PHOENIX — The women’s Final Four features the same collection of elite teams that played in the national semifinals a year ago. Perhaps more notable is that the No. 1 seeds facing each other in Friday’s games are familiar foes.
The secrets will be few when UConn and South Carolina meet in the first national semifinal (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), followed by UCLA and Texas clashing in the nightcap (9:30 ET, ESPN). The Huskies and Gamecocks met twice last season, including in the 2025 national championship game in Tampa, Florida. The Bruins and Longhorns are even more familiar, having played on Nov. 26 in the inaugural Players Era Championship in Las Vegas.
All three contests produced definitive results. UConn won in Columbia 87-58 in February 2025 and then dominated South Carolina again to win a 12th national championship 82-59. Azzi Fudd was the star of both games, with a combined 52 points.
Texas pushed UCLA around for the first 20 minutes the day before Thanksgiving and led by 20 at halftime before cruising to an 11-point win. The Bruins responded to that loss — their only defeat of the season — with a 29-game winning streak. Only UConn has won more consecutive victories (54).
This a Final Four full of stars such as UConn’s Sarah Strong and Fudd, Madison Booker of Texas and UCLA’s Lauren Betts — four of the five first-team All-Americans. South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards was on the second team.
But which teams will prevail Friday? ESPN’s Andrea Adelson, Kareem Copeland, Charlie Creme, Alexis Philippou and Michael Voepel break it all down and make their predictions.
Who is the single most important player on the floor Friday?
Adelson: Lauren Betts. Let us be frank: Betts might have scored a lot of points against UConn in the 85-51 semifinal loss last year, but UCLA did not meet the moment and got blown out as the No. 1 overall seed. She is back in this situation, having learned and grown, and it is essentially now or never.
For UCLA to have any shot to win the championship, Betts has to be at her best, on the floor and as a leader. In the first meeting with Texas in the regular season, Betts played 37 minutes and scored eight points and grabbed seven rebounds. UCLA needs much more to advance. “I think the biggest difference looking back at the film is just creating opportunities to get the ball as much as I can,” Betts said. “They’re a really amazing defensive team. I think as the guards are getting pressured on the perimeter, just trying to become so open that they just can’t, like, not give me the ball. Coming out with a certain level of aggression is going to be really important. I’m going to make sure I do that from the very beginning.”
Copeland: Joyce Edwards. If anyone has a chance to match AP Player of the Year Sarah Strong’s production in the frontcourt, it’s Edwards. Strong was the No. 1 prospect in the 2024 class while Edwards wasn’t far behind at No. 3. When Edwards is at her best, she’s a matchup nightmare despite not playing beyond the arc. And there might be a bit of extra motivation after being held to just 10 points on 4-for-12 shooting with five boards in the 23-point loss to the Huskies in the 2025 national championship. South Carolina needs to make Strong work on the defensive end — and Edwards has the energy and skill to do so.
Creme: Rori Harmon. Defense is what Texas does best, and it starts with Harmon. The pressure she applies to other point guards can cripple an offense. Charlisse Leger-Walker had a season-high six turnovers when Texas and UCLA squared off in Las Vegas. As a point guard herself, Harmon is third in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (just ahead of South Carolina’s Raven Johnson and just behind UConn’s KK Arnold) and has 29 assists to nine turnovers in this NCAA tournament.
What will determine South Carolina-UConn?
Copeland: The combination of Edwards and Ta’Niya Latson. South Carolina has to outscore (duh!) the offensive juggernaut that is UConn. The Huskies are coming off their two lowest-scoring games of the season in their past two and still overwhelmed North Carolina and Duke. Edwards and Latson have elite offensive abilities — Latson led the nation in scoring last season at Florida State — but tends to pick and choose their moments with a deep roster. There’s no time to do that Friday. Stars have to shine in games such as these, and South Carolina will need every point it can muster to knock off an undefeated No. 1 seed that’s chasing history. This is the opportunity that Latson transferred for.
Adelson: There is no doubt South Carolina is a better shooting team than last year when they played, and the addition of Latson has certainly helped with that. But Strong and Fudd gave South Carolina fits last season in the national championship game. While the Gamecocks need to find an answer for them, watch out for Blanca Quiñonez, who is playing at a different level in the NCAA tournament. When her team has needed a lift, Quinonez has been there — she is averaging 17.3 points in the NCAA tournament, including 20 in the Elite Eight win over Notre Dame.
Creme: The Gamecocks are not a 3-point dependent team, but they are good at it, ranked fourth in the country in accuracy from deep (37.7%). The two 26-point wins in the regionals were fueled in part by 16-of-23 3-point shooting. South Carolina has had plenty of wins this season when the 3s were not falling, but in some of its biggest games it was a problem. In their three losses — twice to Texas and once to Oklahoma — the Gamecocks were a combined 10-for-40 from deep. Leaning into Tessa Johnson and her 64.7% 3-point shooting in the NCAA tournament will help.
What will determine Texas-UCLA?
Creme: Turnovers. When the Longhorns lost back-to-back games in mid-January to LSU and South Carolina, they committed 17 and 22 turnovers and lost by a total of eight points. When Texas cleaned things up in the rematches later in the season with a cumulative 19 turnovers, it resulted in two wins. Texas coach Vic Schaefer mentioned it on Thursday: If his team takes care of the ball, it has a good chance to win. In that November meeting between the Longhorns and Bruins, the Texas defense harassed UCLA into a season-high 20 turnovers. Harmon and Jordan Lee overwhelmed the Bruins’ guards, particularly in the first half. That can’t repeat itself if UCLA is going to exact revenge.
Copeland: Defense. Texas has already done it once, holding UCLA to a season low in a 76-65 victory in November. The Longhorns are the best defensive team in the country and physically bully teams into submission. However, if UCLA can contain Booker, life becomes difficult offensively for Texas. The three-time All-American averages six more points (19.3) than any teammate on a roster where just three players average more than 8.5 points. Harmon was the standout for Texas with a season-high 26 points in the first meeting, but she has managed to score in double figures just four times since February. Can Texas keep up with UCLA’s offensive depth if Booker is taken away? Can UCLA scheme its way into the looks it wants?
Final Four predictions
South Carolina vs. UConn
Adelson: UConn 70, South Carolina 60
I think South Carolina is a better team than last year, but I’m not quite sure the defensive consistency is there to handle all the different ways UConn can score.
Copeland: South Carolina 74, UConn 71
The Gamecocks walked into summer workouts and were welcomed by video screens showing the score of last year’s title game — an 82-59 loss to UConn. South Carolina has tried to downplay the significance, but there’s no doubt that 23-point loss has lingered in the Gamecocks’ minds. Rarely the underdog, Dawn Staley gets her team primed for an upset of historical proportions — knocking off an undefeated No. 1 seed chasing history.
Creme: UConn 80, South Carolina 72
Last year’s game will have no bearing on this one, but Strong and Fudd will. The Huskies probably have the two best players in the Final Four — and stars generally win big games.
Philippou: UConn 72, South Carolina 64
This is bound to be a much closer game than their last meeting for the 2025 national title. It feels like we haven’t seen the best of Strong this tournament; she feels due for a big performance that propels UConn back to the national championship game.
Michael Voepel: UConn 70, South Carolina 66
It is tough to pick against an unbeaten team. The Huskies didn’t necessarily play at their very best against Notre Dame in the Elite Eight yet still won by 18. However, the Gamecocks have more offensive weapons than the Irish. Which is why this probably will be a close game, with Strong as the ultimate difference-maker.
Texas vs. UCLA
Adelson: Texas 65, UCLA 57
I was in Greenville, South Carolina, at the SEC tournament watching Texas impose its will defensively game after game. The Longhorns are the most impressive team I have watched this year, and even though it’s hard to beat a team twice in one season, their defense will make the difference in the rematch once again.
Copeland: Texas 70, UCLA 64
Texas is one of the few teams in the country with the defensive prowess to offset UCLA’s offensive depth — and it has done it already this season. The Longhorns are physical and just don’t let teams get comfortable or get to their spots. They make offenses adjust off their initial adjustments. On top of it all, Texas has the best player on the floor in Booker, who is averaging 22.5 points in this tournament while shooting an incredible 58.6% from the field.
Creme: Texas 72, UCLA 67
These are both well-balanced teams that can win in multiple ways. Texas just has more. The Longhorns’ defense has been elite, the offense has gone to a new level, the 3-point shooting is much better — and in Booker the Longhorns have a player good enough, and hot enough, to carry them to a win.
Philippou: Texas 76, UCLA 69
With Harmon, a fifth-year senior, leading the way, Texas is playing the best of anyone remaining in the field and will carry that momentum into Friday to beat the Bruins for the second time this season.
Voepel: Texas 77, UCLA 71
The Bruins have shown some propensity for slow starts, and that could be fatal against a Texas team that pounces defensively on opponents from the tip. If you get behind the Longhorns, it can be very hard to catch up. Texas has looked as confident as any team throughout this tournament.
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