Last spring, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race was overshadowed by millions of dollars in outside spending, armies of door-knockers blanketing the state, a controversial million-dollar check giveaway, and the world’s richest man donning a cheesehead hat.
But Democrats captured the seat and some inside Republican circles blamed Elon Musk for nationalizing the race, making himself the story just as his slash-and-burn Department of Government Efficiency dominated headlines and turned off voters.
“I definitely don’t think Elon Musk helped Brad Schimel,” said Mark Graul, a GOP strategist, referring to the 2025 conservative-aligned candidate.
Second Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar, a candidate for Wisconsin State Supreme Court, poses for a portrait on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, in Madison, Wisconsin.
Owen Ziliak/Wisconsin State Journal via AP
One year later, there is another Supreme Court race with similar stakes — but none of the spectacle.
With a conservative justice retiring, liberals could grow their 4-3 majority to 5-2 this year. Democrats hope to build momentum ahead of what is expected to be a competitive midterm election year in the battleground state with their eyes on capturing an open governor’s seat and potentially flipping the GOP-controlled legislature.
Polling and official fundraising numbers suggest higher voter enthusiasm among Democrats, but some Republicans hope the lower-profile tenor of the race could boost their chances.
“There’s so little attention to it as to where people are, so I think it’s going to make that election result much less predictable than perhaps the last two have been,” Graul said.
Nathan Conrad, a campaign adviser to conservative-aligned Judge
Maria Lazar, said the race is “a return to the traditional Supreme Court races in Wisconsin, where it’s really looking at the issues and attempting to push the understanding that justice should be impartial.”
The new justice this year would be sworn in ahead of the November midterms. Since liberals retook the majority in 2023 and won again by a 10-point margin in 2025, the court struck down Wisconsin’s near-total abortion ban and ordered a redraw of the state’s Republican-drawn legislative maps.
What’s at stake
In a swing state with a divided government, the court could decide on a range of issues, including education funding, collective bargaining rights and abortion.
The April 7 race is technically nonpartisan, but recent elections have become politicized. Liberal-aligned Judge Chris Taylor is facing off against Lazar to serve a 10-year term on the court.
Wisconsin State Supreme Court candidate Chris Taylor poses Friday, Feb. 20, 2026, in Madison, Wisconsin.
John Hart/Wisconsin State Journal via AP
“If Judge Taylor is successful, that’s certainly going to cement a liberal majority on the court for quite some time,” Graul said. “That’s going to have a significant impact on decisions, everything from redistricting to the labor reforms that [Republican] Gov. [Scott] Walker passed.”
Ashley Franz, Taylor’s campaign manager, said while there might be less spending and national attention, “Wisconsinites understand the stakes are still incredibly high. This election is an opportunity to expand a majority that believes in protecting rights and freedoms instead of stripping them away.”
“Maria Lazar is a right-wing politician who has used the bench to rubber-stamp special interests and promote her own agenda. That’s the same extremism voters have rejected before and will again next week,” she said.
Wisconsin is home to some of the country’s most competitive elections. In 2024, Trump won the state by about one percentage point.
Trump so far sitting this one out
And a Trump endorsement is not a guaranteed path to victory. Trump-backed candidates in 2025 and 2023 lost their races.
For now, the president hasn’t weighed in — and Sauk County GOP Chair Jerry Helmer told ABC News that may be for the best.
“Wisconsin is such a purple state that sometimes it can hurt more,” Helmer said. “It’ll draw out more Democrats to vote for the Democrat than anything.”
Taylor has significantly outraised Lazar, according to recent campaign finance records.
The entrance to the Wisconsin Supreme Court chamber is seen at the Wisconsin State Capitol on Dec. 26, 2023, in Madison, Wisconsin.
Jon Elswick/AP
The 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election saw a surge in national funding from both sides, with overall spending exceeding $100 million, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
“Musk, both because of who he is and … at that point, his role in the Trump administration, was just a huge lightning rod last year,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.
Musk’s America PAC did not respond to a request for comment.
The Marquette Law School poll in March found that 12% of registered voters said they’d heard or read “a lot” about the 2026 Supreme Court race, up from 6% in February, compared to 39% in February 2025. The latest polling shows Taylor leading among registered voters, but 53% said they are undecided.
Polling also showed registered Democrats leading voter enthusiasm at 51%, compared to 32% of Republicans and 19% of independents.
“My crystal ball is dark”
Jon Sutton, the Democratic chair of Crawford County, agrees this year’s race is less charged — whether that hurts or helps his party remains to be seen.
Elon Musk enters the stage wearing a cheesehead during a town hall Sunday, March 30, 2025, in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Jeffrey Phelps/AP
Musk’s heavy involvement in 2025 likely pushed “some of the Republicans that might not have been as tuned into [the race] probably more likely at that point to vote,” Sutton said.
On the flip side, the lower temperature of this year’s race could also result in fewer Democrats turning out. “It’s just hard to predict — and my crystal ball is dark,” Sutton said.
Stephanie Soucek, Door County’s GOP chair, said this year’s race is “less intense and noisy,” but Republicans are still hoping to boost enthusiasm, sending personalized postcards and text messages to voters.
Less outside national influence could “even the playing field a little bit,” Soucek said.
ABC News’ Jared Kofsky contributed to this report.
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