Pamela Maldonado
Multiple Authors
Golf had been trending in the right direction, but last week was a reminder of how quickly this sport humbles you. So I’m dialing things back here, especially in a weak field where last year’s winner shot 17 under.
This is one of those tournaments where you’re decoding recent form, comp courses and course fit, and none of it correlates or lines up. It’s a true puzzle.
I narrowed my list to players who keep the ball in play, clean up around the greens and avoid big numbers. In spots like this, I’m less focused on winners and more focused on placement equity.
Sometimes the edge is knowing when to play defense, manage exposure and protect the bankroll while the puzzle plays out.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and subject to change.
Best bets
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Top 30 (+118)
Full odds:
Top 20 +168
Top 10 +360
Top 5 +760
To win +4700
If PGA National rewards touch, patience and precision over power, that’s exactly Bezuidenhout’s lane. He’s one of the better short-game players in the field, ranked fourth in strokes gained around the green and second best in the field in putting, with strong Bermuda splits to back it up. His strength is his ability to convert mid-range putts and save par when greens are misses, which could come in handy here with water in play and scrambling at a premium, where he’s top five, and top 20 in bogey avoidance, two stats that directly translate to PGA National.
Off the tee, Bezuidenhout finds fairways at a solid clip, plays positional golf and is accurate enough to give him clean looks into greens for birdie opportunities. This is a profile play. If his irons are manageable and his usual short game shows up, his cut-making consistency speaks to baseline reliability. If the putter heats up, Bezuidenhout has a realistic path to go low.
Andrew Putnam: Top 40 (+144)
Full odds:
Top 30 +255
Top 20 +375
Top 10 +880
Top 5 +2050
To win +16500
If you have control, short-game execution and limit mistakes, you have a shot at PGA National. Over his recent sample, Putnam is top 10 around the green, top 20 in putting and top five in both bogey avoid and driving accuracy. This course forces missed greens and awkward Bermuda lies. Putnam consistently saves pars while keeping rounds intact when others start leaking strokes.
He just finished T2 at American Express but missed the cut at Torrey Pines. I don’t weigh that missed cut against him because Torrey heavily favors length and elite ball striking. PGA National doesn’t so the bounce-back setup fits Putnam far better.
Win equity may be a reach but for placement, Putnam makes cuts, avoids doubles and grinds into solid finishes by staying in play and converting inside 10 feet. He keeps the ball in front of him, cleans up around the greens and limits damage. The outright is an insane price, the same as a lottery ticket. Think coffee money, not conviction money.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Both Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) and Andrew Putnam ($6,800) would also make solid DFS plays. Betting and fantasy can be mistaken for different identities but they’re both probability exercises built off the same inputs: course fit, pricing inefficiencies and outcome possibilities.
The question becomes overexposure. If both miss the cut, you lose both in betting and DFS. Correlated upside works the same with correlated downside. If you’re comfortable with that, then that’s simply part of bankroll management.
DFS player to fade
Nicolai Højgaard, $9,400: He was actually the first player on my long list but the deeper I went the more he flipped to a fade. The ball striking ceiling is real but the supporting numbers are hard to ignore: 91st around the green, 80th in scrambling and 98th in fairways gained. That’s a dangerous mix on a narrow, penal course where missed greens and recovery shots are part of the deal.
Analysts have pointed out the same things; the driver can get loose, his ball striking comes and goes and the short game isn’t something you can count on every week. When he’s aggressive and the fairways are wide, the upside looks great. When he’s even slightly off, poor decisions and wayward drives start stacking quickly.
If this were a driver-heavy shootout, I’d be much more on board with the odds and DFS price, but PGA National is bogey sensitive and puts a premium on cleaning things up around the greens. The upside is tempting, but this just isn’t the spot.
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