The keys to the control of Congress might run through the Midwest, including Iowa, despite the state reliably voting red over the last decade.
There are open U.S. Senate and governor seats in the state for the first time in decades, along with some competitive congressional races that could reshape the balance of power in Washington.
In a midterm election year when voters historically check the party in power, Democrats are feeling bullish about their prospects. They are seizing on the president’s low favorability ratings, growing concerns over healthcare cuts, tariffs, and rising fuel and fertilizer prices hitting the agriculture sector.
Iowa Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand speaks to the media after casting his primary ballot, June 2, 2026 in Des Moines, Iowa. Republican gubernatorial candidate, Rep Randy Feenstra speaks to guests during a campaign event, May 30, 2026, near Sioux Rapids, Iowa.
Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images | Scott Olson/Getty Images
Republicans represent Iowa’s entire congeressional delegation and won a statehouse trifecta in 2016. Statewide, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, but total “no party” voters surpass both in three of the state’s four congressional districts.
On Tuesday, voters from both major parties will decide their nominees in what could be an early test of President Donald Trump’s influence and who might best be suited to defend or challenge his policies.
“All eyes are on Iowa this year,” said Erin Moynihan, a senior adviser to the Iowa Democratic Party. “I think that there’s multiple opportunities in Iowa to win and to really bring back the Democratic majority in D.C.”
An open Senate seat presents an opportunity
For Democrats, flipping the Senate seat held by outgoing Republican Joni Ernst is a tall task. No Democrat has been elected to the seat since 2008 — when Barack Obama won the presidential race in the state. But national groups from both sides of the aisle have already pledged to invest millions in the race, suggesting it could be competitive.
State Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls are fighting for the Democratic nomination. They have sparred over outside spending in the race and ways to address inaction in Washington.
Democratic Senate Candidate Josh Turek speaks to guests during a campaign event, May 29, 2026, in Westside, Iowa. Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Zach Wahls speaks to reporters after casting his early Iowa primary ballot at the Johnson County Administration Building, May 22, 2026, in Iowa City, Iowa.
Scott Olson/Getty Images | Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images
Turek, 47, is campaigning on a “prairie populism” platform and boasts his electability, having prevailed over his Republican opponent in a conservative district. Wahls, 34, is vowing to put “Iowans over insiders” and end corruption.
The victor will likely compete against Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson. She is looking to fend off a challenge from Jim Carlin, a former state senator and Army veteran.
House races could be nail-biters in November
With Hinson running for the Senate, her seat in the 2nd Congressional District is up for grabs. Trump-endorsed former state Rep. Joe Mitchell has significantly outraised his primary opponent, state Sen. Charlie McClintock.
Some Democrats have leaned into their faith. The 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary features state Rep. Lindsay James, a Presbyterian chaplain, and Clint Twedt-Ball, a United Methodist pastor. Kathy Dolter, a retired Army nurse, is also competing. The primaries for the 3rd Congressional District are uncontested, but the general election is likely to be another nail-biter. Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn is defending his seat against state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister.
Democratic nominee for Iowa’s 1st congressional district Christina Bohannan speaks to supporters during an election night watch party at Big Grove Brewery in Iowa City, Iowa, Nov. 5, 2024. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks speaks during her Triple M Tailgate fundraiser in Iowa City, Iowa, Oct. 24, 2025.
Nick Rohlman/The Gazette via AP
In the 1st Congressional District, a third rematch is widely expected between former Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan and GOP incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. In 2024, Miller-Meeks narrowly defeated Bohannan by less than a quarter of a percentage point.
Businessman David Pautsch, who lost to Miller-Meeks in the GOP primary in 2024 with 44% of the vote, is challenging the incumbent again. And in the Democratic primary, Bohannan is competing against Travis Terrell, a healthcare worker who has pitched himself as the anti-establishment candidate.
Democrats have sights set on open governor’s race
Sitting Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is stepping down, opening a competitive governor’s race. Democrats are banking on a strong, well-financed candidate in Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand. He is running unopposed in the primary in hopes of becoming the state’s first Democratic governor since 2011.
Five Republicans are competing in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Trump had not weighed in until Friday, when he endorsed U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, a three-term congressman representing the deep-red northwestern part of the state. In a split from Trump, the conservative group Turning Point Action endorsed one of his opponents, businessman and farmer Zach Lahn, shortly thereafter.
Feenstra entered the race widely considered the front-runner. While some establishment figures support him, some conservatives have pushed back against him for missing debates and failing to inspire the party faithful.
Lahn is also backed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-aligned “Make America Healthy Again” Action Inc. and former GOP Rep. Steve King, who in 2019 drew criticism for comments he made on white supremacy.
Also on the ballot is Adam Steen, a former state Department of Administrative Services director backed by Bob Vander Plaats with The FAMiLY Leader, an influential evangelical Christian group, state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman, a pastor.
If no candidate wins at least 35% of the vote on Tuesday, the state’s party leaders will choose a winner on June 13.
“When the polls close and we have our nominees, we must unite as one team with one mission: to stop the radical Democrats fueled by out-of-state dollars who believe Iowa is for sale,” Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann told ABC News.
In the governor’s race, Sand has already released three TV ads and posted having some $18.2 million in cash on hand.
“He’s not going to be cash poor, which has been the case for Democratic challengers previously,” Kelly Shaw, a political science professor at Iowa State University, told ABC News, adding that November will be “a dogfight.”
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