Former Celtic striker Chris Sutton predicts the outcome of all 380 Premier League games for BBC Sport – so he seemed an obvious choice to have his say on the title run-in.
“In the reverse fixtures, Arsenal beat all five of the teams they still have to play this season, by an aggregate score of 8-1. I think they will beat all five of them again,” he said.
“Of the teams City have to play, they lost away at Aston Villa in October but beat everyone else.
“But I think City’s games now are tougher, because they have to play Everton and Bournemouth away. I think they will drop points in one of those games and it is more likely to be at Everton.
“For Arsenal, I am expecting them to beat Newcastle on Saturday. Newcastle have given them a good game in the past but they are struggling at the moment and, with what’s at stake, Arsenal should get the job done.
“The tricky game for them is West Ham away. It comes a few days after they play the second leg of their Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid, which makes it even trickier, but I still think they will edge it.
“The way I see it when I’ve worked out the remaining games, Arsenal will win it.
“I know City have just beaten them, which was massive, but I don’t think it is straightforward for Pep Guardiola’s side from here – and I also don’t think Arsenal are as bad as some people are making out.”
But he asks if City’s forwards could be a key factor.
“Could Erling Haaland be the difference this season?” Sutton continued. “I looked at how many Premier League goals he has scored each season since he joined City in 2021 and his totals were 36, 27, 22 and – so far this season – 24.
“Arsenal’s top Premier League scorers over the same period have scored 15, 16, nine and Viktor Gyokeres has got 12 this season.
“I still think Arsenal can win it, I really do. But if you are looking for a difference maker, someone who will kill these games off, then Arsenal had Gyokeres on the bench at the weekend [against City].
“If City do it, that will be why – they have some great attackers, and Rayan Cherki is coming to the fore.
“But I still think Arsenal could just click again, and it will go to the wire.
“City’s goal difference is better than theirs at the minute but they have already played Burnley at home, and beat them 5-1 in September.
“Arsenal have to play Burnley at the Emirates. If they need to boost their goal difference at that stage, then that could be their chance.”
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