AUGUSTA, Ga. — The first golf major of the year begins with the 2026 Masters Tournament from Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National in Georgia.
Rory McIlroy is the defending champion. Two-time winner Scottie Scheffler is the favorite, followed by Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and McIlroy.
Who do our golf experts think will win? What kind of betting advice does Pamela Maldonado have?
Jump ahead to: Pamela Maldonado’s betting and fantasy advice for the week
Experts’ picks
Matt Barrie
Jon Rahm: He has quietly been playing some of the best golf in the world this season. He’s in a great spot personally and professionally. And his recent form will awake the roars at Augusta National this week.
Tory Cabrera
Brooks Koepka: Is Brooks Koepka an obvious favorite? No. Is he still “Big-Game Brooks,” the man who once said he thinks the majors are “the easiest to win”? I’m banking on it … that and the fact he’s got some added financial incentive since the cost of rejoining the PGA Tour.
Jeff Darlington
Justin Rose: My head is telling me that Rahm is about to reemerge into the spotlight because I keep hearing he’s playing great golf. But my heart is saying Rose gets his moment. And when it comes to the Masters, I’m always inclined to go with the heart.
Michael Eaves
Bryson DeChambeau: In addition to winning his last two worldwide starts, he has finished T6 and T5 in his last two Masters appearances. And since 2023, he’s dropped two putts per round off his putting average at Augusta National. If he truly has the greens figured out, there’s no way he won’t be in contention come Sunday.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Xander Schauffele: He’s finished T-10 or better in five of past seven years, including T-8 last year and solo eighth in 2024. After a tough, injured-delayed season in 2025 he’s playing better this year, finishing T-7 or better in three of his last four starts, including solo third at the Players Championship.
Andy North
DeChambeau: He’s finally figured out this course the past couple of years. He’s playing well and winning. Distance is always such a big factor at Augusta National.
Laura Rutledge
Scottie Scheffler: He’s been working on his game at home, and I think he’ll be ready to go.
Mark Schlabach
Scheffler: I know his iron play hasn’t been as good, and he was fighting his driver during the Florida swing. Still, Scheffler is ranked No. 1 in the world for a reason, and nobody has been at Augusta National Golf Club over the past four years. Don’t overthink it: Scheffler rides a hot putter to a third green jacket.
Marty Smith
Rose: A three-time runner-up at Augusta — twice in a playoff! — this is the year Rose earns the green jacket. No one in Masters history has led more rounds without a win than Rose, and in 2026 he is playing consistent — often incredible — golf. He ranks 10th in strokes gained: approach this season — his best numbers in a decade. Sharp iron play is critical at Augusta. Already a winner this year following a record-breaking wire-to-wire performance at Torrey Pines, the ageless one wins his second major championship.
Curtis Strange
Schauffele: Playing well, good Masters record — five top 10s in seven years — very good striker of ball.
Paolo Uggetti
Ludvig Aberg: It’s not that I’m forgetting Aberg’s collapse at the Players last month; it’s that I think that it will help Aberg come this Sunday when he is in the hunt for his first green jacket. Aberg’s game fits this place so well, as evidenced by his two top-10 finishes in two starts, that contention feels like the minimum.
Scott Van Pelt
DeChambeau: I think Augusta National is, as much as anything, like a subject you study and learn over time. You can’t master the Masters without a bit of understanding. In the final pairing last year and in the top five at the end — that, and his recent form, lead me to say it’s his time.
Dan Wetzel
DeChambeau: A wiser and more patient DeChambeau feels inevitable at Augusta, so why not this year? He’s coming off his best finish here a year ago (T-5) and just outdueled Jon Rahm in a playoff in South Africa.
Pamela Maldonado’s picks and advice for the week
Welcome to Masters week. Augusta National finds you eventually: on the back nine on Sunday, at Amen Corner, on a slick downhill putt you didn’t see coming. It makes for an exciting week for bettors and viewers.
The players who contend here aren’t just talented — they’re specifically built for this place with elite iron play, creativity around the greens and the nerve to execute when the chance is right in front of them.
This week the conditions remove the chaos variable. Calm, warm, firm, no wind to create drama and no rain to level the field. What’s left is a pure talent contest on the most demanding stage in golf.
Here’s a look at betting options for the week.
My pick to win
Ludvig Åberg (+1700) fits Augusta exactly how you want a contender to fit. He’s first in strokes gained at this course, second in both strokes gained: total and tee-to-green and sixth in approach. At this point, it isn’t projection, as Aberg has proved it with back-to-back top seven finishes here.
The course rewards players who can control the ball off the tee and hit precise irons. That’s his game. He gains off the tee without losing accuracy, and his iron play gives him constant birdie looks. His recent form lines up too. Aberg finished in the top 5 at Bay Hill, The Players and Valero. Augusta is not the course to be searching for your game, so it helps that Aberg is already there.
Picking Aberg to win is betting on a player whose skill set, course history and current form all point in the same direction. Don’t overthink it.
My favorite bet to make the top 10
Xander Schauffele (+140 with ties) has a clean profile, fifth in approach, second in scrambling, eighth in strokes gained at Augusta, plus back-to-back top-10 finishes here. He knows how to play this course against an elite field and in big events.
There’s truly no real weakness in his game that this course can expose. If “solid overall” were a look, it’d be Xander. The form isn’t spiking as far as wins, finishing top seven in three of his past four events, but he’s around every week, which is the type of player you can trust to hang for a top-10 wager.
Firm conditions only make this better. Augusta puts pressure on your irons and your ability to recover. Xander does both at a high level, and if he does miss, he saves it. The price is fair for a guy who should be in the mix come Sunday.
My favorite Rory McIlroy bet
My favorite bet is no bet. Rory is a genuinely complicated profile to assess. Some odds available at the time of writing: End of Round 1 at -125, and +108 for a Top 10, plus +1150 to win. He won last year; it was glorious and one of the best sports stories of our generation. He knows how to close at Augusta now, so his pedigree is undeniable.
But the data going into this week is honest in a way the narrative isn’t. He withdrew from Bay Hill with back spasms. He played The Players through the injury and described his own form as unbelievably rusty, finishing T46. His strokes gained metrics aren’t aligned with a champion’s form; 12th total, 16th on approach and 46th in putting. Augusta demands full physical commitment across four days. Amen Corner alone will test a compromised back in a way that a flat course won’t. 2025 was unreal, but 2026 is a question mark.
The public will bet McIlroy, so let them. The pricing doesn’t reflect the actual risk.
Am I betting on Scottie Scheffler?
Also no. He’s healthy, which matters. But Scheffler did skip the Houston Open to be with his family after his wife gave birth to their second child, which means the Players was his most recent tournament in mid-March.
Taking time away from competitive golf before Augusta is a real preparation question. The exclamation point is his form with his irons: 35th in the field, neutral or losing strokes in nearly every event he’s played this year.
The approach numbers are concerning on a course where iron play is above everything else. Top five (+106) makes the most sense simply because his Augusta floor is elite: two consecutive top-4 finishes, including a win. If you need Scheffler on your card, that’s really the only way to go.
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My favorite long shot
Patrick Reed (+4400) has seven Masters appearances since winning in 2018 and five of those are top 12 finishes, including T4 in 2023 and third last year. This is a player with a documented, repeatable Augusta career built on what this course requires — elite scrambling, creative short game and nerves that don’t show up in the strokes gained spreadsheet.
The market is pricing Reed as a LIV afterthought. The data says that he has two wins in 2026 (Euro Tour), meaning that he’s showing up with a hot hand, not a cold form. Firm, quiet conditions this week should suit him. His August results span multiple setups and he’s produced in all of them. Reed has essentially been a very different and considerably more profitable player when in Georgia.
Other bets that stand out
Tommy Fleetwood top 10 (+168 with ties): First from tee-to-green and third around the green makes this intriguing for an article like this, where it’s about taking a higher risk. He’s hitting the double-digit mark for appearances, and it seems like in the past four, he’s figured it out. The 2024 T3 was a complete performance, elite from tee to green. Last year, he finished T21 with the same tee-to-green solid performance but lost nearly five strokes putting, his worst in all his Masters starts and still finished inside the Top 25. The market is giving you solid odds on the best tee-to-green player in the field at a course he knows well.
Patrick Reed top 20 (+126 with ties): His Augusta history is too consistent to be getting better than even money.
In five of his past seven appearances, his short game and scrambling numbers were positive. The two outlier weeks (2019 and 2022) are the exception. Repeatable patterns are what you want in betting. Playing LIV and Euro make it hard to benchmark him against the field, but Augusta itself becomes his comp course. Five top 20 finishes in those starts is its own data set.
With two 2026 wins on Euro Tour, Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters, he’s in form. Reed’s pricing says the market hasn’t fully caught on to what this course specifically does for his game.
Ludvig Aberg top 10 (+154 with ties): His form is peaking into Masters week, three straight top five finishes coming in and four straight tournaments gaining strokes in every category. He’s trending in one direction at exactly the right moment where his style is built for this course.
The ties inclusion is simple: if he finishes 10th and three other players finish 10th alongside him, you still get paid. It’s more ways to win the same bet. At a course where Aberg has already finished top seven in back-to-back years, this is simply asking him to do that again.
Fantasy golf
Top three DFS plays
Matt Fitzpatrick $8,700: The form is coming in solid, T2 at the Players, then won Valspar, with approach play fourth best in the field. He’s underpriced relative to what he’s shown this season. Augusta history is the knock but the ball striking fits this course and firm conditions benefit precision iron play.
Min Woo Lee $7,700: The price alone intrigues. He’s third in strokes gained total and his distance is 11th, relevant on a firm August track where par 5s separate the field. Lee has elite season-long ball striking numbers at a salary that lets you spend elsewhere. DFS is as much about value as it is ceiling. Lee gives you both.
Sam Stevens $6,400: Let’s call him the dart of the lineup. He finished fifth in Houston, T6 at American Express, having gained strokes ballstriking in every tournament this season but one. At the minimum price, he frees up salary for the top of the card. The potential is real to justify the exposure, and his distance profile on firm fairways gives him a legit path to fantasy relevance.
Top three DFS fades
Two of these fades will look familiar. Both Schauffele $9,600 and Reed $9,000 are on my betting card this week. Fantasy is a different game with different rules. In betting, I want Reed’s Augusta floor and Xander’s consistency. In DFS, I need a ceiling, and more importantly, salary efficiency.
The same profile that makes a player a smart wager can also make them a poor fantasy play. That’s the case here. Bet them, but don’t roster them.
Casey Jarvis $6,600: Three wins on the Euro Tour makes him look really good at this value price. Three of those came on courses with no relevance to Augusta and his comp course sample is essentially nonexistent. Plus, it’s his first Augusta appearance. We essentially have no data to anchor his projection. His price gives you reliable upside but the price isn’t low enough to justify the unknown. — Pamela Maldonado
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