3 warning signs for Republicans in our new poll: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we break down the key takeaways from the new NBC News Decision Desk Poll. Plus, Sahil Kapur takes stock of where congressional Republicans stand on their next big funding bill.

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— Adam Wollner

3 warning signs for Republicans in our new poll

Over the weekend, we released our latest NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey, filled with insights about how Americans at large — and members of Gen Z more specifically — are feeling about President Donald Trump and the state of the country.It also contains several warning signs for Republicans as they seek to defend their congressional majorities in this fall’s midterm elections.

Here are three takeaways. Trump’s approval rating keeps sliding: Across the first two Decision Desk polls of Trump’s second term — one conducted in mid-April, the other in late May and early June — his job rating was consistent: 45% approve, 55% disapprove. Those numbers have gotten steadily worse for him ever since.

Trump hit a new low in the latest Decision Desk survey, with 37% of adults approving of his job performance and 63% disapproving — including 50% who strongly disapprove. Republicans accounted for some of that decline: Trump saw a 4-point drop in approval with that group since the last poll conducted in late January and early February. And the percentage of Republicans who strongly approved of his job performance dropped 6 points.

Trump is well underwater on two key issues: The economy was once again the top issue for Americans in the poll. Asked specifically which economic issue mattered most, inflation and the rising cost of living was easily the top answer. And they gave Trump low marks on the topic: 68% said they disapproved of how Trump is handling inflation and the cost of living. The share of Americans who strongly disapprove (52%) is up 7 points since last summer, the last time the Decision Desk survey asked the question. And the percentage of Republicans who said they approve of Trump’s handling of inflation (73%) is 10 points lower.

The numbers were similar on Iran: 67% disapproved of his handling of the war, including 54% who strongly disapproved. Among Republicans, 74% disapproved. And overall, 61% of adults said the U.S. should not take any further military action in Iran.

Young Americans — Republicans included — are feeling more pessimistic: Eight in 10 members of Gen Z (respondents ages 18-29) said the U.S. is on the wrong track, a 12-point shift from a poll conducted last August and September.

The shift among Gen Z Republicans was particularly notable. In the new poll, they were split on whether the country is on the right track. But last summer, 67% said it was on the right track.

For subscribers: Graham Platner seizes on voter backlash to Iran war to propel his Maine Senate campaign

By Sahil Kapur and Jackie Montalvo

Graham Platner, a combat veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and grew deeply disillusioned with war, is angry about President Donald Trump’s military action in Iran.

“It’s just really sad and frustrating to watch a system and people in power essentially just do the same thing that took me to war in Iraq, but without any of the attempts to trick anybody,” Platner told NBC News after a town hall here.

In the Maine Senate race, the backlash to the war with Iran has played to Platner’s strengths — against both Democratic primary rival and two-term Gov. Janet Mills, who also opposes the war, and longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins, who has so far voted to allow Trump to continue waging it.

Keep reading →

Republicans weigh how big to go on their next party-line funding bill

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

As they plan to approve a budget resolution this week, Senate Republican leaders are facing internal divisions about the scope of their party-line bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol for four years.

Some want to limit the bill to just immigration enforcement. Others want to broaden it out to include other GOP priorities, fearing this will be their last chance to pass a major bill without Democratic support before the midterms.

The party’s ability to resolve the matter will be crucial to the endgame of funding the Department of Homeland Security, which is in a record-long shutdown of 66 days and counting. That’s because House Republicans are holding up the Senate-passed bill to fund the rest of DHS — including TSA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Coast Guard — until the upper chamber moves on the party-line bill.

Adopting the budget on the floor could be enough for Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to allow a House vote on that DHS bill. It would trigger the process of crafting filibuster-proof legislation that can bypass the Senate’s 60-vote rule and cut Democrats out of the process for the purpose of funding ICE and Border Patrol.

But if Senate Republicans get tied up in knots over the budget, the DHS bill could remain stalled. President Donald Trump has issued an executive order to move money around to give back pay to TSA agents so they return to work, but it’s unclear if they’ll get another paycheck without a new law to approve funding.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has said he wants to keep the bill “skinny” and focused solely on ICE and Border Patrol. And Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the Budget Committee chairman, told NBC News that nothing else is guaranteed because it needs to get the votes. Senate Republicans can only afford to lose three of their 53 members on the vote.

“I think we need to put as much in there as we can get,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., who called for including Iran war funding and attempting to add funding-related provisions from the SAVE America Act, a Trump-backed voting bill. “Only thing we’ve gotten done in the last year is the big, beautiful bill. Now we’re gonna have one this year. Let’s put a saddle on it and ride it, and see how much we can get done.”

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., has also called for trying to pass elements of the SAVE America Act in reconciliation, although the author of the bill, Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, insists it was not designed for the budget process and isn’t eligible for it.

That’s not all. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said he’s “vigorously” pushing Republicans to add tax cut provisions to it such as “indexing capital gains to inflation.”

“Right now, leadership’s plan is to have the skinny, anorexic bill that just has funding for ICE and [CBP]. I think that is short-minded, short-sighted,” Cruz said last week on Fox Business. “We shouldn’t miss this opportunity to go big.”

“There ain’t gonna be another reconciliation,” Cruz said. “This is the only train that is leaving the station. If we want to do something big and bold before the midterm elections, we either do it now, or we’re going to end up missing altogether.”

Tuberville similarly predicted there won’t be another Republican-only bill.

“We might as well go home after this one,” he said.

🗞️ Today’s other top stories

🚨 Breaking news: Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer has resigned her post amid a probe from the department’s inspector general over potential misconduct. She’s the third Cabinet secretary this term to leave the Trump administration. Read more →
➡️ Iran war: Iran vowed retaliation after the U.S. seized a cargo ship. Iran also said “no decision has been made” on whether to hold new peace talks. Follow live updates →
🗺️ Redistricting roundup: Even as they’ve been massively outspent in a Democratic-leaning state, Republicans say they still have a fighting chance to defeat a redistricting referendum in Virginia tomorrow. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will hold a tele-rally tonight for opponents of the measure.
🗳️ Vote watch: The Justice Department demanded that Wayne County, Michigan, turn over all ballots from the November 2024 election, an ask the state’s Democratic attorney general called “absurd” and “baseless.” Read more →
🔎 Investigating the investigators: Joe diGenova, a former Trump campaign lawyer who backed the president’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, will head up a Florida-based federal probe into former federal officials who investigated Trump. Read more →
⚖️ In the courts: FBI Director Kash Patel filed a lawsuit against The Atlantic over a story it published Friday that alleged he drinks to excess and has had unexplained absences at the bureau. Read more →
🏫 SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court took up its latest case asserting religious rights claims, agreeing to hear arguments that Colorado should exempt Catholic entities from a nondiscrimination provision in its state-funded preschool program. Read more →
📺 “Meet the Press” interview: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani called his relationship with Trump “honest, direct and productive.” Read more →