Rachel Kryshak
Multiple Authors
The NHL draft lottery balls have been drawn, and perhaps the funniest result imaginable has come to pass.
Many fanbases were ready to clown on the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fans for dropping to No. 6 and giving that pick to their division rival Boston Bruins. Instead, the 12 ball flew up the chute and the Leafs, after missing the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, will pick first overall, as their first-rounder is top-five protected.
The San Jose Sharks, who have some of the best young talent in the NHL, moved up to pick second, leaving the Vancouver Canucks — who finished last in the league by a fair margin — to pick third.
All of this has to sting for Vancouver, who will watch a Pacific Division get better, and their cross-continent rivals select the first overall prospect.
The first iteration of my draft rankings — which is largely projections model-driven — will drive lots of this first mock draft.
Note: These are the selections I would make if tasked with the decision, considering best player available, organizational need and timeline. Closer to the draft, a new ranking that accounts for the eye test and anecdotal information will drop, and there will also be a mock draft that is closer to what will happen, based on reporting intel.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State University (NCAA)
If you watched the litany of reactions from fans across the league, you know there is some serious anger about the Leafs winning the lottery and thus, the chance to draft McKenna. There is going to be a lot of ink spilled and airwaves filled with takes about drafting a defenseman or Ivar Stenberg. The Leafs should not do either of those things.
If they want to draft a defenseman, they should execute a trade to acquire another pick. You do not pass on drafting a player with draft-year comparables such as Mitch Marner and Taylor Hall, and NHL projection comparables to Nikita Kucherov.
McKenna has the potential to play on the top line and have an immediate impact for a team that is probably looking to compete as soon as next season. Prior to winning the lottery, there were significant questions about the Leafs’ future and ability to turn it around. Adding McKenna to the fray makes things look a little brighter. It should be McKenna, and you use pieces within the organization to acquire a high-end defender in trade.
1:39
How Gavin McKenna is getting ready for the NHL
No. 1-ranked 2026 NHL draft prospect Gavin McKenna discusses how he’s preparing to play at the next level.
2. San Jose Sharks
Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
The Sharks should consider trading this pick and moving back a few spots, while likely still getting an elite talent somewhere lower in the top eight.
If they don’t, the conversation is between a few players. The Sharks have an embarrassment of riches up front and could use this to add elite talent on the back end. In drafting Reid, San Jose gets a right-handed defenseman whose closest draft-year comparable is Evan Bouchard. Reid is a wonderful skater who will almost certainly become a power-play quarterback and drive offense from the blue line.
The Sharks have a lot less in the pipeline on the right side, with only Eric Pohlkamp projected to play in the NHL. Reid gives the Sharks a tremendous skater and puck mover on the right side who can partner with Sam Dickinson or drive a pair on his own.
3. Vancouver Canucks
Ivar Stenberg, LW/RW, Frolunda HC (SHL)
There is a very real possibility the Canucks take Caleb Malhotra here, given the strong organizational need for a center. But Stenberg getting to third would be a gift they should not refuse.
Stenberg has the highest probability of making the NHL, and he is the player in the top 10 with the least volatility. He is a bona fide play-driving winger who impacts the game in every area of the ice. His production and performance in the SHL was so brilliant that there are very few comparables in the model. He drew comparisons to the draft-year performances of David Pastrnak and William Nylander, however there is a very real chance Stenberg is more impactful as a play driver.
The organizational need is important, but passing on the best player available is not something an organization in Vancouver’s position should be doing.
4. Chicago Blackhawks
Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)
There is little doubt that Chicago would love for Stenberg to fall to them, and while that is a possibility, it shouldn’t happen. Instead, Chicago lands Carels, who has comparables such as Zach Werenski and Cale Makar.
Carels is the type of defender who dictates play from the blue line, controlling the game and playing in every situation. He’s big, physical and gives Chicago a foundational piece on the left side. The potential top pair of Carels-Artyom Levshunov would be a staple in Chicago for years to come. Carels is the best defenseman in my model, but given the teams above Chicago, it feels like they might have the opportunity to draft him — if they do not trade down.
5. New York Rangers
Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)
The Rangers desperately need a play-driving forward. Their track record of forwards drafted in the top five hitting their ceiling is poor, and they would have to hope that Malhotra is the exception.
It wouldn’t be totally surprising if Malhotra is gone by this point, and there are defensemen with higher potential for the Rangers to select, but he’d be a strong fit if he’s on the board.
Malhotra is a competitive, play-driving, two-way center with size and a growing offensive profile. Malhotra compares positively to Matty Beniers and Sam Bennett. It is fair to believe Malhotra will have a better offensive output in the NHL, while likely having similar two-way impact. He can be a cornerstone of a Cup-contending team in the very near future.
6. Calgary Flames
Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL)
The Flames are going to get an excellent player at sixth overall, and they will have the opportunity to continue to build their blue line. Adding Rudolph as a potential partner for Zayne Parekh — or to have each drive their own pairing — is a tantalizing thought.
Rudolph compares favorably to Noah Hanifin and Bouchard, who are key pieces of Cup contenders. Rudolph is one of the best skaters in the draft class, with great puck-moving ability and a shot that threatens from the blue line. His overall profile would see him slide nicely into Calgary’s top four and dictate play from the blue line.
7. Seattle Kraken
Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA)
The Kraken need high-end talent on the back end, and Verhoeff was thought of as a top-two prospect in this draft class not long ago. He’s big, he skates well and he’s right-handed. With many high-potential forwards in the organization, the Kraken finally add a foundational piece to their blue line.
To win, you need a top defenseman, and Verhoeff has the chance to be exactly that, with comparables to Aaron Ekblad and Thomas Harley. The model is high on Nikita Klepov and he may be a consideration here, but if Verhoeff remains on the board when Seattle is up, it is hard to imagine a scenario where the Kraken pass on him, given their lack of a bona fide prospect on defense and Verhoeff’s potential to be on the top pairing.
8. Winnipeg Jets
Nikita Klepov, F, Saginaw (OHL)
I am a big Klepov fan. We’re talking about star potential here. Jets fans will be familiar with his statistical comparable Kyle Connor.
Klepov is one of the smartest players in the draft, understands how to pick apart defensive coverage and has the skill set to execute. The Jets would likely prefer a center, but Klepov has the highest ceiling of the players remaining on the board. He has an elite playmaking skill set and could be a future staple of the top six.
Winnipeg should be thrilled to add a player with the potential of Klepov. Ethan Belchetz is likely to get a strong look here — as a player with high-end potential and size — but Klepov has the higher ceiling as a dual-threat offensive player.
9. Florida Panthers
Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Liiga)
I would trade down from this pick, and I think it is more likely than not that the Panthers do so. But if they do keep it, the need for a building block on the blue line who fits the mold of big, mobile and competitive is present for Florida.
Smits has top-four potential and plays a style that fits with how the Panthers have built their team, with statistical comparables like Rasmus Ristolainen and Adam Larsson. He does not have the offensive ceiling of some of the other defensemen at the top of the class, but there is a likelihood he is ready to be an impactful NHL player sooner than players ahead of him. Given the Panthers’ competitive window, if they don’t trade the pick, Smits makes a ton of sense.
If the draft falls this way, the Predators will get a gift here: the ability to take a player who was in the top five to start the season, who is big, competitive and has a high-end skill set.
Belchetz has the potential to be a top-six winger and a serious goal-scoring threat given his shot. He can physically dominate a game, and has comparables like Valeri Nichushkin and Cutter Gauthier. If Belchetz can improve his speed, particularly his acceleration, there is a real possibility that he can score 40 goals and physically dominate his opponents.
The Preds would love to add a player who has the potential to physically overpower opponents, with solid puck handling and an excellent shot.
11. St. Louis Blues
Viggo Bjorck, C/RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL)
The Blues need high-end talent, and though Bjorck gets docked in the model for his size, he fits the mold of a St. Louis Blue. He’s competitive and dogged in his pursuit of the puck, using his speed to close on opponents and force turnovers.
Bjorck is a play driver in every sense, and though it is rare that a player of his size is an elite top-six center, his playing attributes shouldn’t give the Blues any reservations about his potential. His ability to elevate the play of his linemates through his play driving and playmaking ability is high-end and very enticing.
There is a non-zero chance that Bjorck is gone by this point if a team believes he has true top-line center potential. If he isn’t, the Blues are a good landing spot for him.
12. New Jersey Devils
Adam Novotny, LW/RW, Peterborough (OHL)
This feels like the area where teams should start to think about Novotny. By selecting him, the Devils get a versatile winger with a scoring profile that developed over the course of the season.
Novotny is already built like an NHL player, with one of the best shots in the draft class and a true ability to score. The Devils have elite playmakers in their lineup, and Novotny is exactly the type of winger who can finish the scoring chances his centers create. He’s diligent on both sides of the puck, wins puck battles and drives to the middle of the ice to create offense. Novotny adds an element to the Devils organization that they don’t have in their prospect pool, which is currently defense-heavy.
13. New York Islanders
Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
The Isles desperately need a right-handed defender in the prospect pool, making Ryan Lin a legitimate possibility with this pick. However, if Lawrence or Wyatt Cullen get to them, they may opt for a player with a profile who is more likely to be an impact NHL player.
Lawrence is a two-way player who will play on both special teams, be a reliable offensive producer in the middle six and drive his line. His drop-off in production at Boston University is concerning, but given his long runway as a young player in the draft class, the Isles should be confident that Lawrence can find his stride and develop into an impactful middle-six center.
The Blue Jackets should seriously consider trading this pick for more immediate help, but in the event they keep their pick, Cullen is the type of impactful forward that Columbus can confidently slot into the middle six.
Cullen’s puck-carrying ability, one-on-one skill and ability to force turnovers on the forecheck are difference-makers. He is a little bigger than some of the wingers that Columbus has, and is certainly more of a play driver. He’s a quality, complementary player who should be able to drive offense and play a key role on the power play.
There is every reason to believe his production will continue to improve as one of the youngest players in the draft class, and his growth injuries are behind him. If the Jackets keep the pick, nabbing Cullen would be a tidy piece of business.
15. St. Louis Blues (from DET)
Mathis Preston, F, Vancouver (WHL)
The Blues get good value with Preston at No. 15 by the model’s estimation, and with it, a winger with the potential to become a top-line forward. His closest statistical comparables in his draft year are Oliver Bjorkstrand and Adrian Kempe.
Preston has a summer birthday with lots of development runway, and he already has a proven ability to create using his speed and excellent puck skills. Preston is smaller than some other prospects, at 5-11, but his offensive tool kit is well-rounded and loaded. His off-puck play and overall competitiveness have drawn concerns, but his potential to be a lethal offensive threat in the top six is something the Blues should not ignore.
Given he’s almost a year younger than other players the Blues could select here, taking a chance on a player who could score 70 points per season at No. 15 feels like a good bet.
The Capitals haven’t taken a center in the first round in years, and there is a need for one in their prospect pool. Given that Suvanto has some value at this spot and a profile that gives him a very good chance at becoming a middle-six center, it makes a lot of sense for the Caps to nab him here.
Lin was a major consideration in this spot given his profile, but having Cole Hutson as the leader of the Capitals’ back end for years to come means the team doesn’t have to reach for Lin. The Caps should probably consider Ryan Roobroeck and Yegor Shilov here as options at center, but ultimately, I’d have them take Suvanto, whose stock has risen over the course of the season with a projectable two-way game and complementary scoring ability.
Leave a Reply