BURNLEY, England — If victory over Arsenal opened the door for Manchester City to mount a late title charge, then they were only able to tiptoe towards it at Burnley.
A narrow, nervy 1-0 win at Turf Moor on Wednesday relegated Burnley and put Pep Guardiola’s side top of the table. But only just. After being level on points and goal difference, they are ahead of Arsenal on goals scored. With five games to go, it’s the smallest of margins.
When Erling Haaland scored inside five minutes, it felt like one of those nights that could boost City’s goal difference. But then chance after chance went begging and Burnley felt emboldened enough to send their goalkeeper, Martin Dúbravka, forward for a stoppage-time corner.
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For a moment, the away fans who made the 20-mile trip from Manchester collectively held their breath. It was that type of night.
“Winning is the main target,” said Guardiola. “Considering the last three days and the emotion and physicality in the game we played [against Arsenal], we made an extraordinary game.
“The chances we created we could score more goals, but the important thing is winning every game. Five games in the Premier League for both teams and we’ll see what happens.”
It started so well. If Arsenal fans were hoping for a favor from Burnley, those watching on TV instead saw a gift-wrapped early goal for their title rivals.
There had already been enough time for Rayan Cherki to hit the crossbar. And when a hopeful ball forward from deep in City’s half found Jérémy Doku, the Belgian winger had the simple task of sliding his pass through for Haaland to clip his finish over Dúbravka.
It prompted the first chants of “We are top of the league” from the away fans behind Gianluigi Donnarumma’s goal.
But by 70 minutes, the party atmosphere in the away end had turned to frustration. Antoine Semenyo blasted over. Haaland hit the post. Savinho, on as a substitute, had a shot saved by Dúbravka. With five minutes to go, Guardiola was slumped on the bench, shaking his head. And that was before Nico O’Reilly missed a golden chance in the last minute. City ended the night with 28 shots and an xG of 3.5.
“We had chances,” said Guardiola. “We have to win the games, but [chances] were clear, clear, clear.
“We didn’t have any ‘umph’ in the last part of the shots. Sometimes it’s the fatigue. I had the feeling that if we score at 2-0, it will be more relaxed and we could be more composed in the final third.”
On the final whistle at the Etihad on Sunday, Declan Rice was caught on camera mouthing the words “it’s not done.” And despite slipping off top spot for the first time in 200 days, if City continue to be as wasteful as this, then he might be right. Guardiola doesn’t need reminding that the run-in is already complicated.
With City playing Southampton in the FA Cup semifinal on Saturday and then waiting another nine days before facing Everton in the Premier League, Arsenal will play twice before Guardiola’s team has the chance to put more points on the board.
It means that by the time they line up at Hill Dickinson Stadium on May 4, Arsenal could be six points clear. City’s issues don’t end there. The league game they missed on the weekend of the Carabao Cup final — against Crystal Palace at home — has still not been rearranged.
And if they beat Southampton and reach a fourth consecutive FA Cup final, they won’t be able to play Bournemouth away on May 17, either.
With dates for the Palace game limited because of their continued involvement in the UEFA Conference League, it leaves the prospect of City having midweek games in both the final two weeks of the season.
Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium — set to be Andoni Iraola’s last home game in charge — just days before the final weekend already looks particularly tough. Bournemouth have only lost twice at the Vitality this season and are on an unbeaten run which stretches back to January.
Arsenal, of course, have their own distractions to overcome with a two-legged UEFA Champions League semifinal against Atlético Madrid, either side of Fulham’s visit to the Emirates on May 2.
There is still a long way to go.
Guardiola is hoping to give his players the edge by making changes at Wembley on Sunday, although he accepts that a lot of rotation against a Southampton side flying in the Championship is a risk with a domestic treble on the line. Tiredness, though, is becoming an issue.
“Now we have to think about it a lot because I had a lot of doubts about the lineup today because of the fatigue on Sunday,” said the City boss.
“Now it will be three in a row, and in three days, go to London. I know that if we win it will be a good decision and if we lose it will be a bad decision. I have to think about it.”
If nothing else, an FA Cup semifinal will give Guardiola and his players a weekend off from the pressure of a tight title race. It’s over to Arsenal, who play Newcastle United at the Emirates at the same time, to prove they can keep up.
City weren’t able to make a statement against Burnley. Instead, they just about edged ahead. Into the final stretch, the door is open for either team to burst through and grab the trophy.
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