2026 NBA draft lottery: Odds for every team, potential picks

Jeremy WooMay 7, 2026, 06:45 AM ET
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The anticipation around the 2026 NBA draft gets real Sunday, as the league gathers in Chicago for the draft lottery (May 10, 3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN).

This class has enough depth at the top to be transformative for many teams, headlined by projected No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa (BYU), and with a strong group of prospects at the top of the board, including Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Cameron Boozer (Duke) and Caleb Wilson (North Carolina). There’s a lot at stake for each lottery team, some of which have spent multiple years positioning themselves to pick high in this draft and others simply in dire need of a star talent.

The NBA’s potential changes to the lottery format next season — which will make rebuilding through the draft less reliable — make the stakes even higher. With the number of top-end prospects available — as well as the uncertainty around the strength of the 2027 and 2028 drafts — this lottery could alter the trajectory and look of the league for the next decade.

Here’s the outlook for every team in the lottery, with intel on their offseason ahead and a best prospect fit for each if the order holds constant. History suggests that won’t be what happens, of course.

Here’s what you need to know as we look ahead to Sunday:

Jump to a team:
ATL | BKN | CHA | CHI | DAL
GS | IND | MEM | MIA | MIL
OKC | SAC | UTAH | WAS

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 1: AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU

As it stands, Dybantsa is the most likely top pick in any lottery scenario. He would be an extraordinarily clean match for Washington, however. The Wizards are expected to be competitive next season after trading for Trae Young and Anthony Davis for little cost, other than their large contracts. They lost 26 of their final 27 games and ensured they’ll pick within the top five in this draft.

This would be a favorable situation for Dybantsa, who is joining a team with veteran star power, which would take early pressure off him to dominate shot-creation duties and allow him to explore his considerable potential as a defender, where he can better apply his energy. The Wizards have several young developing wings, including Kyshawn George, Will Riley, Tre Johnson and Bilal Coulibaly, but Dybantsa would immediately become the team’s centerpiece.

What I’m hearing on the Wizards: The team has been mired in a protracted rebuild that has spanned multiple front offices and head coaches, and Washington hasn’t finished above .500 since 2017-18. While the Wizards appear positioned for a short-term step forward, they still have to determine whether they want to make a long-term commitment to Young, who holds a player option for next season, and Davis, who has one next summer.

Regardless, the team’s future hinges on the selection and development of whomever the Wizards draft, as there’s no true franchise-caliber prospect on the roster. Dropping to No. 5 would be disappointing, but drafting one of the top guards there would be a reasonable consolation.

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BYU’s AJ Dybantsa announces he will enter the NBA draft and finish his college degree online.

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 2: Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas

Peterson is a No. 1-caliber talent and an excellent value if he’s on the board at No. 2, but he would be a particularly strong fit in Indiana. He’s the most dynamic shooter in the draft and would greatly benefit from playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton, one of the league’s most unselfish players. Haliburton could get Peterson clean looks, while also giving him space to develop as an on-ball playmaker. That dream pairing would have immense offensive potential, assuming Haliburton is back to full strength in time (torn Achilles), and could evolve into one of the NBA’s best backcourts.

The Pacers could lean toward Caleb Wilson over Cameron Boozer if they select at No. 3, which would present an interesting decision. The presence of slower-footed Ivica Zubac as their starting center might make Wilson a stronger match if they want to continue playing a faster style.

What I’m hearing on the Pacers (and Clippers): Indiana’s front office has a lot riding on this week, after taking a calculated risk at the deadline, trading this pick to the Clippers as part of the Zubac deal while maintaining top-four protections. If it drops to No. 5 or No. 6, it will convey to L.A. These are exceptionally high stakes for a team less than a year removed from making the Finals and stuck in limbo until Haliburton’s return. Adding a top prospect to the mix would create a clear, sustainable competitive window coming off a down season.

The Pacers already had a major stroke of luck by even re-acquiring this pick from New Orleans last year, for the 23rd pick in the 2025 draft — a deal that took place during the Finals, and before Haliburton’s torn Achilles. Indiana has been tanking-averse historically, and regardless of how the lottery falls, expect them to push for the playoffs in 2027 as the roster returns to full strength.

If the Clippers end up getting this pick, it would be a massive windfall headed into an uncertain offseason. They don’t regain full control of their draft picks until 2030 and are awaiting the potential ramifications of the NBA’s investigation into the team’s partnership with Aspiration. Whether the Clippers push forward with Kawhi Leonard or decide to pivot younger could hinge on whether they get this pick. Another topic to monitor: How the presence of the 26-year-old Darius Garland might impact their decision with several talented point guards likely on the board.

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 3: Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke

Boozer is a plug-and-play starter who likely would become the Nets’ best player in short order, giving them a young centerpiece who fits the criteria of size, skill and feel that have guided Brooklyn’s recent drafts. The Nets rostered five first-round picks last season in what amounted to a developmental gap season for the NBA’s youngest roster, as they readied for another spin in this year’s lottery. They can pick no lower than No. 7, and this is their most realistic pathway to adding a young star.

Although the Nets badly need a point guard, Boozer’s playmaking skills would help mitigate that need and allow them to address the position by other means. He wouldn’t solve all of their issues, but he’d give them an offensive focal point and serious, tone-setting personality to build around.

What I’m hearing on the Nets: The Nets have planned to shift toward competing next season, with the Rockets holding swap rights to their 2027 first-rounder. The question is how aggressively they will go about it, with optionality thanks to their cap space, wealth of future draft assets and a clean long-term salary sheet. Brooklyn needs an infusion of star power, one way or another, to push back toward relevance in the East.

Suffice to say the lottery stakes are high for Brooklyn, which might have to go back to the drawing board if it doesn’t walk away with a franchise-level prospect. This is not viewed around the league as a strong free agency class, but the Nets can be opportunistic and get active on the trade market if they choose to make a run at an available star.

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No. 1 pick odds: 11.5% | Top-four pick odds: 45.2%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 4: Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina

Wilson rounds out the consensus top four as a serious upside swing, but he is further away from approaching his ceiling than the other three top prospects. The infusion of talent and energy he would bring could be attractive for Utah, even with a crowded frontcourt that includes Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen and restricted free agent Walker Kessler. Taking a best-available approach is prudent as the Jazz shift toward being competitive next season.

The Jazz can and should take a long look at perimeter options in the Nos. 4-6 range, although the emergence of Keyonte George as a starting-caliber ball handler and the presence of Ace Bailey — the No. 5 overall pick last year — lessen that need.

What I’m hearing on the Jazz: Utah’s big swing came at the deadline with the acquisition of Jackson from Memphis, signaling a push toward the playoffs and sending the Grizzlies swap rights to their first-round pick. The Jazz don’t have cap space and have tied up a lot of money in Jackson and Markkanen. Improving their defense and coaxing development out of their young players are the biggest short-term growth areas.

As is the case for the majority of teams in this lottery, the Jazz’s most direct path to adding a franchise-changing talent is the draft. Their floor should be higher next season, but the long-term ceiling hinges on internal growth from George, Bailey and whomever they select with this pick.

No. 1 pick odds: 11.5% | Top-four pick odds: 45.2%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 5: Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas

If the Kings’ pick falls outside the top four, they will become an obvious landing spot for a guard, with Acuff the closest thing to a plug-and-play starter on the board here. He proved to be a major offensive talent at Arkansas, and while his ball dominance isn’t the cleanest fit with Sacramento’s returning talent, the Kings have to think about the big picture. Coach Doug Christie went on record in his exit interviews about how badly his team needs a point guard.

Acuff is polarizing for scouts due to his lack of defensive impact, but there’s little doubt about his ability to score and make plays. Whichever team selects him will have to build the right defensive infrastructure around him to have a chance at contending. General manager Scott Perry is a Detroit native like Acuff and will presumably take a long look at him.

What I’m hearing on the Kings: Hitting on a star talent in this draft is critical for the health of the franchise: The Kings are turning over the league’s fourth-oldest roster, while sitting in the luxury tax with several expensive veteran starters and not much to trade for value. The good news is Sacramento controls its own picks, but the franchise has made the playoffs just once in the past 20 years. The appetite for an extended rebuild has to be dampened by the NBA’s potential lottery changes.

There’s no single move that can solve all of the Kings’ woes, but drafting and developing a new face of the franchise is the most important decision this offseason.

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No. 1 pick odds: 9.0% | Top-four pick odds: 37.2%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 6: Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois

Wagler built momentum over the course of Illinois’ Final Four run and has a strong case as a top-five prospect — he could get serious looks higher than this spot. His unusual trajectory from virtual unknown to top prospect, coupled with his outstanding feel for winning basketball and plus positional size, has helped set him apart in a terrific guard draft. Wagler’s size and perimeter versatility make him a solid fit for most teams, but he would optimally land somewhere that can be patient as he adjusts to the physicality of the NBA.

The Grizzlies would be an intriguing landing spot because they could give him extended on-ball reps if they move on from Ja Morant this offseason. With the way the board has shaped up, this year could be an opportunity to select a future floor leader as they transition younger and continue to be patient.

What I’m hearing on the Grizzlies: Morant’s future in Memphis remains the central question hanging over the franchise this summer. The question now is whether the Grizzlies will be able to find satisfactory value in a trade, which didn’t materialize at February’s trade deadline. With the NBA landscape set to change quite a bit over the next year — between the talent in this class and the impending changes to the lottery format — taking a chance on Morant might become more appealing to franchises left searching for star talent after things shake out.

Memphis has made building through the draft a high priority under general manager Zach Kleiman and will continue to do so, having stockpiled additional future first-round picks over the past year through trading away Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. They also hold the No. 16 pick, giving them options in the middle of Round 1.

No. 1 pick odds: 6.8%* | Top-four pick odds: 29.3%*

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 7: Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston

The Hawks had a lot to feel good about coming off their most successful season in a decade with this lottery pick in hand, until a 51-point drubbing by the New York Knicks bounced them from the first round of the playoffs and likely inspired additional soul-searching. A positive result on lottery night would certainly lessen that sting, with this pick infamously obtained from New Orleans on the night of the 2025 draft, for the rights to Derik Queen.

If the Hawks don’t move up, Flemings could be attractive on multiple levels, addressing a position of need while also bringing upgraded athleticism and speed and tone-setting tenacity to their backcourt mix. Mikel Brown Jr., who is a superior shooter, would also likely draw strong consideration at this slot.

What I’m hearing on the Hawks: The outcome of this lottery will have team-building ramifications for where Atlanta wants to go from here, with a team option for Jonathan Kuminga next season and CJ McCollum hitting free agency. If their pick jumps into the top four, making room for that player in the rotation should become a roster-building priority. General manager Onsi Saleh went on record with reporters last week, saying the Hawks don’t plan to skip steps building out and would like to make both their first-round picks.

Atlanta’s core is still on the younger side and the front office under Saleh has been willing to take a patient approach. The need for more shot creators, perimeter shooting and athleticism, however, should guide where the Hawks go from here.

(*Atlanta has rights to the better of New Orleans’ and Milwaukee’s picks. The combined odds of landing a No. 1 or a top-four pick are 9.8% and 43.2%, respectively.)

No. 1 pick odds: 6.7% | Top-four pick odds: 29.0%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 8: Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville

Brown has a lot to gain in the predraft process. He needs to answer the lingering questions around his freshman year, after coming into the season viewed as a top-five candidate. He’s an offensive talent with dynamic shotmaking prowess and passing vision, and teams feel he is capable of much more than he showed at Louisville. His reputation is built on his showings with USA Basketball over the past couple of years that have kept him in the top-10 discussion.

With Masai Ujiri now at the helm in Dallas, the Mavericks have set the table to build a winner around Cooper Flagg. They don’t control their own pick for the next four drafts, placing added weight on the result of this lottery, which might be their clearest chance at finding a second star that aligns with Flagg’s age timeline. If the Mavs don’t move up, walking away from this draft with a young, starting-caliber point guard prospect to pair with Flagg long-term would be a consolation prize.

What I’m hearing on the Mavericks: What kind of timetable Ujiri opts for in building around Flagg, who is still just 19 years old, stands as the biggest question hanging over Dallas’ offseason. Kyrie Irving will return next season (ACL), and the Mavericks have the talent to surpass this season’s 26 wins. But they are also likely multiple moves from being a playoff team, and any future contending chance aligning with Flagg’s prime. It can’t be stressed enough how far ahead of schedule Flagg showed to be on the offensive end this season — a development many around the NBA feel gives him a chance to develop into being one of the league’s best players.

What Dallas likely won’t want to do is straddle two timelines, meaning that finding trade value for a healthy Irving likely becomes prudent if he gets back to top form. How Ujiri evaluates the rest of the roster and how proactive he decides to be in upgrading the team in his first offseason should be telling.

The Western Conference is a perennial gauntlet, and the Mavericks have to be taking the big-picture view on how to time their window with Flagg, particularly with the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs contending sustainably around young star talent.

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No. 1 pick odds: 4.5% | Top-four pick odds: 20.3%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 9: Brayden Burries, PG/SG, Arizona

After moving on from Arturas Karnisovas, the Bulls tabbed Hawks senior VP Bryson Graham as the next head of basketball operations, with ownership empowering Graham to lead a patient rebuild. Burries should be appealing if the Bulls don’t move up, with his versatility and well-rounded skill set at either guard spot, a viable fit next to Josh Giddey, who prefers to have the ball in his hands.

Another player the Bulls could consider is the 7-foot-2 Aday Mara, with a long-term center being the most glaring void on the roster. It’s fair to wonder what the appetite is for another slower-footed five after a half-decade of Nikola Vucevic, but this will boil down to the new leadership’s vision for the team.

What I’m hearing on the Bulls: Graham has a strong background in player evaluation, helping lead a front office that largely drafted well in New Orleans before spending the past year in Atlanta. He will have a runway to play to his strengths, with the Bulls needing time for internal development from Matas Buzelis, Noa Essengue and other young players, plus a need to start accumulating future assets to strengthen their long-term position. Chicago controls all its own future firsts and is multiple moves away from being a playoff team again. It also projects to have significant cap space this summer.

After getting minimal value for Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu at the trade deadline, taking a beat to evaluate the roster is prudent, although it might not be easy to swallow for a fan base that has seen the Bulls make the playoffs only twice in the past decade. Chicago also has the 15th pick in this draft, allowing it to take two swings in a strong class.

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No. 1 pick odds: 0%* | Top-four pick odds: 13.9%*

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 10: Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee

The Bucks are a long shot to move into the top four. Still, they haven’t drafted in the lottery since 2016, and the direction they take with this pick will say something about their intentions moving forward, with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future uncertain and Taylor Jenkins signing on to coach the team.

Nailing this pick will be critical, as Milwaukee has little to show for its past handful of drafts and rolled out a bare-bones roster last season around Antetokounmpo. Although the Bucks’ backcourt is a glaring need, this has to be a best-available spot as they consider what the future looks like without their superstar. Landing a talented developmental player such as Ament in the back half of the lottery is a valid swing, with Karim Lopez and Labaron Philon Jr. also likely to draw consideration.

What I’m hearing on the Bucks: The Bucks are navigating an uncertain offseason as Antetokounmpo enters the final year of his contract. How frayed that relationship is after the end-of-season saga around his injury, as well as what they can ask for him on the open market, are the guiding questions Milwaukee has to answer before moving forward. Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam said on Wednesday that the team hoped to have a decision on Antetokounmpo’s future prior to the draft on June 23.

Trying to build another contender around him seems untenable, but the Bucks also don’t regain control of their own picks until 2031, leaving them in purgatory until they determine a direction. Adding the right young player with this pick will be massively important to that goal.

(*Milwaukee owns the worse of its own and New Orleans’ picks, and cannot win the lottery because Atlanta has swap rights to the better of the two. The odds of a scenario in which both of those picks move up — giving the Bucks either pick Nos. 2, 3 or 4 — is 2.6%.)

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No. 1 pick odds: 2% | Top-four pick odds: 9.4%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 11: Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers

Similar to Milwaukee, the direction Golden State takes here will be indicative of where the franchise’s goals lie. The Warriors can try to continue to maximize the final phase of Stephen Curry’s career with a more NBA-ready prospect, or they could take a longer view. Assuming they don’t move up, this would become an interesting juncture in the draft, with the top freshmen all potentially off the board.

Lopez might marry those two goals, with a good mix of size, skill, feel and pro experience for a teenage prospect. On the other end of the age spectrum, forward Yaxel Lendeborg should get a long look from the Warriors because of his versatility to plug in right away.

What I’m hearing on the Warriors: Golden State’s offseason questions begin at the top, with Steve Kerr’s future unresolved. Whether to push forward to try and contend with 38-year-old Curry, after missing the playoffs twice in the past three seasons (and with Jimmy Butler III recovering from ACL surgery), is a difficult question.

With all their draft picks back (they owe their 2030 first to Dallas only if it’s Nos. 21-30), this is a window for the Warriors to pick a direction, although the changes to the lottery likely make it harder to justify a full-on rebuild over the next couple of seasons.

No. 1 pick odds: 1.5% | Top-four pick odds: 7.1%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 12: Yaxel Lendeborg, PF/C, Michigan

Lendeborg will turn 24 before his rookie season, making him old for a first-round pick, but his NBA-level versatility, size and skill at either forward spot should help him break the mold and carve out a solid role. The Thunder are one of the teams best-equipped to justify picking an older player with a high-value first, and they don’t have a forward on the roster with his Swiss-Army-knife-type skill set.

Another player worth consideration here is Lendeborg’s Michigan teammate Aday Mara, a more left-field type of move that would allow the Thunder to play super-sized, super-skilled lineups while pairing him with Chet Holmgren.

What I’m hearing on the Thunder: Barring trades, Oklahoma City might have only one open roster slot rolling over (Isaiah Hartenstein and Luguentz Dort have team options, as does Kenrich Williams, who could become the most expendable player under contract). The Thunder also own the No. 17 pick, and it’s hard to envision them making both. History says it will be difficult to trade up very far in a lottery class rife with talent. A more feasible scenario might be the Thunder seeking to deal the 17th pick for a future draft asset.

The theme of this impressive OKC run has been continuity and development, with Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams all signed long-term. How the Thunder manage the supporting cast, starting with Hartenstein and Dort this summer, will be an important big-picture subplot for one of the league’s tentpole contenders.

No. 1 pick odds: 1% | Top-four pick odds: 4.8%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 13: Labaron Philon Jr., PG, Alabama

Philon put together an outstanding sophomore season at Alabama and is set to draw looks in the late lottery, after withdrawing from the draft at the final hour a year ago. While more of a microwave scorer than pure point guard, his ability to generate clean looks off the dribble and solid positional size are real separators.

The Heat missed the playoffs, losing in the play-in round, and haven’t picked in the lottery since drafting Tyler Herro in 2019. They could benefit from adding another shot creator to their backcourt group, with Philon capable of propping up the offense for stretches.

What I’m hearing on the Heat: Even with the lottery reform, Miami has historically been tank-averse and figures to explore options to improve the team. Whether that means trying to acquire a star such as Giannis Antetokounmpo in a trade, or simply positioning themselves to have cap space and be players in what could be a starry free agent class in 2027, which Pat Riley went on record saying to reporters last week.

Assuming their pick doesn’t jump into the top four, how Miami — a team that has traditionally had success in free agency — squares those goals will be interesting to watch. They owe their 2027 first to Charlotte with top-14 protections, which becomes unprotected in 2028 if not conveyed.

No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-four pick odds: 2.4%

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 14: Aday Mara, C, Michigan

Mara is the closest thing this draft has to a unicorn big man, standing 7-foot-2 with excellent passing skills and a positional size and skill advantage at center. If he can become a workable jump shooter — which was a goal for him behind the scenes at Michigan — his upside scenarios become very intriguing, making him a consideration for any team in need of a center.

Charlotte is one such team, having found unexpected value at that position with Moussa Diabate but lacking a dynamic offensive frontcourt player they can play through. Adding Mara would give them a very different look, with his playmaking likely to make life easier for their perimeter players.

What I’m hearing on the Hornets: Charlotte has momentum coming off the franchise’s best season in a decade, with the addition of Rookie of the Year runner-up Kon Knueppel and a successful fit with coach Charles Lee helping point the arrow in the right direction. The Hornets also own the 18th overall pick, allowing them to take multiple meaningful swings in this draft, as well as future draft capital.

The Hornets have remained patient in building out the team, with Knueppel and Brandon Miller giving them a pair of talented perimeter scorers on the wings. Charlotte can be patient as their young nucleus continues to develop, with LaMelo Ball taking a step forward this season from an availability perspective and on the defensive end.

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