What history does suggest is that a perfect group stage record rarely equates to winning the World Cup.
Taking out the group stages that did not consist of three fixtures for everyone and converting all results so that they follow the three points-per-win model, that leaves 17 World Cups to analyse.
In those 17, only the aforementioned triumphs of Brazil and France are the three examples of nine group stage points leading to World Cup wins.
A win for England against Panama would see them finish on seven points, the number that has led to the most World Cup winners based on group stage form.
Seven of the 17 winners have earned seven points (including conversions from the two-point era). That total includes the wins of France and Germany in 2018 and 2014 respectively.
A six-point finish – which England cannot mathematically achieve, but Scotland can – has produced four winners. Argentina’s triumph four years ago saw them earn six points following a shock group stage defeat to Saudi Arabia.
A defeat for England against Panama would see them end on four points and potentially risk missing out on progressing altogether, albeit an incredibly unlikely scenario. A team with four points in the group stage (after conversions) has never won the World Cup.
In 1982, hosts Spain produced one of the World Cup’s greatest shocks by winning the competition. During the group stage, they drew all three of their fixtures. It is the only time a team has won the group stage following three points from three games (after conversions).
Group stage points obtained by World Cup winners since 1958 (including conversions for all victories to three points)
9 points – 3 winners
7 points – 7 winners
6 points – 4 winners
5 points – 2 winners
4 points – 0 winners
3 points – 1 winners
This article is the latest from BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything team.
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