A plurality of likely California voters support a proposal on the state’s November ballot that would impose a one-time wealth tax on the richest Californians, but the measure is still short of majority support, according to a new NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group poll released Wednesday.
In the poll, 48% said they would vote “yes” on the proposal, while 38% said they would vote “no.” Another 14% said they were undecided.
The 10-point lead for “yes” is outside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side’s support level.
The spread was almost identical among Hispanic likely voters, according to a companion survey of California: 50% said they’d vote “yes,” 40% said they’d vote “no,” and 10% said they were undecided. Both surveys were conducted Sept. 21-24.
The so-called billionaire tax — which will appear on the November ballot as “Proposition 40” — would implement a one-time 5% tax on the assets of Californians with net worths exceeding $1.1 billion, and it would require the state to spend 90% of the new revenue on healthcare. The remaining 10% would be split between education and food assistance programs.
In addition to the one-time tax on those worth more than $1.1 billion, the measure, if it is passed, would implement a smaller tax on individuals worth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. The taxes would apply retroactively to anyone living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026.
The proposal has divided Democratic leaders in California. Prominent proponents — including Rep. Ro Khanna, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire activist who unsuccessfully ran for governor — argue it would help close income inequality gaps and help make up for state budget shortfalls as a result of Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”
Opponents of the ballot measure, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic candidate to succeed him this year, Xavier Becerra, have argued the initiative would drive wealthy investors and tech leaders from the state.
The details of the proposal, which has been led by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, a large California healthcare workers union, have also sparked opposition from many other unions and Democratic groups. Those groups have taken issue with the fact that other progressive policy priorities, like public education and food assistance, would benefit far less than healthcare from the new revenue.
Many Democratic critics have also joined forces with some Republicans, many of whom have long argued that a wealth tax could destabilize California’s revenue streams by causing the ultrarich to flee the state.
But the new poll showed California voters were largely not worried about the prospect of wealthy California residents’ leaving.
A total of 59% of respondents said they were either “not” or “not too” concerned about that potential outcome, while a total of 41% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about rich people’s leaving the state because of the ballot measure. Among Hispanic voters, 62% said they were either “not” or “not too” concerned, while 38% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned.
Notably, the poll also found California voters almost evenly split over whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of Newsom, widely seen as a 2028 presidential hopeful.
Forty-five percent of respondents said they approved of his job performance, while 46% said they disapproved. Another 9% said they weren’t sure. Hispanic voters were more positive about Newsom, with 54% approving and 38% disapproving of his performance as governor.
But when it came to how Democrats felt about a possible Newsom 2028 bid, they overwhelmingly said they’d get behind him. Asked whether they’d be inclined to vote for him if he ran to become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2028, 66% of Democratic respondents said yes, 15% said no, and 19% said they weren’t sure.
Another November ballot measure, Proposition 39, would, if it is passed, require voters to show a government-issued ID when they cast ballots in person, while mail-in voters would have to provide the last four digits of a designated ID used during registration. Among likely voters, 49% said they would support the measure, while 42% said they would vote against it, and 9% said they were undecided.
Asked about Proposition 39, 55% of Hispanic voters said they would vote “yes” in support of it, while 38% said they would vote “no,” and 7% said they were undecided.
California voters strongly said cost of living and the economy were among the most important issues when they were deciding to vote, with 25% saying “cost of living/inflation” was the most important and 23% saying “economy/jobs.” Another 15% said “immigration and enforcement” was the most important, while 11% said healthcare, and 10% said “foreign policy and the Iran War.” No other issue registered at more than 5%.
Amid the focus on economic issues, a plurality of respondents — 42% — said their “personal financial situation” was “the same” as four years earlier. Thirty-six percent said it was “worse” compared with four years earlier, while 22% said it was “better.”
Meanwhile, most respondents (64%) in reliably blue California overwhelmingly said they disapproved of the job President Donald Trump was doing. Another 31% said they approved, and 5% said they weren’t sure.
Asked how much impact they felt the conflict with Iran was having on the U.S. economy, more than two-thirds (67%) of respondents said it was having a “great” deal of impact. Another 16% said it was having “some” impact, while 7% said “not much,” and 8% said “none.”
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