MLB’s regular season gets underway Wednesday night with a game between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants before a full schedule Thursday with 11 Opening Day games. And you know what that means: It’s time for season predictions.
There are lots of questions, in both the American League and National League, going into the 2026 season: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers be the first team to three-peat as World Series champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees? How will stars in new places — such as Freddy Peralta for the New York Mets or Alex Bregman for the Chicago Cubs — fare? Which team will come out on top in a competitive AL East? What will we see from Shohei Ohtani in his first full season as a two-way player for the Dodgers? And what surprises will the playoffs bring this year?
No one can definitively know what’s in store for this season, but that doesn’t stop us from making our best guesses. We asked 30 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors to predict what will happen in baseball this year, from the wild-card contenders all the way to the World Series champion, plus the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in both leagues.
For each category, we’ve asked a number of our voters to explain their predictions. Will they hit the nail on the head — or will they be way off their mark? Only time will tell. We’ll be circling back to these predictions come October to see how well (or poorly) everyone did.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our pick: New York Yankees (16 votes)
Who else received votes? Toronto Blue Jays (8), Boston Red Sox (6)
Despite the Blue Jays being the reigning AL champs, our voters favored the Yankees to win the division. What made New York the pick? The Blue Jays dominated the Yankees last season, both during the regular season and in the AL Division Series, but, remember, these clubs finished with identical 94-68 records. Yes, the Blue Jays were two outs from winning the whole thing. And yes the Yankees are “running it back.” But are they really? New York overhauled its roster over the course of last season, punctuated by a busy trade deadline. Marcus Stroman and DJ LeMahieu are out of baseball after playing significant roles in the first half. Oswald Peraza was one of the worst hitters in the majors before the Yankees dealt him.
The floor for this Yankees team is higher over 162 games as long as three-time MVP Aaron Judge stays healthy. Add Gerrit Cole’s impending return, Ben Rice’s anticipated development and the potential for Carlos Lagrange’s 102 mph fastball to show up in the Bronx and the Yankees could be loaded. As for the Blue Jays, they had themselves a very busy offseason, adding Dylan Cease among others, but injuries to the rotation have already surfaced and Bo Bichette’s departure is significant. — Jorge Castillo
And the Red Sox as the pick? Why? The Red Sox shook off the Rafael Devers mini controversy and righted the ship last season to the tune of 89 wins. There’s no reason they can’t take the next step, possessing a well-rounded roster that also includes a really good top of the rotation in Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray. Not to mention Boston gets a full year of Roman Anthony. It’s a sneaky good lineup behind him. The sum will be better than the parts for the Red Sox — and the parts aren’t shabby. — Jesse Rogers
AL Central
Our pick: Detroit Tigers (23 votes)
Who else received votes? Kansas City Royals (6), Cleveland Guardians (1)
Detroit was the overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why do you think that is? It feels as if all of the prevailing trend winds are fluffing up the Tigers’ sails. They’ve fallen one win short of the ALCS two years in a row with a roster still maturing and an incomplete starting rotation. Now, the Tigers have augmented their continuity with targeted pick-ups as much of the lineup is in or entering prime seasons, the rotation looks top-to-bottom strong, there’s a new closer in Kenley Jansen that makes the rest of a versatile bullpen that much better and, on top of it all, they have impact hitters from the system to raise the ceiling, starting with Kevin McGonigle. This is the team for which everything seems to be coming together. — Bradford Doolittle
AL West
Our pick: Seattle Mariners (25 votes)
Who else received votes? Houston Astros (3), Texas Rangers (1), Athletics (1)
The AL West has been a three-team race in recent season, but our voters are overwhelmingly favoring Seattle this year. What makes the Mariners the team to beat? The Mariners have the best rotation in the AL with five starters who are good enough to start on Opening Day. They have a deep bullpen, led by closer Andres Munoz. They came within one win of going to the World Series last year, and they improved their offense in several ways this winter, the biggest being the acquisition of second baseman Brendan Donovan. They have first baseman Josh Naylor for a full season, and it’s only a matter of time before Julio Rodriguez gets off to a good start and carries the offense along with Cal Raleigh. The Mariners got a good taste of the playoffs last year. They want more. — Tim Kurkjian
AL wild cards
Our picks: Toronto Blue Jays (21), Boston Red Sox (19), New York Yankees (14)
Who else received votes? Kansas City Royals (10), Baltimore Orioles (7), Houston Astros (5), Seattle Mariners (5), Detroit Tigers (4), Texas Rangers (3), Athletics (1), Cleveland Guardians (1)
Our voters view the three most likely wild-card teams to all be AL East teams. What does that say about the state of that division? It’s the best division in baseball — and largely has been this decade, with four different division winners in the past five seasons (only the Red Sox haven’t won) and all five teams having playoff hopes. It’s not just a matter of high payrolls. The Yankees and Blue Jays start the season ranked third and fifth, but the Red Sox (13th), Orioles (16th) and Rays (28th) aren’t in the top 10. This is about competition: Four of the five teams had aggressive offseasons (while the Yankees made additions at last season’s trade deadline). Maybe the division wins its first World Series title since 2018. — David Schoenfield
Many of our voters picked Detroit to win the AL Central but still have Kansas City making the playoffs. Why are the Royals a popular wild-card pick? Last year’s Royals won only four fewer games than their 2024 wild-card counterpart, despite injuries to key starters Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, and ultimately finished five games out of a playoff spot. I’m optimistic about a healthier season from both starters, and I’m bullish on their young, up-and-coming lineup, including expecting breakout years from Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen to strengthen what was already an underrated offense led by Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia. But this is also about the divisional competition: The Royals can pad their win total against the rebuilding Twins and White Sox, and I’m among those who also believe this won’t be an especially good Guardians season. — Tristan Cockcroft
As the lone voter to choose the A’s to make the postseason as a wild-card team, how do they get there? Truth be told, I made this same pick last year — I was just a year early. Over the final 99 games of last season, the A’s went 53-46. That’s no small sample size, and it’s what’s driving this pick. If not for a 1-20 stretch last May/June, their overall record would look a lot different. I know, I know, all those games do count — but if that kind of stretch came later in the season, I might feel different. Their team feels more like the one that was scary to play in the second half. The A’s can hit. We know that. But can they pitch? A year at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park under their collective belts can only help on the mound, right? Stay tuned. — Rogers
AL champion
Our pick: Seattle Mariners (15)
Who else received votes? Boston Red Sox (6), Detroit Tigers (5), New York Yankees (3), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
As the only voter to pick the reigning AL champions to win it again, make Toronto’s case. The better question here might be how am I the only voter who picked the reigning AL champions — a team that pushed the Dodgers to the max — again? Despite any skepticism that the Blue Jays can do it again, I believe the version we saw in the second half and in the postseason is the real version. Their contact gains were real and they outslugged everyone in the AL when it mattered most. And then they went out and acquired the best free agent pitcher to move this offseason.
There hasn’t been a repeat World Series matchup in 48 years (Dodgers-Yankees, 1977-78) but Toronto has enough talent to set up a rematch with L.A. this October. — Dan Mullen
NL East
Our pick: New York Mets (16 votes)
Who else received votes? Philadelphia Phillies (13), Atlanta Braves (1)
Make the case for the Mets to take home the division title: Between the Mets and Phillies, I like the Mets’ young depth — Ryan Clifford, Ronny Mauricio, Jacob Reimer, Nick Morabito, A.J. Ewing, Jonah Tong and Christian Scott will all open the season in Triple-A — as cover for when things don’t go as planned, while the Phillies have only two or three players at that level in Triple-A. The Mets also have younger position players (Carson Benge, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty) that need to fill one or two spots in the lineup (with that cover in Triple-A still behind them), while the Phillies need prospects Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to work in center field and the rotation, respectively. I also like the Mets having key players in contract years such as Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. I choose to see this as a positive, with all three (and a few more role players) knowing there are big stakes to put up big numbers. — Kiley McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies to take home the division title: Reports of the Phillies’ downfall have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, Bo Bichette left them at the altar only to sign with their biggest nemesis, necessitating a J.T. Realmuto overpay as their pivot. Yes, Ranger Suarez signed a $130 million deal in Boston, rendering an Andrew Painter emergence a necessity and not a luxury. Even so, Philadelphia still has a top-five rotation, an improved bullpen and a lineup with a 1-2-3 punch that can hang with anybody. — Paul Hembekides
NL Central
Our pick: Chicago Cubs (27 votes)
Who else received votes? Milwaukee Brewers (3)
What makes the Cubs the overwhelming favorite to win the division this year? If not now, when? The Cubs have their highest payroll, are deeper than any of their more recent teams, had a taste of the playoffs last year and should be playing peak Cubs baseball under now third-year manager Craig Counsell. Their only real question entering the spring revolved around the ninth inning, but hard-throwing Daniel Palencia answered that question without even being in camp. He dominated for Venezuela in the WBC. The only thing standing in the Cubs’ way? The Brewers. It’s Chicago’s division … until it’s not. — Rogers
NL West
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (29 votes)
Who else received votes? San Diego Padres (1)
Again, the Dodgers seem to be inevitable. What makes it so hard for the other NL West teams to beat them? Well, let’s go back 12 months. Around this time last year, we were wondering if the Dodgers might challenge the 2001 Seattle Mariners for the regular-season wins record. They then became the first team in a quarter century to repeat as champions — albeit after a relatively disappointing regular season — and have since improved. Not just a little, but a lot.
They plugged their biggest hole (the ninth inning) with the best closer in baseball (Edwin Diaz) and their second-biggest hole (one outfield spot) with the best free agent available (Kyle Tucker). On paper, they boast one of the best lineups in baseball history. Their pitching depth, meanwhile, is second to none at the moment. And as evidenced by their 12 division titles in 13 years, they are experts at navigating the regular season, even if they don’t always go full throttle. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild cards
Our picks: Milwaukee Brewers (18 votes), Philadelphia Phillies (17), Atlanta Braves (14)
Who else received votes? New York Mets (13), Pittsburgh Pirates (11), San Diego Padres (8), Cincinnati Reds (2), San Francisco Giants (2), Miami Marlins (2), Chicago Cubs (1), Arizona Diamondbacks (1), Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
You picked the three teams that received the most votes: Atlanta, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Why will this be the NL wild-card field? There is a wide second tier in baseball right now, at least if you put the Dodgers in their own tier and call that the first tier. You can argue that the three best non-Dodger rosters entering this season are the three leading contenders in the NL East. Only one can take the division and right now, I’ve got that as the Mets, who passed the Braves as the favorite this spring because of Atlanta’s injury woes.
Seasons rarely play out exactly how we think they might, but right now, it looks as if there are two up-for-grabs playoff slots in the NL — the Central title and the third wild card, since we’re putting the Phillies and Braves in the first two wild-card spots. I think the Cubs have done enough to be anointed Central favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers are in a pack who could vie for the wild-card slot, and after what they’ve proved over the past couple of years, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. — Doolittle
Cincinnati received no division votes and only two wild-card votes, one of which was yours. How will the Reds make a wild-card push in a packed NL field? The Reds made the playoffs last year, and appear to be better — potentially much better — on offense this season. They added Eugenio Suarez, who hit 49 homers and drove in 118 runs last year and is also a team leader. Sal Stewart is a great young hitter, which we saw last September. Elly De La Cruz looks as if he might take another big step forward. And Matt McLain had a phenomenal spring: .529 with more homers (seven) than strikeouts (six). The rotation is shaky without Hunter Greene until July, and now Nick Lodolo has a blister issue. If the Reds can piece together the rotation, they can make the playoffs again. — Kurkjian
The Pirates seem to have some excitement building around them. What makes you think they can take it to the next level this season? The Reds earned a wild-card spot last year with 83 wins, and the Diamondbacks and Marlins made it in 2023 with 84 wins, so the bar might not be too high. With Paul Skenes, Rookie of the Year contender Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, there are high hopes for the rotation. But can the Pirates score enough runs? Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna are minor upgrades, so Oneil Cruz will have to hit and Konnor Griffin must provide a spark when he gets called up. If that happens, they can make the playoffs for the first time since 2015. — Schoenfield
NL champion
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (27 votes)
Who else received votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2), New York Mets (1)
The Dodgers received all but three votes. What will be their biggest hurdle in getting back to the World Series? It’s easy to forget, after back-to-back World Series wins, that once upon a time, Dodgers playoff disappointments were an annual tradition. Suggesting that the vagaries of short series are the greatest impediment to a Los Angeles three-peat won’t exactly mollify those rooting against the Dodgers, but considering the overwhelming talent gap between them and the 29 other teams, it’s the most accurate answer. Injuries could waylay them, sure, and across-the-board regression is highly unlikely but at least plausible, yes. Ultimately, though, the best chance for a Dodgers exit before hoisting the commissioner’s trophy is the combination of a hot opponent and a bad week. — Jeff Passan
Philadelphia hasn’t been back to the World Series since it lost to Houston in 2022. How can the Phillies put it all together this year to take down L.A.? The Phillies have won 90 or more games in each of the past three seasons, so getting to October, where anything can happen in a short series, is hardly the problem. These Phillies maintain a top rotation and enjoy perhaps their best bullpen in this five-year run. Bryce Harper is still here. So is Kyle Schwarber. Adolis Garcia is now here, too. The Phillies might not add to their regular-season win total for the eighth consecutive full season, but they should be in October and are certainly capable of topping any team once there. With all this talent, perhaps they also get a bit of luck. — Eric Karabell
World Series champion
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (14 votes)
Who else received votes? Seattle Mariners (6), Boston Red Sox (3), Detroit Tigers (2), New York Yankees (2), Philadelphia Phillies (1), New York Mets (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
We’re predicting the Dodgers to become the first team to three-peat as World Series champions since the Yankees won three in a row in 1998-2000. Set the scene for how L.A. does it. It’s definitely too easy to pick the Dodgers to win their third straight World Series, but here’s a twist: It’s going to be a slog. The lineup is deep and foreboding, the addition of Tucker is almost unfair, and Diaz is a luxury upgrade at the back end of the bullpen. But the starting pitching is another story. They have 2¾ proven front-line starters, with Ohtani the fraction, albeit a very good one. Roki Sasaki, promised a spot in the rotation, is rapidly regressing. Blake Snell won’t be back until at least May. So here’s a trade-deadline prediction within a World Series prediction: Tarik Skubal, anyone? — Tim Keown
You are one of six voters to have the Mariners dashing the hopes of a Dodgers three-peat by winning the World Series. How does Seattle take home its first title in franchise history? The Blue Jays demonstrated last year that the Dodgers could be pushed to the brink in a postseason series, and the Mariners have the talent and the depth — Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, Josh Naylor and Andres Munoz, to name a few — to make that happen. And in Kade Anderson and Colt Emerson, they’ve got a couple of up-and-coming star prospects who could augment their chances to win the AL West and then make a deep push into the postseason. As we saw last summer, Seattle has the prospect and resources, as well as the ownership, to make aggressive midseason trades to fill whatever needs develop. — Buster Olney
AL MVP
Our pick: Aaron Judge (11 votes)
Who else received votes? Bobby Witt Jr. (10), Roman Anthony (3), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3), Cal Raleigh (1), Junior Caminero (1), Julio Rodriguez (1)
Make the MVP case for Judge over Witt: Judge has slashed .311/.439/.677 (209 OPS+) across the past four seasons, a batting line we have not witnessed since Barry Bonds did it from 2001 to 2004. And as MVP voters modernize their methods, Judge’s ability to accumulate WAR (10.8 in 2022, 10.8 in 2024, 9.7 in 2025) puts him head and shoulders above his AL peers. A preseason nod to anybody else is merely a contrarian dart throw that might hit the bull’s-eye because, well, baseball. — Hembekides
Make the MVP case for Witt over Judge: Witt could have won the 2024 AL MVP award — if not for Judge — and finished in fourth place last season. With 16.5 bWAR over the past two seasons and entering his age-26 season, it is hardly a stretch to expect Witt to earn this award at some point. Judge is awesome, of course, and hardly slowing down, but Witt — if he can win another batting title (like 2024), go 30/30 and lead the seemingly improved Royals to winning the certainly winnable AL Central — can end Judge’s MVP streak. — Karabell
AL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Kevin McGonigle (12 votes)
Who else received votes? Munetaka Murakami (5), Carter Jensen (4), Kazuma Okamoto (4), Trey Yesavage (2), Samuel Basallo (2), Tatsuya Imai (1)
So many different players received votes for Rookie of the Year — but McGonigle was the favorite. Why is he your pick? McGonigle offers a rare combination of All-Star-level upside with an incredible feel for the game and polish at age 21. Griffin, who received ROY votes in the NL, has that tantalizing supernova upside, but he also has a few paths where he could struggle in the big leagues right now, which might be part of the reason he didn’t crack the Pirates’ Opening Day roster. McGonigle will at least keep his head above water because of his combination of approach, bat-to-ball skills and in-game feel for punishing a mistake, as well as his feel for the game despite also not playing above Double-A, like Griffin. Staying up and finding success is necessary to win ROY and I’m confident McGonigle will do that, with a shot for a star turn. — McDaniel
AL Cy Young
Our pick: Tarik Skubal (14 votes)
Who else received votes? Garrett Crochet (11), Hunter Brown (3), Framber Valdez (1), Max Fried (1)
You were in the narrow majority in choosing Skubal to win his third consecutive Cy Young Award. What makes him so dominant? When having a conversation with Skubal, what stands out is how big he is; scouts describe him as a physical pitcher, and they aren’t kidding — at almost 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, he’s shaped like an upright cinder block. He throws hard, and as one evaluator noted during the offseason, even if hitters know he’s going to throw his fastball, they still struggle to square it up. And the excellence of his changeup, which might be the game’s best, makes the fastball even better. Skubal has $400 million on the line this year, with his impending free agency. — Olney
Crochet was right there with Skubal in the voting. Why do you think the Red Sox ace will nab the honor? Let’s start with this: Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson are the only two pitchers to win three consecutive Cy Young Awards, a feat Skubal is attempting to replicate. There is no doubt Skubal is one of the very best pitchers in recent history, but history suggests sustaining that level of excellence is difficult for even the best. And Crochet happens to also be one of the best in the game right now. The left-hander led the AL in innings pitched and the majors in strikeouts in 2025 while going 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA in what was his first full-tilt season as a starter in the big leagues. He’s in his prime entering his age-27 season. The Red Sox should contend for the AL East title. If it’s not going to be Skubal for the third straight year, Crochet is next in line. — Castillo
NL MVP
Our pick: Shohei Ohtani (21 votes)
Who else received votes? Juan Soto (6), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2), Bryce Harper (1)
Ohtani would tie the record for most consecutive MVP awards — four, held by Barry Bonds — with another MVP win this season. Can anyone stop him from making more history? With Ohtani gearing up for a full season of pitching, it might be impossible, but let’s throw out three players who could challenge him — two of which were MVP picks by some of our voters. Acuña had an 8.4-WAR season when he won his MVP award in 2023. If he does that, he’ll be in the vicinity of Ohtani (who had 7.8 WAR last year). Soto had a career high 7.9 WAR with the Yankees in 2024. If he’s the best hitter in the league, he’ll have a shot. And how about Paul Skenes? If he can get some run support and lead the Pirates to the playoffs, you never know. — Schoenfield
A non-Ohtani MVP vote! You went with Soto. Explain your reasoning. Soto is a generational player who happens to be in a league with Mr. Singularity, Ohtani. Yet Ohtani’s one Achilles’ heel has been to stay healthy as a pitcher. He is driven to do it all and has achieved it all in eye-popping fashion. But hitting and pitching all season just comes with health risks — and if Ohtani sits out any significant time, or if his numbers are not quite Hall of Fame-caliber (to keep up with what they have been when he has not pitched), Soto can close the gap. He showed us last year that he is a 40-40 talent and is a ground ball rate blip away from hitting .360. — Doug Glanville
NL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Nolan McLean (11 votes)
Who else received votes? JJ Wetherholt (7), Konnor Griffin (6), Sal Stewart (4), Bubba Chandler (1), Justin Crawford (1)
Why do you think McLean is our voters’ favorite to win? Because unlike with Wetherholt or Griffin or any of another half-dozen options — the NL rookie class this year is absolutely loaded — we’ve seen McLean in the big leagues. And what he showed was very, very good. The 2.06 ERA over eight starts last fall. The World Baseball Classic rotation nod. Minor league numbers can be misleading, and pitch data doesn’t always give the full picture of a starter’s ability to execute or carry his stuff deep into a game. McLean already has shown, unequivocally, that he’s an impact big league pitcher. Sometimes the safest choice is also the best. — Passan
NL Cy Young
Our pick: Paul Skenes (23 votes)
Who else received votes? Cristopher Sanchez (4), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3)
We’re predicting a third consecutive award season for Skenes, following his Rookie of the Year Award in 2024 and Cy Young in 2025. Does he face any challenges for a second Cy Young? Gosh, an anti-Skenes argument? It’s nitpicky, but if picking nits I must, it’d be based on one of three things:
The Pirates’ offense doesn’t take a step forward and the bullpen disappoints, hurting his run support and/or letting more of his inherited runners score.
His WBC work coming back to haunt him, as there have been cases of pitching participants suffering some real misfortunes in the seasons that followed it.
Unexpected injury, though the three pitchers during the expansion era who managed at least as many as Skenes’ 13.5 WAR in their first two full big league seasons (Dick Radatz, Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden) were similarly excellent in year No. 3. But there have been cases of sharp downturns or major injuries by year No. 3 among career hot starters (at least 5.9+ rookie year WAR) — Mark Fidrych, Britt Burns, Jose Fernandez, Michael Soroka.
But I don’t see any of these factors being an issue, hence my being on board with back-to-back Skenes Cys. — Cockcroft
Not many voters picked against Skenes — but you did. Why is Sanchez your pick? It’s already so obvious that, assuming he stays relatively healthy, Skenes will be the predominant pitcher of this era. But that doesn’t mean he’ll win every Cy Young. Clayton Kershaw compiled 59.3 FanGraphs WAR from 2010 to 2019 and was the best pitcher of the decade. But he won three Cy Youngs in that 10-year stretch because every once in a while an R.A. Dickey or a Jake Arrieta or, most notably, a Max Scherzer would come along and, at least for one year, outpitch Kershaw.
I think Sanchez will be that guy for Skenes this year, on the heels of finishing second to the Pirates’ ace in Cy Young voting and fresh off signing a six-year, $107 million extension with the Phillies. Sanchez has made monumental leaps each of the past four years, leading up to a 2025 season in which he went 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 202 innings. He’ll make one more leap this year, in his age-29 season, on a Phillies team striving to hold on to what remains of their championship window. — Gonzalez
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