March provides sports fans an opportunity to get off their most absurd picks and wildest takes, but usually, those predictions revolve around the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments.
No such tournament exists for MMA, but that hasn’t stopped us from creating our own hypothetical tournaments for the past few years. With the return to action of former UFC and PFL heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou on May 16 and the announcement that former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira will move up to MMA’s premier weight class on June 14, the big fellas will take center stage in this year’s bracket. Ngannou will take on Philipe Lins on the upcoming MVP MMA fight card, while Pereira will square off with Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC heavyweight belt at the White House.
To determine the seeding, ESPN’s resident MMA divisional ranker, Brett Okamoto, sorted through the top heavyweights across the sport. Afterward, the fighters were pitted against each other in a head-to-head tournament to determine who would hypothetically earn the right to cut down the net as our heavyweight winner.
Okamoto, Andreas Hale and Jeff Wagenheim explain how they believe each fight would play out.
Sweet 16
(1) Tom Aspinall vs. (16) Gable Steveson
Winner: Aspinall by KO/TKO
How Aspinall wins: This matchup isn’t as wacky as you might initially think. Former UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight champ Jon Jones, who happens to train alongside Steveson, has predicted the Olympic gold medal wrestler will win a UFC championship by 2027. That is to be expected, given Jones’ close relationship with Steveson, but it’s also a reflection on the 25-year-old’s potential. That said, Aspinall runs circles around Steveson at this point, utilizing his footwork, boxing and all-around world-class skill set. Steveson could be the future of heavyweight MMA, but Aspinall is the present. — Okamoto
(8) Alex Pereira vs. (9) Vadim Nemkov
Winner: Pereira by KO/TKO
How Pereira wins: In my eyes, this is the most competitive of the eight quarterfinal matchups. In fact, I picked Nemkov to win, but Pereira advances with the support of Brett and Andreas. Nemkov is well-rounded and would put Pereira in a world of trouble on the canvas. But the Russian is not an overpowering heavyweight — like Pereira, he’s a former light heavyweight — and does not present the kind of size difference that would make Pereira reconsider his life choices. Nemkov is unbeaten in 15 fights dating back a full decade, but Pereira is a big step up in competition for him. — Wagenheim
(4) Sergei Pavlovich vs. (13) Ante Delija
Winner: Pavlovich by second-round KO
How Pavlovich wins: Pavlovich might not be the runaway train he was when he first arrived on the scene. He knocked out six consecutive opponents before being stopped by Aspinall in November 2023. But he’s still good enough to get past Delija. Pavlovich’s only professional losses came against Alexander Volkov, Alistair Overeem and Aspinall, so he remains a high-level MMA fighter. The powerful Russian still packs a punch, and Delija would almost certainly stand and trade with him, which gives Pavlovich the opening he needs to finish the fight with a one-punch knockout in Round 2. — Hale
(5) Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. (12) Derrick Lewis
Winner: Cortes-Acosta by first-round KO/TKO
How Cortes-Acosta wins: As it happens, we get a first-round rematch of a fight that took place less than three months ago at UFC 324. Lewis will go down as one of the most fan-friendly heavyweights of all time, but he has run into his fair share of stylistic nightmares as he has gotten older, and Cortes-Acosta is one of them. More often than not, Cortes-Acosta is too savvy and too durable to fall victim to Lewis’ one-punch power. This fight is a repeat of their first, and Cortes-Acosta moves on comfortably via an early stoppage. — Okamoto
(2) Alexander Volkov vs. (15) Valter Walker
Winner: Walker by first-round submission
How Walker wins: You know when some mid-major basketball team from a college you’ve never heard of gives a blue-blood program all it can handle in the first round of March Madness? This is the MMA version of that. Walker is a 15-seed because he has had just five UFC fights against competition far inferior to what Volkov has faced in his 18 trips inside the Octagon. But Walker has won four fights in a row, all by heel hook, and a narrowly focused grappling specialist can be as dangerous as an Ivy League hoops team that runs backdoor cuts the No. 2-seed hasn’t seen all season. — Wagenheim
(7) Curtis Blaydes vs. (10) Serghei Spivac
Winner: Blaydes by unanimous decision
How Blaydes wins: This is an incredibly difficult matchup for Spivac. Considering Blaydes’ improved striking and impressive wrestling, Spivac gets completely neutralized for the duration of the fight. Wrestling has always been Blaydes bread and butter, which snuffs out Spivac’s grappling. While neither is considered a devastating striker, Blaydes is savvy enough to stay out of danger. Most of the fight is spent on the canvas, with Blaydes securing early takedowns and maintaining top control while mixing in ground-and-pound to drown an overmatched Spivac for 15 unexciting minutes. — Hale
(3) Ciryl Gane vs. (14) Renan Ferreira
Winner: Gane by unanimous decision
How Gane wins: This is the sleeper matchup of the opening round, and it could be the one that steals the show. Gane would look to stay light on his feet, pouncing in and out of range — while Ferreira chases him down with absolute haymakers. Gane and Ferreira are arguably the two top athletes in this pool, and they face off in this one fight. Gane’s technique presents a maddening puzzle for most heavyweights, but Ferreira is one of the few who possess the speed to catch him. Ferreira has his moments and even drops Gane in an early exchange, but Gane recovers and systematically wears him down to take a decision. — Okamoto
(6) Francis Ngannou vs. (11) Rizvan Kuniev
Winner: Ngannou by second-round KO/TKO
How Ngannou wins: Kuniev is a solid heavyweight with just one loss in his past 13 fights, but he has his hands full against the forward-moving buzzsaw that is Ngannou. The one thing in Kuniev’s favor is that Ngannou could come in rusty, having one MMA fight since January 2022. Kuniev has not been so active either, and he has not faced anything like the power and aggression of Ngannou. Kuniev has never been knocked out, but there’s a first time for everything. — Wagenheim
Elite Eight
(1) Aspinall vs. (8) Pereira
Winner: Aspinall by second-round TKO
How Aspinall wins: This is a massive fight on paper, but it ends up being one-sided. Between Aspinall’s grappling and ability to close the distance quickly, this is a nightmare opponent for Pereira. “Poatan” thrives in striking-only scenarios, and the UFC has primarily paired him with opponents who are willing to participate in kickboxing matches. It’s impressive that he’s gotten this far without having to face many high-level grapplers at 185 and 205 pounds. Unfortunately, the two-division champion must stand across the cage from an incredibly athletic fighter with superb takedowns and grappling on the canvas. Aspinall is too smart to stand and trade with Pereira for an extended period and would close the gap quickly. From there, Aspinall puts the Brazilian on his back and bludgeons him until Pereira gives up his back or the fight is stopped in the second round. — Hale
(4) Pavlovich vs. (5) Cortes-Acosta
Winner: Cortes-Acosta by split decision
How Cortes-Acosta wins: It’s a tournament of rematches for Cortes-Acosta, as he faces another foe he has already seen in the Octagon, Pavlovich. Cortes-Acosta lost to Pavlovich in August 2025. So what makes us think the rematch would go differently? Momentum is the obvious answer. Since they fought seven months ago, Cortes-Acosta has been on a mission, recording three knockouts, while Pavlovich hasn’t even fought. Pavlovich clearly established himself as the better fighter in their first meeting, but this is the heavyweight division. There’s more volatility here than in other divisions. Momentum, activity and timing can matter even more. We’re taking the hot hand in Cortes-Acosta. — Okamoto
(7) Blaydes vs. (15) Walker
Winner: Blaydes by split decision
How Blaydes wins: Blaydes is one of the strongest wrestlers in heavyweight MMA, so he certainly can take this fight to the canvas — but that’s right where Walker will want it. So Blaydes elects to use his wrestling skills defensively, keeping the submission specialist on his feet and avoiding the threat of Walker’s go-to heel hook. Either way, Blaydes is experienced enough to safely dictate how this fight plays out. Even with his limited stand-up skills, Blaydes overwhelms Walker and advances. — Wagenheim
(3) Gane vs. (6) Ngannou
Winner: Ngannou by second-round KO/TKO
How Ngannou wins: We saw what a one-legged Ngannou did to Gane in 2022, when the then-heavyweight champion wrestled his way to victory. Gane facing a fully healthy Ngannou doesn’t go much better for the Frenchman. Ngannou knows he can outwrestle Gane and would look to bring the fight to the canvas again if he can’t connect with a fight-ending punch early. The threat of being taken down gives Gane enough to worry about that he eventually lowers his guard and gets clobbered by Ngannou, who is a much different fighter in the stand-up than when they met four years ago. Gane’s movement and striking gives the former UFC champion problems early, but Ngannou’s time as a boxer helps him cut off the cage and eventually get his hands on Gane. Unlike their first meeting, this one doesn’t go the distance, as Ngannou pounds his way to victory in Round 2. — Hale
Final Four
(1) Aspinall vs. (5) Cortes-Acosta
Winner: Aspinall by first-round KO/TKO
How Aspinall wins: Cortes-Acosta has been the Cinderella of this tournament. What do we always say about March Madness? Look for momentum. Right now, that’s Cortes-Acosta. And if you want to talk about someone devoid of momentum? No one has had a more frustrating time in MMA as of late than Aspinall. But he is still Tom Aspinall, and he’s the best heavyweight in the world until someone definitively proves otherwise. Aspinall is quicker, more technical and a better wrestler. Plenty of observers looking to predict an upset might take Cortes-Acosta here, but it doesn’t pan out. Aspinall gets a finish inside the opening round. — Okamoto
(6) Ngannou vs. (7) Blaydes
Winner: Ngannou by first-round KO/TKO
How Ngannou wins: This is a trilogy matchup. The two previous meetings between these fighters ended as knockout wins for Ngannou, but the fights played out differently. The first fight, in 2016, was the second UFC appearance for Ngannou, and his inexperience showed — but so did his power. Blaydes landed two takedowns and held his own in the stand-up, but at the end of Round 2, his right eye was swollen shut and the cageside doctor stopped it. Two-and-a-half years later, Ngannou’s first right hand of the fight dropped Blaydes and the bout was waved off in 45 seconds. Nothing changes this time. — Wagenheim
Championship
(1) Aspinall vs. (6) Ngannou
Winner: Aspinall by unanimous decision
How Aspinall wins: As great as this matchup is between two of the best heavyweights of this era, it’s difficult to look past Ngannou’s inactivity over the past half-decade. It all boils down to Aspinall’s athleticism and wrestling because he would have to be an absolute fool to engage in a striking match with Ngannou. Aspinall deploys every tool in his toolbox to get the win over Ngannou. The victory doesn’t come easy, as Ngannou has demonstrated improved takedown defense over the years and better distance management, courtesy of his detour into boxing. Aspinall is forced to work for his takedowns, as Ngannou won’t give him anything easy. Aspinall goes the distance for the first time in his MMA career, wearing down Ngannou with a mixture of technical striking, opportunistic takedowns and high-level grappling. We’ve seen Ngannou taken down and smothered before, and while he’s a more complete fighter than he was against Stipe Miocic in 2018, Aspinall proves he is a different beast. Ngannou has his moments and even staggers the UFC heavyweight champ, but Aspinall does enough to control long stretches of the fight and convince all three judges to see it his way. — Hale
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