Most pundits are convinced that Wolves and Burnley are down, and they would both need something spectacular to stay up from here.
Burnley conceded the fewest goals in the Championship last season, but this season they have the worst defensive record in the Premier League. Wolves have improved under Rob Edwards, but I believe they have got too much to do.
That leaves four other teams in my view – West Ham, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds – trying to avoid the final relegation spot.
So, how do I think this will unravel, and what would I suggest these clubs try to avoid finishing 18th?
For starters, home form is absolutely vital and an extra emphasis must be directed at your club’s supporters on this single point.
I can recall an early conversation with Sir Alex Ferguson in my first season in the Premier League with Stoke City.
His assessment was that our slim chances of survival would be determined by our home form, or in his words ‘you are not going to get many points away from the Britannia Stadium’.
He told me our best chance of staying up was making it a place no-one wants to go. He said that if any of the top teams go there and praise you, you’re not doing it right. I took that on board and I don’t think I’ve ever been at a football stadium where the crowd and the team were so together.
It helped us that a gambling company paid punters up who had bet on us going down after our first game of the season, a 3-1 defeat at Bolton.
I responded by positioning their assumptions as a direct affront to not only the football club but the city as well.
From that moment onwards, clubs turned up at our stadium and faced a team which was 30,000 strong, and which no doubt played an enormous part in us successfully staying up that season.
It was a remarkable achievement, but only made possible because of our supporters. One great example of that was at the Brit against an emerging Manchester City side at the end of January.
We went into that game without a win in nine league games and in the relegation zone, and went down to 10 men in the first half but then scored just before half-time.
In the second half, whatever we did, every tackle, pass or interception was greeted with unbelievable acclaim from the stands. We went on to win 1-0 and afterwards I was asked about my tactics, to which I remember saying no team could have beaten 30,000 of us today, because that’s what it felt like.
That game was the start of a run of four wins and two draws at home, which took us to safety by the end of April.
But as much as a positive atmosphere can get you over the line, if the fans are not behind you then playing at home won’t help you – it can hinder the players instead.
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