Mike Clay
Multiple Authors
If you’re not already aware, I’m the human who creates the fantasy football player projections here at ESPN. Although some would swear the projection numbers are automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not. I have a lengthy process that involves a mixture of statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this column truly comes in handy. To begin each NFL season, I go team by team and analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, on the player level, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player.
I recently completed that process and — same as in recent years — took a few notes. Below are my observations, as well as a brief application to fantasy football in 2026.
Be sure to also check out my detailed 2026 NFL Projection PDF Guide, which is routinely updated throughout the offseason.
1. After averaging 4.3 targets and 7.6 fantasy points per game during his first 38 NFL games, Michael Wilson broke out with Jacoby Brissett under center during the final eight games of 2025, averaging 11 targets and 21.2 fantasy PPG. The stretch also coincided with Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with health issues (Harrison totaled a 7-83-0 receiving line on 11 targets in three partial games during that span), and it’s worth noting that Wilson’s receiving lines in the three games Harrison was active weren’t quite as good (3-36-0, 2-52-1, 5-89-1). A healthy Harrison (along with Trey McBride) figures to lead to a return to earth for Wilson, but he did enough late last season to warrant WR3/flex consideration in drafts.
2. Lamar Jackson is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks of all time, but his legs may no longer be the factor they used to be. Jackson’s share of Baltimore’s designed rushing attempts has decreased each of the past four seasons (from 25.9% in 2021 to 10.9% last season). Granted, he missed four games in 2025, but his 67-349-1 rushing line was, by far, a career low. Jackson has only one carry inside the opponent’s 5-yard line over the past two seasons. On the plus side, Jackson did continue to scramble at a high rate (8.4%), which suggests we could see a bit of a rebound if he’s healthy in 2026.
3. After missing nearly the entire first half of 2025, Jalen Coker passed Xavier Legette and took on a larger offensive role opposite Tetairoa McMillan. During Weeks 8-19 (11 games, including the playoffs), Coker played 73% of the snaps and handled a 17.8% target share. The fantasy output was inconsistent (under 11.5 points in seven games), but he peaked down the stretch (14-plus points in four of his final six, including a 9-134-1 showing against the Rams in the playoffs). Coker’s strong finish is encouraging, though his rookie season went similarly (14-plus points three times, but under 11 in the other nine games). A healthy 2026 could get Coker to the next level, but flex production is his likely ceiling as long as McMillan is commanding one-quarter (if not more) of the targets in Carolina’s Bryce Young-led offense.
4. After averaging 4.1 targets and 8.5 fantasy points per game over his first 14 NFL games, Colston Loveland leaped to 12 targets (10-plus in each) and 20.0 fantasy PPG during his final four games of 2025 (including the playoffs). For perspective, there have been only 12 other instances of a tight end seeing 10-plus targets in four consecutive regular-season games in NFL history. Those tight ends: Kellen Winslow Sr., Jeremy Shockey, Shannon Sharpe, Brandon Pettigrew, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Tyler Higbee, Tony Gonzalez (four times) and Zach Ertz. That’s an extremely impressive list, and it’s noteworthy that only Shockey achieved it as a rookie. Loveland enters his age-22 season positioned for a massive workload alongside Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. Midrange fantasy TE1 should be his floor.
5. Speaking of impressive rookie tight ends, Harold Fannin Jr. overcame the presence of David Njoku and a quarterback merry-go-round to produce a 72-731-6 receiving line (plus 7-13-1 rushing) as a 21-year-old rookie last season. The third-round pick’s 108 targets are eighth most of all time by a rookie tight end (per StatHead), trailing only Brock Bowers, Shockey, Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts Sr. and Keith Jackson. Cleveland still has quarterback woes, but with Njoku gone, Fannin has a path to improve a bit on his 21% target share.
6. George Pickens is fresh off a career year in which he posted a 93-1,429-9 receiving line on 138 targets, all of which are easily career highs. Fantasy’s reigning No. 5-scoring receiver certainly benefited from CeeDee Lamb missing time due to injury (24% target share, or 8.8 per game, and 24.2 fantasy PPG in four games Lamb was injured), but his “with Lamb” splits were also strong. Consider: In 12 full games with Lamb, Pickens handled a 23% target share (8.3 per game) and averaged 16.1 fantasy PPG, compared with 27% (9.8) and 16.6 PPG for Lamb. Over the full season, Pickens’ 16.1 PPG would have ranked eighth at the position. He has the look of a strong WR2 in 2026.
7. With J.K. Dobbins active during Weeks 1-10 (10 games), RJ Harvey handled 50 carries (20% team share) and 29 targets (9%), compared with Dobbins’ 153 carries (60%) and 15 targets (4%). With Dobbins sidelined for the team’s remaining nine games (including playoffs), Harvey handled 115 carries (55%) and 41 targets (13%). He averaged 10.0 fantasy PPG with Dobbins and 14.2 PPG without, though his 3.3 yards per carry during the final nine games was very poor. With the entire Denver backfield returning for 2026, we should expect similar deployment (perhaps with a bit more Harvey in Year 2), which would limit both to flex production.
8. Troy Franklin‘s target share fell from 22% in 11 games prior to Denver’s Week 12 bye (12.0 fantasy PPG) to 11% in six healthy games after that point (7.6 PPG). Now behind Courtland Sutton, newcomer Jaylen Waddle and seemingly sophomore Pat Bryant, Franklin will battle the likes of Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil’Jordan Humphrey for snaps and targets. He’s well off the fantasy radar.
9. Detroit has a new offensive playcaller in Drew Petzing. During his three seasons calling plays for Arizona, the Cardinals had two-plus tight ends on the field on a league-high 43% of their offensive plays. This reliance on the position helped McBride to a massive 26% target share during that span, but we also saw production from Ertz prior to injury in 2023, and Elijah Higgins sported a 64-636-3 receiving line on 80 targets during Petzing’s run. Detroit already leans toward heavier offensive packages, and that could be the case even more in 2026 with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams at receiver and LaPorta, Brock Wright and newcomer Tyler Conklin at tight end. Assuming his back issues are behind him, the 25-year-old LaPorta has the look of a safe, midrange TE1 with upside for more.
10. The Packers drafted six wide receivers during Matt LaFleur’s first six seasons in Green Bay (2019-24). The target shares did not increase much from Year 1 to Year 2 for any of those players, and here is the evidence: Jayden Reed (17% as a rookie, 16% in Year 2), Christian Watson (15% to 16%), Romeo Doubs (16% to 18%), Dontayvion Wicks (11% to 16%), Samori Toure (3% to 5%) and Amari Rodgers (1% to 2%). This is notable, as Matthew Golden (12% share as a rookie) and Savion Williams (3%) are both entering their sophomore seasons in Green Bay. Golden is the lone first-round pick of the group and, with Doubs gone, is positioned for a larger role, but it’s reasonable to think that he may not push past an 18-20% target share, which would severely limit his fantasy ceiling. Similarly, Williams’ Year 2 breakout chances aren’t great.
11. In DeMeco Ryans’ three seasons with Houston, the Texans’ RB target shares are 15%, 17% and, most recently, 13%. Those are all well below average and, considering the team’s strong wide receiver depth, it’s hard to imagine a big boost coming in 2026. David Montgomery and Woody Marks haven’t been big factors in the passing game in recent seasons, and that figures to continue, which will limit their PPR upside.
12. Back in 2024, Brian Thomas Jr. played nine full games with Trevor Lawrence. Thomas averaged 5.8 targets and 14.4 fantasy PPG during the stretch, prior to making a big leap to 10 targets and 19.3 PPG with Mac Jones under center down the stretch. Last season, Thomas played 15 games with Lawrence and averaged 6.2 targets and 9.9 PPG, with better production in the first half of the season prior to the acquisition of Jakobi Meyers and emergence of Parker Washington. Thomas has boom/bust written all over him.
13. Speaking of Jaguars receivers, Washington has a route participation above 50% in 21 games since the start of 2024. In those games, he handled a 20% target share and averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG. In fact, in six games with Meyers, Thomas and TE Brenton Strange all active last season (one of which Washington left injured), Washington handled 48 targets (26% share), compared with 40 for Meyers (21%), 30 for Strange (16%) and 27 for Thomas (14%). That includes a stretch of four straight games with nine-plus targets and 19-plus fantasy points to end the season. Washington, a 2023 sixth-round pick, appears to have cemented a big role in Jacksonville, though he’ll need to compete with the aforementioned trio and, to some extent, Travis Hunter for targets.
14. Running back targets have been hard for Chargers RBs to find with Greg Roman calling the offense over the past two seasons. During those years, Los Angeles backs handled target shares of 11% and 13%, both of which ranked near the basement of the league and well below the 2025 NFL rate of 18%. The question is, is this something that will continue with Justin Herbert under center, or will it increase with Mike McDaniel calling plays? History suggests the latter. In 2020 (Herbert’s rookie season) with Shane Steichen calling plays, Chargers RBs had a 25% target share. With Joe Lombardi, it was 19% in 2021 and 25% in 2022. It dipped to 15% with Kellen Moore in 2023, though that’s not a surprise in a Moore scheme. (He has never had an RB target share over 18%.) McDaniel’s four Miami offenses averaged a 20% RB target share (20%-plus each of the past three seasons), and that doesn’t include 3% to fullbacks. Granted, McDaniel was working with De’Von Achane during three of those years, but Omarion Hampton entered the league as a capable receiver, having caught 38 passes in 12 games in his final season at North Carolina. Expect more work in the passing game for Hampton, which further cements his breakout potential.
15. Kyren Williams‘ percentage of the Rams’ designed rushing attempts over the past three seasons are as follows: 71% (2023), 75% (2024), 56% (2025). Williams’ usage was obviously rolled back, but it was offset a bit by a boost in both rushing and receiving efficiency. Williams only dipped from 16.7 fantasy PPG in 2024 to 16.0 in 2025 and, based on the backfield’s success last season, it’s fair to expect Blake Corum to remain a big factor in the run game. Williams has the look of a good RB2 in an elite Rams offense.
16. Speaking of the Rams’ backfield, Sean McVay has been with the team for nine seasons and his running backs have handled a lowly 13% target share during the span. The group has been in the 10-13% range each of the past seven seasons and has never cleared 20%. Needless to say, Williams, who has never cleared 36 catches in a season, and Corum are unlikely to see a boost in targets this season.
17. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell comes from the McVay coaching tree, so this should be no surprise: During O’Connell’s four seasons in Minnesota, Vikings RBs have handled a 14% target share, falling in the 12-17% range all four years. As the roster currently stands, Aaron Jones Sr. would handle a bulk of that share, as Jordan Mason is a nonfactor in the passing game. However, if the Vikings add a back during the draft, this nugget will be notable as we evaluate that back’s PPR outlook.
18. Speaking of Minnesota, let’s discuss the offense with new QB Kyler Murray under center. Check out the percentage of Arizona’s offensive TDs that were passes during Murray’s tenure (starting with 2019 and excluding a 2025 season in which he missed 12 games): 53%, 55%, 53%, 53%, 51%, 54%. On the other hand, head coach and playcaller Kevin O’Connell’s four Minnesota offenses have scored 70% of touchdowns through the air, which is second highest behind only the Bengals’ Zac Taylor since 2022 (minimum 35 games called). Murray has never finished a season top 10 in passing yards or touchdowns and has finished top 20 in YPA once (2021). Perhaps O’Connell will unlock something in the 28-year-old, but odds are that his skill set will limit the team’s passing game. That’s concerning for the fantasy outlook of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
19. Alvin Kamara is entering his age-31 season and, regardless of which team he’s on, there’s little reason to believe it will end with a strong fantasy showing. Over the past decade, the following 31-or-older RBs have posted a top-30 fantasy campaign: Frank Gore (12th in 2016), Darren Sproles (24th in 2016), Frank Gore (19th in 2017), Marshawn Lynch (24th in 2017), Adrian Peterson (19th in 2018), Raheem Mostert (fifth in 2023) and Derrick Henry (eighth in 2025). Many of these backs are different stylistically to Kamara, and the two that have achieved a top-30 finish over the past seven seasons were heavily reliant on touchdowns (Henry 16, Mostert 21). Kamara hasn’t cleared nine TDs in a season since 2020 and scored once last season while also seeing a major dip in receiving work (career-low 39 targets).
20. In 18 career full games, Malik Nabers has a massive 35% target share. That works out to 11.3 per game, and he’s averaging 18.2 fantasy PPG during that span. Nabers has a new quarterback (Jaxson Dart threw only three passes his way last season), a new coach (John Harbaugh) and a new offensive playcaller (Matt Nagy) and is recovering from a torn ACL, so there are a lot of variables here, but the 22-year-old and former No. 6 draft pick still holds elite upside.
21. New Steelers head coach and offensive playcaller Mike McCarthy has a rich history of not using the running back position in the passing game. In fact, his RB target share sits at 14% (15% including fullbacks) since 2012 and didn’t clear 18% during any of those 12 campaigns. (Reminder: The NFL RB average was 19% last season.) Similarly, McCarthy’s offenses never cleared a tight end target share of 24% during the span. This is all notable, as the 2025 Steelers sported target shares of 25% to running backs and 29% to tight ends. McCarthy’s résumé suggests both numbers will dip, which will benefit a new-look wide receiver room that now includes Michael Pittman Jr. but limit the PPR output of Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle.
22. Including the playoffs, Christian McCaffrey had a massive 450 touches last season. That’s fourth most since 2011 and not far off Saquon Barkley’s 482 in 2024, which was the most a running back has handled since DeMarco Murray had 497 in 2014. Since 2011, there have now been 16 instances of a back reaching 400 touches (including the playoffs). Excluding Le’Veon Bell (who infamously skipped the 2018 season), our sample of 14 RBs went on to average 12.6 games (five played every game) and 18.0 fantasy PPG the following regular season. Ten of the 14 saw a dip in fantasy PPG and only five repeated as top-five fantasy scorers. Perhaps most concerning is age. Of the five who repeated as top-five scorers, four were 26 years old or younger (Ezekiel Elliott 24, Ray Rice 25, Derrick Henry 26, Bell 25). The exception is Marshawn Lynch (28), who was younger than the age McCaffrey will be next season (30), and Lynch barely hit the 400-touch threshold (403). Due to his skill set and usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn, so perhaps he can overcome history, but there’s obvious risk here.
23. George Kittle (torn Achilles during last season’s playoffs) is likely to miss some time to open the 2026 season. That positions Jake Tonges as the Niners’ starting tight end. Kittle missed seven full games last season (Weeks 2-6, 17, 20). During those games, Tonges handled a 17.9% target share (6.6 per game) and posted a 34-328-3 receiving line. That works out to 11.8 fantasy PPG, which would’ve ranked eighth among all tight ends last season, ahead of the likes of Fannin, Kelce, Warren and Jake Ferguson. Tonges will be in the back-end TE1 mix as long as Kittle is sidelined.
24. In 13 games together last season, Tony Pollard handled 54% of the Titans’ offensive snaps, 63% of the designed runs and 8% of the targets, whereas Tyjae Spears handled 46% of the snaps, 26% of the carries and 12% of the targets. Pollard averaged 11.1 fantasy PPG, compared with 8.6 for Spears. In 2024, Pollard handled 62% of the designed runs and 12% of the targets, compared with 27% and 10%, respectively, for Spears (Pollard 11.9 PPG, Spears 9.1 PPG). With the same duo in place for 2026, we should expect similar deployment. Pollard is the preferred fantasy option, though the 28-year-old is no more than a low-ceiling flex.
25. On a per-game basis, Terry McLaurin has handled a target share in the 21.8-24.5% range all six seasons in the NFL. In fact, prior to averaging 6.0 targets per game during an injury-plagued 2025, he averaged 7.5, 7.1, 7.7, 7.0 and 7.4 targets per game the prior five seasons. That’s incredibly consistent usage, albeit a bit low considering his history. With a healthy Jayden Daniels and a new playcaller in David Blough, McLaurin is a prime bounce-back candidate and best valued as a mid-to-back-end WR2.
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