The 2026 men’s basketball tournament round of 16 is here and for my money, it’s college basketball nirvana.
The trade-off for very few upsets early on is premium games for four straight days to decide who advances to the Final Four. This is the best, most competitive basketball you will see all year. Whether your brackets are busted or not, you’re still going to be treated to some high-level hoops.
Throughout the tourney, I will provide my best bets for each round as well as my picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.
Here are my selections for the round of 16.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
at time of Wednesday’s publication and subject to change.
Thursday’s games
(2) Purdue team total OVER 77.5 (-127) vs. (11) Texas
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS)
I had my sights set on the Boilermakers minus the points here, but early money coming on Texas has forced me off. I’ll look to an alternate market here with the team total. Purdue is the most efficient offense in the country, and the Longhorns don’t really have a defense that matches up well, especially at the 3-point line where Purdue is eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting and the Longhorns are 253rd in 3-point shooting defense.
Sharp bettors believe Texas can hang in this game, and if the Longhorns do, it’s because of their scoring and facing an average Purdue defense. Texas is unlikely to win a game that stays under the total. That favors Purdue mostly because of its pace, which is a diabolically slow 324th in the country. The Boilermakers make you work extra hard on defense and then take your soul by finishing off with a bucket or a 3. It’s that pace, which will slow even more if Texas isn’t scoring, and that’s how Purdue doesn’t get there. But I believe that the Longhorns’ offense has found a real rhythm in the tournament so far and will help push Purdue over this number.
(2) Houston -3.5 (-105) vs. (3) Illinois
Game time: 10:05 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
I missed the best of the number here at the open when it was -2.5, but it only confirms my feeling about Houston being the better team here, especially on defense. Illinois is the second-most efficient offense in the country, but this will be a game of limited possessions as both teams are in the bottom 100 in adjusted tempo, with Houston being in the bottom 15. Both teams force opponents into long possessions on offense and bad shots.
Where the Cougars will decide this game is at the 3-point line. Illinois gets more than 50% of its points from 3-pointers. Five of the eight Illini losses come against teams in the top 100 in 3-point shooting defense. Houston is 44th in the country in that category. The Cougars offense should do enough here and they will have the benefit of a very heavy home crowd with the game in Houston.
Eliminator pick: (2) Purdue
The Longhorns’ run has been impressive, but here’s where it comes to an end. Texas doesn’t have the shooting to keep up with Purdue … and its shooting has gone up in each of the tournament games. There’s likely some regression coming here.
How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge.
Friday’s games
(1) Duke vs. (5) St. John’s +6.5 (-108)
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Red Storm have advanced to the second week of tourney play for the first time since 1999 and in just the third season under Rick Pitino. Surprisingly enough, they are here because of their defense, which is ranked in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency for the first time since their last round of 16 appearance. The Johnnies can match Duke defensively and their athleticism can contain Duke’s Cameron Boozer. They held Kansas star Darryn Peterson to 5-of-15 shooting. I see a similar result here for Boozer.
The total for this game is 142.5. Duke has seen just 10 totals this low all season. It has gone over this number just twice, and one of them was because it scored 100 points against Notre Dame. The correlation here is that if Duke is limited in scoring, that favors the Johnnies as a three-possession underdog. Rick Pitino is also 6-2 against the spread in the NCAA tournament as an underdog of five points or more; that includes 3-0 as a No. 6 seed or better. This is a game I think St. John’s can win outright, so it’s worth it to sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.
Eliminator pick: (6) Tennessee
Iowa State was able to get past Kentucky without its best player, but I’ll bet against it happening two times against high-level opponents. Even if Joshua Jefferson does play, Iowa State’s offense won’t do much against the Volunteers’ defense. All of the Cyclones’ losses except one have been to teams with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking in the top 35. Tennessee is 14th.
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