NHL insiders debate biggest playoff surprises, disappointments

Ryan S. Clark
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Ryan S. Clark
ESPN NHL reporter
,
Arda Ocal
,
Kristen Shilton
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Kristen Shilton
ESPN NHL reporter
,
Greg Wyshynski
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Greg Wyshynski
Senior NHL writer
,
Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Special to ESPN.com

Multiple Authors

May 4, 2026, 08:00 AM ET

The first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs is officially complete. From a field of 16 teams, the bracket is down to eight.

What were the biggest surprises — both positive and negative — in the first set of series? Which eliminated teams face the biggest questions this summer? And have any of our analysts changed their pre-playoff Stanley Cup prediction?

Read more:
Full schedule
Playoff Central
Stanley Cup odds
Second-round picks
Offseason guide for eliminated teams

Which player surprised you the most in a positive way?

Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Alex Lyon. There’s a feeling among coaches and executives that few teams can get through the playoffs with one goaltender. What Lyon has done reinforces why tandems are so important beyond the regular season. His coming in for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Game 2 — only to then take over the net with a .955 save percentage to close out the series — was a turning point for the Buffalo Sabres.

Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Logan Stankoven. While there’s some debate about whether his true nickname is “Stanky” or “Stanks” — wonder what his parents, Deana and Wes Stankoven, might think of either choice — there’s nothing odorous about how Carolina’s second line has performed (read: superbly) this postseason.

Flanked by veteran Taylor Hall and sophomore Jackson Blake, the diminutive center has six goals in five games thus far, scoring in every single contest, including two game-winners. Not too shabby for a skater who amassed 21 goals and 23 assists all year and struck as the lesser prize in exchange for Mikko Rantanen two Marches ago. The best part? At 23, Stankoven is just getting going.

Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Porter Martone. He has settled into NHL play very nicely. Since his debut, he has led the Flyers in goals and points, and he has scored game winners, proving to be clutch for Philly. He is already the kind of player the city can rally behind early in his career. Every so often we get a rookie who breaks through in the playoffs (though it’s often a goalie) — Martone is proving to be that guy early on.

Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Frederik Andersen. I am guilty of questioning whether Andersen was the right choice over Brandon Bussi for Carolina. The veteran has always been solid in the postseason but not necessarily clutch. And Bussi’s overall numbers in the regular season were better than Andersen’s (.895 vs. .874 in save percentage, for example). The rookie stumbled more frequently down the stretch, so it wasn’t completely surprising Rod Brind’Amour tapped Andersen to start Game 1 against Ottawa — and, boy, did Andersen deliver.

The veteran went 4-0-0 with a .955 save percentage in Carolina’s sweep of the Senators. He gave up just five goals — and three at even strength. He had a playoff-leading goals saved above expected (7.6), showing that it was Andersen — and not just Carolina’s defensive play — doing the heavy lifting. If Andersen can keep this up, it’s hard to see the Hurricanes not continuing to cruise their way back to the Eastern Conference finals.

Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Taylor Hall. The 34-year-old winger had a nice bounce-back season before becoming an absolute terror in the playoffs. Hall had two goals and six assists through five games, skating to a plus-7. He has helped power arguably the best line in the playoffs with Logan Stankoven (six goals) and Jackson Blake (six points), providing veteran physicality and agitation to his young linemates.

I keep wondering: Has Hall officially entered his Corey Perry era — a former Hart Trophy winner and offensive star who settles into being a “win at all costs” depth player on a team with championship aspirations? Hall might have a bit more left to offer offensively before earning that late-career designation. In fact, he’s one of the reasons I believe this is the deepest group of scoring threats Brind’Amour has had — deep enough to potentially advance Carolina out of the Eastern Conference.

Which team or player was the biggest disappointment of Round 1?

Clark: I’m going with the Dallas Stars. There were the defensive breakdowns. There were the penalties they took that increased the threat of those breakdowns. There was that stretch of more than 200 minutes that saw them fail to score in 5-on-5 play. There were also times when their urgency — or lack thereof — came into question.

The Stars were a top-five shot-share team in the first round, yet it was the Minnesota Wild who had more sequences that dictated play. Getting knocked out in the first round, though not ideal, doesn’t mean that they’re not still in a championship window. But there are major items they must address between now and next season.

Matiash: Oh, the Edmonton Oilers. Maybe blame recent conditioning inspired by watching them in two straight Stanley Cup Finals, but I had a difficult time picturing June hockey, never mind May, without Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Sure, defensive and netminding issues remained in play, and yes, they were clearly badly banged up, but my gut still told me the two superstars would haul the rest of their gaggle into Round 2 at least.

Öcal: The Edmonton Oilers. Taking nothing away from the Anaheim Ducks and their first playoff series win in several years, Edmonton was plagued by injuries (including a certainly not 100% Connor McDavid) but also looked lifeless and tired in big stretches of this series.

“An average team with high expectations,” McDavid said in the aftermath of the loss. “You’re going to be disappointed.”

This was a tough pill to swallow for Oilers fans hoping McDavid will sign a long-term extension and stay in Edmonton for the remainder of his career. His team-friendly contract extension kicks in next season, and the launch point isn’t on the firmest ground. One of my biggest offseason questions is what the Oilers will do to bolster another Cup Final push.

Shilton: The Ottawa Senators. Linus Ullmark played lights-out hockey for the Senators, and they absolutely wasted his performances. To wit, Ullmark had zero wins but a .932 SV% and 2.03 goals-against average.

Meanwhile, his teammates produced a playoff-worst grand total of five goals in four games between two players (thanks for coming, everyone except Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens). Did Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, Shane Pinto, et al. just not get the memo that the playoffs had begun? It was a sorry sight to see how Ullmark was left out to dry — especially given how he rallied from a roller coaster of a regular season.

Wyshynski: It’s Connor McDavid, and now we know why. Coach Kris Knoblauch revealed that his star captain played with a foot and ankle area fracture in the six-game loss to the Ducks. As McDavid said: “My advantage is my speed burst. That quick step. I had none of that.” McDavid had six points in six games (one goal, five assists) but only two points at even strength. The Oilers were outscored 7-3 at 5-on-5 when McDavid was on the ice; in the regular season, Edmonton outscored foes by eight goals when he was out there.

This isn’t a criticism of McDavid. This isn’t me sitting here administering some “Connor McDavid has got to step it up!” hot take. He was significantly injured and deserves credit for trying to gut through it. But if the question is who the biggest disappointment of the playoffs is thus far, then it’s obviously the potential NHL MVP becoming a nonfactor for his team. And, by virtue of that injury and others, seeing the Oilers go from back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances to a first-round casualty, which only is intensifying speculation about McDavid’s future in Edmonton just as his two-year extension kicks in.

What does Connor McDavid’s future look like in Edmonton?

Greg Wyshynski examines Connor McDavid’s future with the Oilers after being eliminated by the Ducks.

Has your Stanley Cup pick changed?

Clark (COL): No, but we’ll know more after the series against Minnesota. That’s nothing against the Avalanche. It’s just that the Wild are no longer a one-and-done team, but rather one that could be inclined to reshape the power dynamic in the Western Conference.

Matiash (COL): This one’s tricky since I certainly can’t loathe my original pick after the Avs disposed of the Kings in four. However, having since become more smitten with the Wild, I find myself favoring Kirill Kaprizov & Co. to edge Jared Bednar’s formidable crew in a long, hard-fought series. So, in respect to that fresh projected formula, my answer is a soft yes. If permitted to grant myself a minor hedge here, I really like whoever emerges from this series to win the whole darn thing.

Öcal (EDM): Yep. With the Oilers out, I’m going with the Wild. They looked impressive against Dallas, and if they can get through Colorado, they’ll have been through the toughest first- and second-round gauntlet in recent memory.

Shilton (CAR): Nope. Carolina’s perfect record to date requires no notes.

Wyshynski (COL): Not in the least. The Avalanche swept the Los Angeles Kings without really breaking a sweat, which is the kind of series they needed before meeting whoever emerged from the Thunderdome that was the Stars vs. Wild.

Colorado has a significant lineup advantage in the middle, sporting the deepest group of centers in the playoffs. It won’t be easy, but I think they’ll get through the Wild — and they’re better than whoever the Pacific Division will nominate as its representative in the conference finals. My Stanley Cup Final prediction before the season was Colorado vs. Carolina. I’m sticking to that. My Stanley Cup winner was the Avalanche in five games. Sticking to that, too.

Which eliminated team faces the biggest questions this summer?

Clark: Dallas and Edmonton are legitimate candidates, but my answer is the Los Angeles Kings. Failing to get out of the first round for more than a decade comes with its own set of questions. There are also more direct items that must be addressed, such as figuring out how they’ll replace captain Anze Kopitar now that he’s retired. Or how they will try to find more scoring help while having a little more than $18 million in projected cap space — knowing some of that will go toward defenseman Brandt Clarke’s new deal.

After all that, there’s the added motivation of trying to find those answers with the reality that the West looks like it could get a few more teams challenging for the wild card next season.

Matiash: I don’t want Edmonton GM Stan Bowman’s job right now, in having to address several pressing questions. The Oilers have nine roster forwards, five defenders, and one goalie signed through next season, and not a lot of salary cap room with which to work. Management will have to get rather creative in massaging a team that’s expected to make another run ASAP.

The club still needs to solve its goaltending issues after shipping Stuart Skinner off to Pittsburgh in exchange for Tristan Jarry and his $5 million-plus price tag. (Remember, the Oilers bought out Jack Campbell less than two years ago.)

Öcal: Edmonton for sure, for the reasons stated above. But an honorable mention goes to Ottawa because although Brady Tkachuk has been deflecting the trade talk, an offseason question will definitely be: How will the Senators improve?

Shilton: Oh, Edmonton. What are you going to do to satisfy Connor McDavid? Can you get an actual No. 1 goalie to backstop a team centered by the best player in the world (and his 1B, Leon Draisaitl?) McDavid offered the Oilers a limited window of time (the two-year contract extension that’s about to kick in) to earn his Stanley Cup championship.

A first-round exit against the Ducks is not what McDavid signed back up for — but it does reflect why he did so cautiously. Your move, Stan Bowman.

Wyshynski: When the Oilers went from back-to-back Stanley Cup Final losses to a first-round elimination, Draisaitl said the organization had “taken big steps backward.” So what of the Stars, who went from three straight Western Conference finals losses to a first-round ousting? Will they chalk it up to an inequitable playoff format in which the third overall team was forced to face the league’s seventh-best team in the first round? Or to not having Roope Hintz against the Wild?

Or will a team that never shies away from a bold swing make one in the offseason?

Which brings us to Jason Robertson, a restricted free agent this summer, and the unending — some would say inexplicable — debate about his future with Dallas. Robertson, 26, has the sixth-most goals in the NHL over the past two seasons (80) and led the Stars with five goals in six playoff games. Yet some believe that he isn’t worth the big money and the term he’s seeking, and that he could bring back a significant player in trade to take Dallas closer to the Stanley Cup it is chasing. Stay tuned.

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