Why Graham Platner’s margin matters in the Maine: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

It’s yet another primary day, with voters in four states heading to the polls. Steve Kornacki zeroes in on Maine, where Graham Platner has faced a series of controversies heading into the Democratic Senate primary. Plus, Jane C. Timm digs into the unfounded election fraud claims that are flooding California.

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— Adam Wollner

Why Graham Platner’s margin matters in the Maine Senate primary

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Graham Platner will almost certainly win the Democratic nomination for Senate in Maine today. But will he do so convincingly?

A resounding margin would allow Platner to argue that rank-and-file Democrats are squarely behind him even in the face of scandal, complicating any potential effort to replace him with a different general election nominee.

A weak showing, however, would only intensify concerns that some party leaders have been raising about Platner’s viability against Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

There are three names on the Democratic primary ballot: Platner, Gov. Janet Mills and David Costello, who ran as the party’s nominee against independent Sen. Angus King in 2024. Andrea LaFlamme, a left-wing activist, is running as a write-in candidate.

Presumably, the lion’s share of the non-Platner vote will go to Mills, who suspended her campaign this spring when Platner pulled far ahead of her in polling. But as controversy rocked Platner campaign in the last week, Mills has pointedly reminded voters that her name is still on the ballot and that they are free to vote for her.

Working in Platner’s favor is that early voting began on May 11, more than two weeks before The Wall Street Journal reported on his history of sexually explicit text messaging with several women early in his marriage. It was another five days after that that The New York Times reported on behavior three of his ex-girlfriends described as “toxic” and “unsettling.”

By last Friday, the day the Times story was published, more than 30,000 Democrats had already cast ballots. Typically, about 25% of all Democratic primary votes in Maine are cast early.

So Platner likely banked a lot of votes in the middle and late part of May, when he was the presumptive nominee. This could blunt at least some of the impact of any late movement away from him. It will be worth watching if there is a significant difference between how Platner fared among early voters and those who waited until Election Day to vote.

What would a bad showing for Platner be? A good gauge may be a University of New Hampshire poll conducted in mid-May, after Mills dropped out and before the recent round of Platner controversies erupted. In that poll, Platner was supported by 76% of likely Democratic primary voters. If his number lands there or above tonight, it’s a good sign for him. But if it comes in under that, and especially if it comes in well under, then he may have even more trouble on his hands.

Assuming Platner does win the primary, the next key date will be July 14. Under Maine law, a party’s nominee can withdraw anytime before then and be replaced on the ballot.

Earlier today, Steve answered reader questions about the midterms and more on a livestream for subscribers. Subscribers can watch the video on demand here.

🗳️ More primary day reading: In addition to Maine, South Carolina, Nevada and North Dakota are holding primaries today. Here’s what to watch →

For subscribers: California’s slow vote count and Trump’s unfounded fraud claims offer preview of November’s midterms

By Jane C. Timm

A perfect storm of conditions in California has led to an increasingly loud chorus of unfounded voter fraud claims over the past week from President Donald Trump and his allies, alarming election experts who warn it could be a preview of what’s to come in this fall’s midterms.

One week after polls closed in California’s June 2 primaries, many of the state’s counties have yet to report their full results. In the crowded governor’s race, voters are still awaiting word on who will be Democrat Xavier Becerra‘s general election opponent.

And in the contest for Los Angeles mayor, NBC News projected last night that Councilwoman Nithya Raman will face incumbent and fellow Democrat Karen Bass in a November runoff. Raman had steadily made gains on and eventually passed former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, a registered Republican, in the vote count in the days since last Tuesday’s primary.

Keep reading →

Trump says Iran shot down U.S. helicopter near Strait of Hormuz, vows response

By Chantal Da Silva, Courtney Kube, Mosheh Gains and Dennis Romero

Iran shot down an American military helicopter while it was patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said today, adding the United States would “respond to this attack.”

“The Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache Helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz,” the president wrote on Truth Social, adding that he had been briefed by the military on the situation.

“There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured,” Trump said. “Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.”

Separately, a U.S. official said current indications were that the Apache was brought down by an Iranian drone. Earlier, U.S. Central Command said the two crew members were rescued by an unmanned boat — a first for American forces — after the aircraft went down off the coast of Oman.

Trump told “Meet the Press” in an interview that aired Sunday that he didn’t consider troops in the region to be in danger.

“We have the best offense anyone’s ever seen. So I don’t consider it danger,” Trump said, adding he didn’t think he’d be sending troops back to the U.S. because they may still be needed. “But I think we’ll keep them there until such time as we have a completion.”

Read more →

🗞️ Today’s other top stories

🏛️ Fraud czar: Vice President JD Vance announced that he is referring Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and state Attorney General Keith Ellison to the Justice Department for a criminal fraud investigation involving social services programs. Read more→
💲 Fund fallout: Trump drew sharp rebukes from both sides of the aisle on Capitol Hill after he left the door open to taxpayer payouts for rioters who assaulted police officers during the Jan. 6 attack in an interview with “Meet the Press.” Read more →
⚖️ In the courts: A federal judge struck down a $100,000 fee Trump imposed on new H-1B visas for highly skilled foreign workers. Read more→
💰 First on NBC News: The Trump-backed super PAC MAGA Inc. will hold a $1 million-per-person fundraiser the day before he hosts Ultimate Fighting Championship matches on the White House grounds. Read more→
🏀 Finals fever: Trump was booed by the crowd at Madison Square Garden during the national anthem at Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Read more→