MLB opening week has arrived, baseball fans!
After a chaotic offseason, there is one certainty as the new season begins: Everyone else is once again chasing the two-time reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers at the top of our initial rankings.
Whether your team has hopes of dethroning L.A. or is looking to become the season’s biggest surprise, we’ve got everything you need for Opening Day.
We asked our MLB experts to rank every team from 1 to 30 in our first Power Rankings of the new season, and ESPN baseball writers Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield teamed up to provide a breakdown of what to expect this season, along with Doolittle’s win-loss projections and playoff odds for all 30 teams.
Jump to team:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
Tier 1: The reigning champs stand alone
Projected record: 102-60 | (Doolittle’s odds: 98% playoff | 27.6% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Their pursuit of a three-peat and what it means for the future of MLB.
The Dodgers could become the first team to win back-to-back-to-back World Series titles since the Yankees completed the feat in 2000. They’ll begin the chase with the highest projected payroll in the majors by more than $30 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, after signing the best position player (Kyle Tucker) and reliever (Edwin Diaz) on the free agent market.
Their extravagant spending, coupled with the success, has generated widespread calls for a salary cap, which MLB will pursue when the CBA expires on Dec. 1 and it will almost certainly lead to a lockout. That inevitably, and the possibility of missing games if not the entire 2027, looms large, and Los Angeles is the focal point. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Shohei Ohtani, NL Cy Young. Yes, of course Ohtani is also the NL MVP favorite. You don’t need us to tell you that. But when Ohtani sets his mind to do a thing, he tends to do the thing. And, apparently, he has set his mind to winning a Cy Young, so we should plan accordingly. It is almost sinful to ponder what numbers an Ohtani MVP-level bat and Cy Young-level arm would produce in the same season. Really though, it’s about the only thing left he hasn’t done. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: After winning 100 games in 2019, 2021, 2022 (finishing with 111 wins, second most in NL history) and 2023 — and they would have cruised past 100 wins in 2020 — the Dodgers more or less coasted through the past two regular seasons, winning 98 games in 2024 and just 93 in 2025. With back-to-back titles on their ledger, maybe the Dodgers need a new challenge for 2026: such as crushing the regular season. With a healthier rotation, that can happen. Let’s go with 110 wins. –– Schoenfield
How they can rule the sport (for a third straight year): Only two things can keep the Dodgers from domination: apathy and injury. The Dodgers have tended to treat the regular season as a trial period for October, prompting them to rest players often and keep pitchers on the injured list a little longer than they need to be. There’s a reason for that — their roster is older, and their pitchers often get hurt.
The Dodgers ran through 40 different pitchers in both 2024 and 2025. Better injury luck on that side of the roster could prompt them to challenge for the wins record. They’re the two-time defending champs, and with Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz, they’ve addressed their only remaining holes with two of the best players in the sport. It’s one of the greatest rosters ever assembled. — Gonzalez
Tier 2: Biggest threats to L.A.’s throne
Projected record: 90-72 | (Doolittle’s odds: 72% playoff | 7.4% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The Mariners’ continued quest to finally reach the World Series.
Seattle was one win from winning the first AL pennant last season — and this year’s team could be even better. The Mariners lost Jorge Polanco in free agency but acquired All-Star utility man Brendan Donovan and will have first baseman Josh Naylor, a 2025 trade deadline acquisition, for the entire season after re-signing him. In the bullpen, after relying heavily on left-hander Gabe Speier last season, Seattle added left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer for another sturdy option. The rotation, after regressing in 2025, could improve. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez are superstars. The pieces are there to rebound from the October disappointment and break through. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Julio Rodriguez, AL MVP. Rodriguez enjoyed his best season a year ago, in part because he got into 160 games, but it still feels like he hasn’t quite put it all together. As he enters his age-25 season, Rodriguez is just a modicum of improved plate discipline away from really hitting the stratosphere. We’re talking 7-8 bWAR, 35 homers, 35 steals and a nightly highlight reel in center field. This has a chance to be a really special season for the Mariners and if J-Rod is at the center of it, it would hardly be a surprise. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: We could predict something silly here such as Cal Raleigh hitting 60 home runs or Josh Naylor stealing 30 bases or the Mariners reaching Game 7 of the American League Championship Series and leading that game in the seventh inning, but that kind of stuff never happens. Let’s go with this: Rodriguez avoids his usual slow start and hits .290/.341/.560, which matches his second-half totals from 2025. He hits 40 home runs, reaches 8 WAR and finishes third in the MVP voting. — Schoenfield
How they can join L.A. in the top tier: Over the last two months of the regular season, after acquiring Naylor and Eugenio Suarez via trade, the Mariners boasted MLB’s sixth-highest OPS and scored the fifth-most runs per game. Mariners fans of this era know they can count on their team to pitch well. The question is often whether it will hit enough. Bringing Naylor back and trading for Brendan Donovan will go a long way toward being a more consistent offensive team. Most important, though, will be Rodriguez coming out of the gate hot — and doing much better than his career first-half slash line of .260/.319/.418. Perhaps playing in the World Baseball Classic will help. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 89-73 | (Doolittle’s odds: 70% playoff | 7.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Gerrit Cole’s return.
On Opening Day, the Yankees will look nearly identical to the 94-win team that was bounced in the American League Division Series. Cole, however, could raise the group’s ceiling when he returns from Tommy John surgery.
The 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner is expected to rejoin the club in June. It’s unlikely he’ll immediately regain his ace-level form coming off the major procedure at 35 years old, but Cole has looked dynamite in spring training and possesses the talent, intelligence and work ethic to fare better than other pitchers who have initially struggled to rebound from the surgery. If he can return to front-of-the-rotation status alongside Max Fried, the Yankees will have one of the very best rotations in the majors and one built for a deep October run. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Aaron Judge, AL MVP. After the last two seasons, how could it be anything but this? Judge put up 9.7 bWAR in winning his third MVP award last season despite being regulated to DH duty in 56 games because of his elbow injury. As we saw in the WBC, that elbow now looks just fine. If Judge wins again, he would join Barry Bonds and Shohei Ohtani as the only players with four MVP trophies. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The 2019 Twins and 2023 Braves are the only teams with five players who hit 30 home runs. The Yankees will match that total with Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice, Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger. After hitting 274 home runs in 2025, the Yankees once again lead the majors, blasting 290 home runs — although they fall short of the MLB record of 307 shared by those Twins and Braves teams (and the club record of 306 set in 2019). — Schoenfield
How they can join L.A. in the top tier: We can say this confidently about the Yankees: They’re going to hit a bunch of home runs, they’re going to pitch and, at times, they’re going to make us shake our heads with defensive and baserunning gaffes.
What could really elevate them, though, is production from the left side of the infield. Last year, their shortstops and third basemen combined for a .664 OPS, sixth-lowest in the majors. So whether it’s Anthony Volpe, Ryan McMahon, Jose Caballero or Amed Rosario, somebody there has to step up. If so, the Yankees will be as deep and talented and balanced as anybody. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 88-74 | (Doolittle’s odds: 66% playoff | 6.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Can the Blue Jays exceed expectations again?
A year ago, the Blue Jays seemed like an organization without direction after a strange offseason. The franchise’s seemingly failed contract negotiations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grabbed the headlines. Their window with Guerrero and Bo Bichette as the core appeared to be closing. So much for that. The Blue Jays were a great story in 2025, winning their first AL pennant in 32 years and coming within one out of toppling the mighty Dodgers in the World Series.
Now expectations are high after another eventful offseason. The Blue Jays signed starters Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, reliever Tyler Rogers, and third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, and brought back Max Scherzer — but failed to land Kyle Tucker and watched Bo Bichette leave for the Mets. Shane Bieber (forearm) could miss significant time after opting into the final year of his contract. Anthony Santander (shoulder) is expected to miss most of the season after a disastrous first year in Toronto. The AL East is the best division in baseball. Defending their crown will be a tall task. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Kazuma Okamoto, AL Rookie of the Year. It’s strange to think of a 29-year-old established star from the world’s second-best baseball league as a rookie, but Okamoto will carry that classification. As the every-day third baseman for the contending Blue Jays, Okamoto will be in the conversation if he meets his projections.
Speaking of players who don’t seem like a rookie, if Trey Yesavage can overcome his early shoulder impingement, he could emerge as Okamoto chief competitor. The guy already has 17 World Series strikeouts under his belt. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: What can Guerrero do for an encore after a blistering postseason when he hit .397 with eight home runs in 18 games? How about avoiding some of the month-to-month inconsistency of last season and winning the AL batting title with a .335 average. He would join John Olerud as the only Jays hitter to win a title and become just the fourth Jays player to hit .330 (joining Olerud, Carlos Delgado and Paul Molitor, who did it twice).
How they can join L.A. in the top tier: The season has yet to begin, and the Blue Jays’ rotation has already been ravaged by injury. Bowden Francis is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Shane Bieber has forearm fatigue. Jose Berrios is dealing with a stress fracture in his elbow. Yesavage, a breakout star last October, has a shoulder impingement. The Blue Jays were an offensive juggernaut throughout last year’s postseason and should be again, even without Bichette. But they can’t keep up in the sport’s best division if two of Yesavage, Bieber and Berrios don’t regain their health to become regular contributors. Just as important: A bounce-back year from closer Jeff Hoffman. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 90-72 | (Doolittle’s odds: 74% playoff | 5.9% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Bryce Harper taking his frustration out on opposing pitchers.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski caused a stir in October when he questioned whether Harper will regain “elite” status or continue to just be “good.” The comment evidently irked Harper, who was still miffed when he reported to spring training. Harper’s .844 OPS was his lowest since his age-21 season in 2014, but it still ranked 22nd in baseball. In 2024, his .898 OPS ranked 10th. He still thrives in big moments as he reminded the world with his game-tying home run against Venezuela in the WBC final. The Phillies need Harper at his best, and an angry Harper could be a problem for opponents. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Cristopher Sanchez, NL Cy Young. Even though Paul Skenes was a unanimous winner for last year’s NL Cy Young, Sanchez had a very strong case for the award. He was as skillful as any pitcher in baseball, routinely able to pair dominance with the kind of efficiency that allowed him to get deep into games. Sanchez has gotten better every year as a big leaguer. Improving on his 2025 might be a tall order, but if he merely matches that breakout, he’ll be in the mix. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Cristopher Sanchez had a huge season in 2025, finishing second in the Cy Young voting and even finishing neck and neck with Paul Skenes in WAR (Sanchez led in bWAR, 8.0 to 7.7 while Skenes barely led in fWAR, 6.5 to 6.4). Sanchez will be great again — but fellow lefty Jesus Luzardo will be even better. Luzardo had the higher strikeout rate last year and will avoid last year’s two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs and ballooned his ERA. He finishes third in the Cy Young voting — one spot ahead of Sanchez. –– Schoenfield
How they can join L.A. in the top tier: For the Phillies, it’s all going to come down to one thing: Will their offense show up in October? Over the last two years, the Phillies’ offense has combined to slash just .199/.297/.331 — and they were eliminated in the division series each time. Even though it’s a small sample size, the urgency gets turned up significantly with each passing autumn. The core group of this Phillies era — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler — are now well into their 30s. They’ve yet to secure a championship, and every year it will become more unlikely. Assuming they stay relatively healthy, the Phillies will surge through another regular season. What happens after that is all that matters. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 92-70 | (Doolittle’s odds: 78% playoff | 7.7% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Whether David Stearns made the right moves.
The Mets’ president of baseball operations overhauled the roster over the winter. Not all was by choice, but he made clear he didn’t want to run back the same team, and the four longest-tenured players in the organization through last season are now gone.
The starting rotation should be better with Freddy Peralta onboard and Nolan McLean around from the start of the year. Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto remain the lineup’s linchpins with newcomers Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco hitting behind them. Devin Williams replaces Edwin Díaz as closer. If the Mets rebound from their disastrous 2025 campaign, Stearns will receive plenty of love. If they don’t, New York will let him hear it. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Nolan McLean, NL Rookie of the Year. McLean will almost certainly be one of those rare players to earn Rookie of the Year votes more than once. His rookie status remains intact despite all that he has done as a big leaguer: namely eight strong starts toward the end of last season that almost helped save the Mets’ flagging season. This spring, it was McLean to whom Mark DeRosa turned to take the ball against Venezuela in the WBC final. The only thing left is to start Game 1 of a playoff series for the Mets. It might well happen this season. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Remember Francisco Alvarez? He was one of the game’s top prospects when he reached the majors as a 20-year-old in 2022, then he hit .209 as a rookie in 2023 and battled injuries the past two seasons. But as the Mets folded in the second half last year, Alvarez was quietly putting it together, hitting .276/.360/.561.
Still just 24, he has his breakout year: He hits 30 home runs, makes the All-Star team and is the best offensive catcher in the NL. –– Schoenfield
How they can join L.A. in the top tier: Even as the Mets slid over the last two months in 2025, going 21-32 to shockingly miss the playoffs, their offense led the majors in OPS. It was their pitching — 4.96 ERA, sixth highest in the majors during that stretch — that was the real problem. Pitching and defense will define this Mets season. A rotation headlined by Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean should improve the former, and the additions of Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr. should help the latter. The bullpen, though, will be interesting. The Mets need Devin Williams to tap into the dominance he displayed in Milwaukee, and for Luke Weaver to lean closer to the guy from 2024 than 2025. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 89-73 | (Doolittle’s odds: 68% playoff | 4.8% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s ceiling.
PCA arrived in the majors as one of baseball’s best center fielders, but with questions about his ceiling at the plate. In his first extended run in 2024, he posted an 86 wRC+ — not ideal, but good enough for a player with his elite defense. Then he erupted the first half of last season, hitting 25 home runs with an .847 OPS and making the NL All-Star team.
For three months he was one of the very best players in baseball. But his production plummeted in the second half when slashed .216/.262/.372 with six home runs over the Cubs’ final 62 games. Overall, Crow-Armstrong finished with 155 strikeouts to just 29 walks. He still recorded a 5.4 fWAR season, but he’s searching for improved consistency in 2026. If he can replicate his first half over a full season — or just come close — he’s an MVP candidate. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Craig Counsell, NL Manager of the Year. Counsell has now finished in the top four of NL Manager of the Year balloting six times without winning the award — all he has gotten for his trouble is a high-profile job and a record-setting contract. Is it possible at this point that Counsell could earn support because of a career recognition factor? The prerequisite is for the Cubs to have another strong season, of course. But doesn’t it seem like Counsell has to win this award at some point? — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: This is a little surprising given Wrigley Field has historically been a great home run park, but only nine Cubs players have hit 40 home runs in a season (for a total of 19 times, including seven from Sammy Sosa and five from Ernie Banks). The only first baseman to do it was Derrek Lee with 46 in 2005. Michael Busch joins the club with 41 home runs and has the first 150 OPS+ by a Cubs hitter since Anthony Rizzo in 2014. –– Schoenfield
How they can join L.A. in the top tier: The Cubs seemed totally fine with letting Shota Imanaga leave via free agency — and then he accepted the qualifying offer to return for another season. They then traded for Edward Cabrera, who did not live up to his lofty expectations in Miami.
The rotation will be a question mark heading into the season, but there’s upside. It begins, of course, with Cade Horton, the 24-year-old right-hander who finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting last year. But Cabrera has proven to at least be a capable mid-rotation starter, Imanaga will be just fine if he can limit the home run ball, Matthew Boyd was an All-Star last year, and Jameson Taillon — 11 wins and a 3.68 ERA in 129⅔ innings — was an asset. This rotation should still be good. To get to L.A.’s level, though, it needs to be better than that. — Gonzalez
Tier 3: Should-be contenders
Projected record: 89-73 | (Doolittle’s odds: 70% playoff | 6.2% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Tarik Skubal’s impending free agency.
It was the talk all offseason, and it will continue to be all summer — whether the Tigers meet expectations or find themselves facing a difficult trade deadline decision if they’re out of postseason contention.
The Tigers never shut down Skubal trade rumors over the winter, but they spent money on the pitching staff to make a run in 2026. Skubal isn’t expected to sign an extension. If he has another strong, healthy season, the reigning two-time AL Cy Young Award winner likely will receive the richest contract for a pitcher ever next winter. Tigers fans should enjoy him while they have him. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Tarik Skubal, AL Cy Young. This is pretty obvious — Skubal in a platform season — but he’s the favorite to win this honor for a third straight year. Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux won four straight Cy Young awards, and Skubal would join them as the only pitchers to win at least three in a row. If Skubal falters, first-year shortstop Kevin McGonigle is more than capable of injecting himself into the AL Rookie of the Year race. –– Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: After an impressive spring training, McGonigle wins the Opening Day shortstop job and posts an .825 OPS and a 5.0 WAR while winning AL Rookie of the Year. It would be just the fourth five-win season by a rookie position player in franchise history, matching Donie Bush (1909), Dale Alexander (1929) and Austin Jackson (2010). –– Schoenfield
How they can be an October threat: They need to hit. That means Spencer Torkelson and Javier Baez need to be productive. It means Riley Greene needs to continue to ascend (and cut down on strikeouts). It means Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling need to get back to the production they displayed in 2024. And it means, most notably, that 21-year-old shortstop Kevin McGonigle needs to live up to the hype and challenge for the AL Rookie of the Year Award. The Tigers have the pitching to win a perpetually diluted AL Central, but to fully capitalize on what might be Skubal’s last year in Detroit, they need their offense to be a strength. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 87-75 | (Doolittle’s odds: 60% playoff | 4.9% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Roman Anthony’s meteoric ascension to All-Star status.
Anthony starred in the World Baseball Classic, reminding everyone of his unique talent at just 21 years old. His go-ahead home run off Gregory Soto in the semifinals against the Dominican Republic was not just impressive because of the game’s stakes, but because Anthony, a left-handed hitter, hit it off a hard-throwing left-hander.
The outfielder was excellent in his first taste of the big leagues, batting .292 with eight home runs and a 140 OPS+, before a September oblique strain sidelined him for the rest of the season. The Red Sox offense sputtered without him. He is the most important player on the team this season. If he can stay healthy, the Red Sox will be dangerous — and he will make his first All-Star Game appearance two months after his 22nd birthday. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Garrett Crochet, AL Cy Young. Asking Crochet to improve on his monster 2025 season is a lot, but perhaps he doesn’t have to. After finishing a competitive second to Tarik Skubal in the Cy Young balloting, maybe Crochet just needs to keep doing what he has been doing. Last season, he went 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA, 255 strikeouts and 6.3 bWAR, posting a Cy Young-worthy season. If he approaches those numbers again, it’ll be up to Skubal, and everyone else, to match him. Skubal is a star, but we’re talking about a very high bar. –– Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The last time the Red Sox had the lowest rotation ERA in the American League was 2002, during the peak Pedro Martinez days, when Derek Lowe also had a career year with 21 wins and a 2.58 ERA. With Crochet leading a new-look rotation that includes Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, the Red Sox post the top rotation ERA in the AL for the first time in 24 years. –– Schoenfield
How they can be an October threat: The Red Sox watched third baseman Alex Bregman leave for the Chicago Cubs via free agency and could not secure the services of second baseman Ketel Marte, who was being offered by the Arizona Diamondbacks before he was pulled off the trade market. Now, the production of their infield will be the Red Sox’s biggest question. New first baseman Willson Contreras is an important addition to the middle of the lineup, but veteran shortstop Trevor Story and new third baseman Caleb Durbin don’t project to be much more than league-average hitters. The one who can really change things for this group, of course, is former No. 4 pick Marcelo Mayer. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 90-72 | (Doolittle’s odds: 72% playoff | 5.5% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Ronald Acuna Jr.’s return to MVP status.
Buried in the Braves’ nightmare 2025 season was Acuña bouncing back from another major injury. The right fielder slashed .290/.417/.518 with 21 home runs and compiled 3.5 fWAR in just 95 games. He was dynamic again for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, fueling a comeback win over Italy in the quarterfinals with a two-out infield single and clubbing a leadoff home run in the quarterfinals against Japan. He’s a five-tool talent with an MVP on his résumé and is still in his prime, entering his age-28 season. He won’t unseat a two-way Ohtani from his MVP perch if Ohtani stays healthy, but he could turn out to be the best of the rest. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Ronald Acuna Jr., NL MVP. Because of injuries and global pandemics, Acuna has logged only two full seasons during his eight-year career. In 2023, Acuna produced the kind of historic numbers he’s capable of when healthy. At 28, he remains in the prime of his career. It will take some time for Acuna to prove that he can stay on the field, but he has looked great this spring, in exhibitions and the WBC, so all signs seem to be a go. Acuna might be the one player in the NL capable of winning the MVP over Shohei Ohtani even if Ohtani has, for him, a typical season. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: After their historic offensive performance in 2023 — they were the first team in MLB history to slug .500 — the Braves ranked just eighth in the NL in runs in 2024 and seventh in 2025. With a healthy Acuna and a healthy Austin Riley, a better season from Michael Harris II, more offense at shortstop and more at-bats for Drake Baldwin, the Braves score 100 runs more than in 2025, putting them second in the NL. –– Schoenfield
How they can be an October threat: It often takes pitchers at least a year to return to form after elbow surgery, and if that’s the case, perhaps the Braves can expect Spencer Strider to go back to being one of the game’s most dominant forces in 2026. If he pairs with Chris Sale to form a devastating rotation duo, they’ll be title contenders once more. The Braves have the depth and the talent to rival anyone. After finishing fourth in Cy Young voting in 2023, rehabbing for almost all of 2024 and finishing 7-14 with a 4.45 ERA in 2025, Strider can put them over the top. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 83-79 | (Doolittle’s odds: 41% playoff | 1.5% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Jacob Misiorowski’s sophomore season.
Misiorowski was a captivating story during the Brewers’ 97-win campaign with his electric stuff and unassuming demeanor as a rookie. He was dominant at times thanks to a fastball that averaged 99.3 mph, and he allowed two earned runs over 12 postseason innings. But he encountered inconsistency in the second half and finished the regular season with a 4.36 ERA in 66 innings. Now, he’s not just a nice addition to the Brewers’ starting rotation; he’s crucial to their success after Milwaukee traded No. 1 starter Freddy Peralta (and Tobias Myers) to the Mets. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Pat Murphy, NL Manager of the Year. Yeah, this is boring because Murphy has won this award the past two years. But the Brewers line up almost exactly as they have during the past two years. They didn’t tear down the roster, though they parted ways with key contributors such as Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin. They didn’t splurge in free agency. And they will be predicted to be middling this season, so when the Brewers win 95 games, we’ll say, “Man, that Murph did it again.” (Logan Henderson would have been a good pick here for rookie honors, but his elbow issues probably mean he will be handled carefully and won’t have awards-level volume.) — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Jackson Chourio has flashed his potential stardom during his first two seasons in the majors, putting up 6.0 career WAR through his age-21 season. But he failed to show improvement at the plate in his sophomore season. Will he have a breakout in 2026? Let’s go with yes, as he hits .290 with 30 home runs, 5.0 WAR and makes his first All-Star appearance. – Schoenfield
How they can be an October threat: It’s really hard to contend in this era without hitting homers, and that continues to be the Brewers’ challenge. We know they’ll pitch well and play great defense, and that, along the way, a handful of their players will outperform expectations. But despite an underwhelming offseason, they need to find a little more slug. The Brewers ranked third in the majors in home run percentage in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, they finished 25th, 19th and 25th, respectively. Christian Yelich continuing what he did last year offensively will be vital; others taking another step forward will be just as crucial. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 86-76 | (Doolittle’s odds: 54% playoff | 3.5% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Will the starting rotation be good enough?
A year after losing Corbin Burnes in free agency and failing to adequately address his exit, the Orioles were more aggressive in bolstering the rotation this winter — but not as aggressive as they could’ve been. Baltimore didn’t land any of the top free agent starting pitchers. Instead, the O’s acquired right-hander Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays, signed veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt to a one-year deal and re-signed Zach Eflin to a one-year contract. The Orioles also expect a full season from right-hander Kyle Bradish, who will partner with left-hander Trevor Rogers atop the rotation.
It’s a potent group. Bradish was a star before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024. Rogers was dominant last season when healthy, recording a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts. Health is crucial. With a deep lineup, the Orioles can reclaim the division title if the rotation plays its part. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Adley Rutschman, AL Comeback Player of the Year. Typically, but not always, this award goes to an injury returnee, and that would make someone such as Gerrit Cole a prime candidate. But I like Rutschman for a couple of reasons.
First, his OPS+ has been in a steady downward tumble since his rookie season. But if you look under the hood — strike zone indicators, exit velocity, hard hit percentage, etc. — he comes off as one of 2025’s unluckiest hitters. If Rutschman’s luck realigns with his talent in 2026, he’d not only contend for this award, but he’d be emblematic of a team poised for a collective bounce back. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Five Orioles have led the American League in RBIs: Jim Gentile tied Roger Maris in 1961 (141); Brooks Robinson in 1964 (118); Frank Robinson in his 1966 Triple Crown season (122); Eddie Murray in the strike-shortened 1981 season (78); and Chris Davis in 2013 (138). Pete Alonso joins that list and, after having led the NL with 131 RBIs for the Mets in 2022, becomes the first player to top both leagues. –– Schoenfield
How they can be an October threat: Gunnar Henderson was really good last year — but not as good as he was the year before. Jackson Holliday, still just 22 years old, has superstar potential — but we have yet to see it. Samuel Basallo has the makings of a prodigious slugger, but he needs to prove it against major league pitching. The same can be said for Coby Mayo. The list goes on: As recently as 2023, Adley Rutchman was arguably the best catcher in baseball; Colton Cowser went from an adjusted OPS of 120 in 2024 to 83 in 2025. The Orioles are still brimming with young, exciting position player talent. And if it clicks, it could be a really special season in Baltimore. — Gonzalez
Tier 4: If everything breaks their way
Projected record: 84-78 | (Doolittle’s odds: 46% playoff | 2.1% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Yordan Alvarez’s bounce-back season.
Injuries submarined the 2025 Astros, and they still missed the postseason by only one game. Alvarez, one of the best hitters in the sport, played just 48 games because of hand and ankle injuries. If he can stay healthy, there is nothing to suggest he won’t rebound with a monster season.
From 2019 to 2024, Alvarez batted .298 with 164 home runs and a .973 OPS — and he was just as productive in the postseason. His health is crucial as Houston attempts to reestablish itself as a contender. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Hunter Brown, AL Cy Young. With a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts over 31 starts, Brown really came into his own last season, finishing third in Cy Young balloting. A dominant spring might portend that he is still on an upward trajectory. Four pitchers have won Cy Young honors for the Astros, and Brown is well-positioned to join that group sometime soon. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Despite everything that went wrong last year — injuries to the rotation and Alvarez — the Astros still finished just three games behind Seattle. The Astros bounce back to win the AL West as Alvarez hits 40 home runs for the first time in his career, and newcomer Tatsuya Imai bolsters the rotation with 14 wins and 200 strikeouts. –– Schoenfield
How they can contend: Production from Carlos Correa (31 years old), Josh Hader (32) and Jose Altuve (35) will be crucial to the Astros making a playoff run this year. But most important of all will be how the rotation shakes out beyond Hunter Brown. Tatsuya Imai will be adjusting to the majors from Japan. Cristian Javier (a combined 15 starts over the past two years) and Lance McCullers Jr. (103 innings from 2022 to 2025) have not proven capable of staying healthy. And though additions Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss should provide some stability, there’s a clear ceiling there. All told, it’s a suspect group. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 83-79 | (Doolittle’s odds: 39% playoff | 1.9% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Wyatt Langford taking another leap.
Langford made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster in 2024 to much fanfare, less than a year after getting drafted No. 4 and was productive, posting 3.9 bWAR in 134 games. The left fielder was better last year, finishing with 22 home runs, 22 steals and 5.6 WAR in 134 games. At just 24 with a five-tool skill set, there’s room for improvement in his third season. Spring training production can be fool’s gold, but Langford crushed pitching in the Cactus League and appears poised for an All-Star season. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Skip Schumaker, AL Manager of the Year. The Rangers are a sleeper team as the season begins. Texas put up the run differential of a 90-win team despite finishing 81-81 last season. The Rangers retooled their offensive attack, beefed up their rotation and brought in Schumaker to fill the considerable shoes of Bruce Bochy. If the Rangers challenge for an AL West title, Schumaker will get a lot of credit. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The last time the Rangers had two pitchers make the All-Star team was 2013, when starter Yu Darvish and closer Joe Nathan earned the honor. This year, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom are selected, and they finish with sub-3.00 ERAs while pitching 170-plus innings, keeping the Rangers in the AL West race into the final week of the regular season. — Schoenfield
How they can contend: We’ve been asking this question since they won it all in 2023, and we’ll ask it again: Are they going to hit? The Rangers retooled their lineup over the offseason, cutting ties with three staples of that championship offense: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. They have since added Brandon Nimmo, Danny Jansen and Andrew McCutchen. But the success of their offense will hinge on Joc Pederson, Josh Jung and Jake Burger being more productive, Corey Seager staying healthy, and Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter continuing to ascend. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 83-79 | (Doolittle’s odds: 40% playoff | 1.5% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Jac Caglianone’s development.
Bobby Witt Jr. is already a superstar. Maikel Garcia just had his breakout season. Vinnie Pasquantino has established himself as a capable slugger. And yet, the Royals ranked 26th in runs scored in 2025. The Royals need more offense. The front office made minor moves over the offseason, acquiring Lane Thomas, Isaac Collins and Starling Marte, but the Royals didn’t add an impact hitter. Caglianone could qualify as one.
After persistent calls for his promotion, Caglianone batted just .157 with a 49 OPS+ in 62 games last season, but he was just 22, learning right field and playing his first full professional season. Few people can match his power potential. After a strong showing for Italy in the WBC, Caglianone could push Kansas City to another level. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Bobby Witt Jr., AL MVP. It’s hard to say whether the Royals’ decision to pull in the walls at Kauffman Stadium will prove to be a net positive for them. But it will pretty clearly be a positive for Witt’s home run total. Witt is capable of producing something like a 40-40 season while winning a batting title and a Gold Glove for his eye-popping work at shortstop. If Witt does all of that, he might set a standard not even Aaron Judge can match. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Let’s go all-in on a monster season from Witt. He posts 9.5 WAR, breaking the club mark of 9.4 for position players that he shares with George Brett. He belts 92 extra-base hits, which would be the most for a shortstop. He wins another Gold Glove. The question: Will that be enough to swipe the AL MVP Award from Aaron Judge? Yes, it will. — Schoenfield
How they can contend: Royals outfielders combined for just 37 homers last season, tied for the second-lowest total in the major leagues, and it significantly brought down Kansas City’s offense. The Royals will get the vast majority of their offense from an infield headlined by Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino, but they need a lot more from their outfielders. Jac Caglianone breaking out would be huge, of course. But they also need steady production from three newcomers: Isaac Collins, Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 83-79 | (Doolittle’s odds: 37% playoff | 1.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The franchise’s impending sale and the possible ramifications.
The Seidler family, through the trust of the late owner Peter Seidler, put the Padres up for sale in November. So far, a few groups have emerged as potential buyers, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting that the franchise could fetch a record price of over $3 billion.
The decision to sell came after team payroll dropped from a record $257.2 million in 2023 to under $172 million in 2024 before rebounding to about $221 million in 2025. Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects a $277.4 million competitive balance tax payroll in 2026 — the sixth highest in the majors despite being one of the smallest markets in the majors.
The team became a perennial playoff contender at the start of the decade thanks to Seidler’s prolific spending, which came from a deep desire to win San Diego’s first major sports championship. Petco Park, in turn, has become one of the best atmospheres in baseball. The new ownership group will have big shoes to fill. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Fernando Tatis Jr., NL MVP. The best argument for Tatis to return as the “face of baseball” is that this is his age-27 campaign. After three straight seasons of very good play — a level most players would love to achieve — it’s time for Tatis to get back to .900 OPS mashing. If he does, his baserunning and Gold Glove defense will contribute to a monster WAR and, hence, a strong MVP campaign. Age 27 is when that has happened for many players in history. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The strength of the team is the bullpen, which led the majors with a 3.03 ERA in 2025 while ranking first in lowest batting average allowed and third in strikeout rate. Former closer Robert Suarez signed with the Braves, but the club has Mason Miller from the start of the season.
He’ll lead the pen to another MLB-best ERA while posting a sub-1.00 ERA with more than 100 strikeouts. Only one other reliever has posted a sub-1.00 ERA with 100 strikeouts: Blake Treinen with the A’s in 2018 (0.78 ERA, 100 strikeouts). — Schoenfield
How they can contend: The Padres have limited depth and limited money, and suddenly they’re very dependent on players needing bounce-back seasons. In the rotation, it includes Joe Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery to lead their rotation, but they also need someone from the group of German Marquez, Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning to really surprise. On offense, Nick Castellanos and Gavin Sheets need to be productive so that first base and designated hitter aren’t big weaknesses. The Padres are still loaded with stars, but their margin for error is razor-thin. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 83-79 | (Doolittle’s odds: 41% playoff | 1.3% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Tony Vitello’s first season as manager. Vitello is the first to make the leap from college to big league manager without prior professional coaching experience. Though Vitello enjoyed great success at Tennessee, including winning the 2024 College World Series, managing in the majors is a different beast. Hiring him was a curious decision by Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey, who has been unafraid to make bold moves. This one will be under the microscope all season. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Tony Vitello, NL Manager of the Year. Sure, you could go with Logan Webb as a Cy Young candidate here. Or if Bryce Eldridge can improve his contact ability while starting the season in the minors, he could mash his way into Rookie of the Year consideration. But no one knows what to expect from Vitello. His spiel so far is, at every turn, to say something like, “I didn’t even know what the winter meetings look like” — and it’s kind of endearing. But there has to be a reason Buster Posey made this out-of-the-box hire, right? Maybe Vitello is the new John McGraw. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: It’s not bold to predict that Logan Webb will lead the National League in innings pitched — he has done that three seasons in a row. But the last pitcher to lead his league four consecutive seasons was Greg Maddux, who did it five in a row from 1991 to 1995. Before Maddux’s run, Robin Roberts was the last to do it from 1951 to 1955. Let’s up the ante, though: Webb also gets more run support than he’s used to and leads the NL with 18 wins — the first Giants pitcher to top the circuit since John Burkett tied with Tom Glavine in 1993 with 22 wins. — Schoenfield
How they can contend: The Giants never really got involved with this offseason’s best free agent starting pitchers, a group headlined by Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease. Many believed that they needed to. Instead, the Giants opted for additions on low-cost deals, such as Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser. Those two really need to be productive this year. Just as important is that Ryan Walker, who had a 1.91 ERA in 2024 and a 4.11 ERA in 2025, bounces back to handle the ninth inning. The rotation has questions, but the bullpen is really suspect. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 78-84 | (Doolittle’s odds: 20% playoff | 0.4% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Is this the year Elly De La Cruz finally puts it all together?
De La Cruz, on any given day, can be the best player on the field. His raw talent is nearly unmatched. But the shortstop did not take the expected leap in Year 3 last season. Instead, he regressed slightly — home runs by three, stolen bases by 30, and slugging percentage by 31 points. He also graded out worse defensively, in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
The Reds snuck into the playoffs anyway, but their formula for winning the NL Central and contending for the World Series includes De La Cruz rising to MVP-level form. He hasn’t shown he’s capable yet, but he’s still just 24, and the tools are there. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Sal Stewart, NL Rookie of the Year. There’s just something about Stewart, whose charisma and grinder mentality will play well as he becomes one of the Reds’ most recognizable players. His 18-game debut last year featured five homers and ugly strike zone numbers, but he’s a much more complete hitter than that. As the Reds’ every-day first baseman, Stewart has a wide-open runway this season to fully assume Joey Votto’s mantle in Cincinnati. This year’s NL rookie class looks strong, but Stewart is more than capable of challenging for this award. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Cincinnati rotation ranked second in FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR in 2025 but will be without Hunter Greene until July after surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow.
That puts a little more pressure on Chase Burns in his first full season, but the No. 2 pick from the 2024 draft will live up to the hype with 150 innings and a sub-3.00 ERA while averaging more than 10 K’s per inning. – Schoenfield
How they can contend: Hunter Greene needs to come back healthy, and Chase Burns needs to take steps forward to give the Reds as formidable a rotation as they displayed in 2025. But this team really needs to hit better than it did last year, when it finished tied for 24th with 92 weighted runs created plus. And it should easily improve, actually. De La Cruz no longer being plagued by the quad issues that sapped his power in the second half will help immensely. A full season of Sal Stewart and the return of Eugenio Suarez will certainly be bonuses, too. But don’t forget about Matt McLain, who’s still young enough to tap back into the production we saw from him before left shoulder surgery in 2023. He’s crucial in the No. 2 spot of their lineup. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 81-81 | (Doolittle’s odds: 30% playoff | 0.7% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Will the pitching staff sink Arizona’s playoff chances again?
The Diamondbacks can score. Two years ago, they paced the majors in runs scored. Last year, they finished sixth despite dealing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline and having Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Pavin Smith and Gabriel Moreno land on the injured list at various points. And yet, the Diamondbacks have not reached the postseason since their surprise run to the World Series in 2023, largely because their pitching staff ranked 27th in ERA in 2024 and 23rd last season.
Arizona brought back right-handers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who was traded last summer to the Rangers, and signed Michael Soroka over the offseason to bolster the pitching staff. But Kelly will miss the start of the season because of a back injury, while Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and relievers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez remain out after Tommy John surgery. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Corbin Carroll, NL MVP. Thankfully, it looks like Carroll’s recovery from preseason hamate won’t spill into the 2026 campaign. He not only returned to game action in plenty of time to prepare for the regular season, but he also went back to stealing bases and producing elite exit velocities. Carroll has led the NL in triples three straight years, going from 10 to 14 to 17. We haven’t had a 20-triple season since Jimmy Rollins and Curtis Granderson did it in 2007. Carroll might end that drought in 2026. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Geraldo Perdomo proves his fourth-place finish in the 2025 NL MVP voting was no fluke. He hits .300, reaches 100 runs and 100 RBIs and steals 30 bases. The only shortstops since Honus Wagner to reach those four categories in the same season are Alex Rodriguez in 1998 and Bobby Witt Jr. in 2024. Perdomo makes it another top-five MVP result. – Schoenfield
How they can contend: The D-backs hope to hang around in the race long enough for some of their best players to return from injury and make an impact. Those returns aren’t guaranteed, and neither are those players recapturing their productive selves as quickly as possible — but that will be vital to the D-backs’ chances of returning to the postseason. The list includes ace pitcher Corbin Burnes (Tommy John surgery), outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (right knee surgery), setup man A.J. Puk (left elbow surgery) and closer Justin Martinez (Tommy John surgery). Arizona has enough to contend, but not without them. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 78-84 | (Doolittle’s odds: 19% playoff | 0.4% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The lineup around Jose Ramirez.
The future Hall of Famer reaffirmed his loyalty to Cleveland when he signed a seven-year, $175 million extension over the offseason. Though it’s the largest contract in franchise history, Ramírez left millions of dollars on the table again by forgoing free agency.
Will the Guardians reward him with enough help to become AL pennant contenders after scoring the third-fewest runs in the majors last season? Cleveland spent just $7.9 million in free agency this winter — the fourth-lowest total in the majors — and nearly all of it went to relievers.
Veteran Rhys Hoskins signed a minor league deal and is projected to make the team. Other than that, Cleveland will rely on a rebound season from Steven Kwan and younger players, including George Valera and Kyle Manzardo, taking the next step to increase offensive production. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Jose Ramirez, AL MVP. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Ramirez has compiled the most MVP award shares of any player in history who hasn’t won the award. He has six top-five finishes and two others in the top 10. You almost take for granted Ramirez’s greatness because he puts up a similar version of the same outstanding season year after year. What does he need to do to land on top? A 40/40 season would be a good start. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Predicting Jose Ramirez will produce another 30/30 season — that would be his fourth, and only Bobby and Barry Bonds have more with five apiece — isn’t bold, so let’s get more adventurous.
Parker Messick looked promising in his seven-start debut in 2025 and retained his rookie status for 2026. How about this trio of predictions: He leads the team with 15 wins, becomes the first left-handed Cleveland starter to make the All-Star team since Cliff Lee in 2008 and finishes third in the Rookie of the Year voting. –– Schoenfield
How they can contend: The Guardians ranked 20th in home runs last season, even though Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo combined to hit 57 of them. That’s because nobody else reached 15. That needs to change. The Guardians remain as good as anyone at developing pitchers, as evidenced by the dominance they displayed on the mound after trading Shane Bieber and losing Emmanuel Clase down the stretch last year. But they — similar to the Brewers in the National League — perpetually struggle to slug. Somebody else needs to become a reliable power source, whether it’s Rhys Hoskins, Chase DeLauter, Bo Naylor or someone else. — Gonzalez
Tier 5: We’re saying there’s a chance
Projected record: 79-83 | (Doolittle’s odds: 23% playoff | 0.7% WS)
Why the season hinges on Shane McClanahan: The Rays develop good pitchers better than just about anyone, but few in the world are as talented as McClanahan. The left-hander was one of the top pitchers in the sport from 2021 to 2023. He made back-to-back All-Star Games — starting the 2022 edition in Los Angeles — and finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2022.
He would give the Rays a bona fide ace if he can return to that level. It’s a tough ask for someone who hasn’t pitched in a major league game since Aug. 2, 2023, because of Tommy John surgery and a nerve issue in his left triceps. But McLanahan showed flashes in Grapefruit League play, including a seven-strikeout outing in 3⅔ hitless innings against the Pirates. Spring training is spring training, but he generated 10 whiffs, and his fastball averaged 94.8 mph that day. The Rays will take more of that. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Junior Caminero, AL MVP. With Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. around, it’s a tough field for junior circuit MVP hopefuls. As we saw last season with Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, a surprise prodigious home run total can inject a player into the conversation. The thing is, if Caminero — who clubbed 45 homers in his age-21 season — puts up a 60-homer season, would it be a surprise? –– Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Junior Caminero hit 45 home runs, the second most for a 21-year-old behind Eddie Mathews, who hit 47 in 1953. The age-22 record belongs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with 48 in 2021. Caminero won’t hit 50 — not this year anyway — but will match Guerrero’s record of 48 and return to the All-Star Game for the second straight year. –– Schoenfield
How they can be 2026’s biggest surprise: With Junior Caminero’s and Jonathan Aranda’s power, Chandler Simpson’s speed, and Yandy Diaz’s bat-to-ball skills, the Rays should be just fine offensively. If Carson Williams taps into his potential in his age-23 season, their lineup will be really good. And if Shane McClanahan bounces back, he’d join Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot to form a very formidable rotation trio. And if all that happens, the Rays could shock people in the hyper-competitive American League East. Basically, everybody’s picking them to finish last — and that’s just the way they like it. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 81-81 | (Doolittle’s odds: 32% playoff | 1.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Besides every Paul Skenes start? Konnor Griffin’s first taste of the big leagues.
The five-tool shortstop is the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball after slashing .333/.415/.527 with 21 home runs and 65 steals across three levels, with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel writing that he “is the best we’ve seen in a number of years.”
He’s just 19 with just one full pro season on his résumé, but, even after not making the Opening Day roster, he’ll join the Pirates, a club looking to compete after a relatively active offseason to bolster the offense, soon enough. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Paul Skenes, NL MVP. Yes, you are reading that right. Obviously, Skenes is the NL Cy Young favorite — so declaring that is not only too easy, it might be too limiting in describing what he can accomplish.
We haven’t had a pure pitcher as an MVP since Clayton Kershaw in 2014, but Skenes is that kind of pitcher — peak-level Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer. Heck, he’s probably better. The guy has a 1.96 ERA over his first 55 career starts. His 215 ERA+ is straight from Mount Olympus. Using a 50-start minimum, the all-time leaderboard for extant leagues, modern era, goes Skenes (215), then Kershaw and Pedro Martinez (154). Sure, the sample sizes are wildly different, but who’s to say Skenes won’t only increase his edge from here? MVP! — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Ahh, let’s do it: Skenes wins the Cy Young Award, Bubba Chandler and Griffin finish 1-2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting and the Pirates do what the Reds did a year ago, pulling out a wild card with 83 wins. –– Schoenfield
How they can be 2026’s biggest surprise: At this moment, the Pirates have elite pitching potential, but concerning offense. Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and, when he returns around June, Jared Jones could make for an epic rotation. But will the Pirates hit? Sure, Griffin could change things. But they need their more seasoned hitters to step up. That includes newcomers Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna and Brandon Lowe. It includes Bryan Reynolds, who’s coming off a down year. And, most of all, it includes Oneil Cruz, who’s still waiting to fully break through. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 79-83 | (Doolittle’s odds: 21% playoff | 0.5% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Can the Athletics’ explosive lineup fuel a postseason berth?
Few teams can match this team’s firepower. The A’s ranked 12th in runs in the majors last season — and that was with Nick Kurtz playing in just 117 games a year after going No. 4 in the 2024 draft. Kurtz enters 2026 after his historic rookie season and is surrounded by potent hitters. Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler are all back and healthy. Jeff McNeil, a former batting champion, was acquired to play second base.
They’ll score plenty of runs at Sutter Health Park, a Triple-A hitter’s haven. But will they prevent enough? The A’s were 27th in ERA last season. Luis Severino, signed to the richest contract in franchise history, openly criticized the conditions at Sutter Health Park and recorded a 6.01 ERA in his 15 starts there. The front office made minor moves to the staff in the offseason, and trading Mason Miller last summer certainly won’t help, but the pitching must improve to make noise. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Nick Kurtz, AL MVP. Kurtz’s Rookie of the Year season was one for the ages, and he did it all (35 homers, 1.002 OPS, 5.4 bWAR) in just 117 games. Now translate his season to 162 games: 7.4 bWAR, 50 homers, 119 RBIs, 125 runs. Those are MVP numbers, and that’s if his percentages remain the same. But Kurtz is only 23 — he can get better, starting with a better showing against southpaws. If that happens, it’s hard to put a ceiling on Kurtz’s numbers. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: After 2025’s stellar rookie class — Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Denzel Clarke, Max Muncy — what can the A’s do for an encore? How about this: Infielder Leo De Vries, acquired last summer in the Mason Miller trade, and left-hander Gage Jump, a second-round pick out of LSU in 2024, will both debut in the majors in the second half.
For De Vries, that would mean debuting as a teenager, the first to do that with the A’s since Todd Van Poppel in 1991. Gage has a chance to help a rotation that ranked 25th in ERA in 2025. –– Schoenfield
How they can be 2026’s biggest surprise: Sutter Health Park is a brutal place to pitch (just ask Severino). But the A’s will have to pitch much better if they hope to surprise in a deep American League. That means Severino needs to do much, much better than his 6.01 ERA at home, Jeffrey Springs needs to get back to missing bats — 29% strikeout rate from 2021 to 2024, 19.4% strikeout rate in 2025 — and Jump needs to, um, make the jump to the major leagues and have an impact. The A’s don’t need to be an elite pitching team to be a playoff hopeful. But they need to be at least competent on the mound. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 78-84 | (Doolittle’s odds: 19% playoff | 0.5% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The organization’s unclear plan.
The Twins dealt 10 players from their disappointing 26-man roster at the trade deadline last summer. Two weeks later, the Pohlad family announced it was pulling the franchise off the market and would instead seek new investors. The next step seemingly was trading the other established players who could fetch worthwhile returns over the offseason. But the Twins stood pat to compete in a winnable AL Central and kept starters Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez.
Then, on Jan. 30, president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey left the organization after nearly a decade. Then, López underwent Tommy John surgery, and Ryan suffered a back injury during spring training that kept him off Team USA. Ryan is expected to be ready for the start of the season. The Twins need him if they’re going to compete. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Joe Ryan, AL Cy Young. Ryan has put up consistent results during his career, even as he has expanded and diversified his arsenal of pitches. As he enters his age-30 season, he’s at a stage where he might be ready to really amp up the volume, and if he can get to 190 to 200 innings, he’s likely to earn some Cy Young support. Perhaps the bigger question is whether he’ll still be with the Twins by the time his candidacy is evaluated. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: In doing this through the years, we’ve found that predicting in-season trades is more difficult than expected, but this is BOLD predictions after all, and the Twins don’t look like contenders, so that makes Ryan one of the likeliest trade candidates. He’s still under team control through the 2027 season, but that only increases his trade value because he can affect two pennant races. How about Ryan to the Brewers at the trade deadline? — Schoenfield
How they can be 2026’s biggest surprise: The Twins drafted Royce Lewis in the first round in 2017, Trevor Larnach in the first round in 2018, Matt Wallner in the first round in 2019 and Brooks Lee in the first round in 2022. All of them, to varying degrees, are still waiting to make their imprint in the major leagues.
With the Twins flailing, the pressure off and opportunities vast, this is in some ways a fork-in-the-road year for all of them. And if you think it’s too late for some, consider how long it took Byron Buxton — a first-round pick in 2012 — to fully come into his own. — Gonzalez
Tier 6: Already playing for next year
Projected record: 72-90 | (Doolittle’s odds: 5% playoff | 0.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Miami’s rebuild progressing toward a postseason berth.
The Marlins, rather quietly, were a tough opponent last season. They finished with 79 wins and beat the Mets on the final day of the regular season to complete New York’s collapse. The next step is real postseason contention.
It won’t be easy in a loaded NL East; the Mets, Phillies and Braves are all expected to contend. But the Marlins have one of the strongest rotations in baseball — even after trading Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers — and a young position group with real talent. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Eury Perez, NL Cy Young. Perez has never thrown more than 95⅓ innings in a season at the big league level, so this is probably a reach, especially because he’s in a rotation with Sandy Alcantara, who has won the award. So consider this a vote for Perez’s stuff, which is very much Cy Young-caliber.
Last season was Perez’s ramp-up campaign after missing 2024 because of Tommy John surgery. This season, Perez should be on full blast, and if some of the stuff he has flashed this spring is any indication, it will be fun to watch. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Sandy Alcantara entered 2025 as a prime trade candidate, but then he got off to a horrendous start returning from Tommy John surgery, posting an 8.47 ERA through May, so the Marlins kept him. He pitched much better during the final three months, but even though the Marlins hold a reasonable $21 million club option for 2027, given the uncertainty of the labor situation, look for them to trade him … to the A’s. — Schoenfield
How their season can be a success: The Marlins continue to have nice young pitchers. The question continues to be whether they can develop hitters. So this year, it’s all about Jakob Marsee, Kyle Stowers, Agustin Ramirez, Connor Norby and Owen Caissie. They’ve all been acquired by president of baseball operations Peter Bendix in high-profile trades, involving Luis Arraez, Trevor Rogers, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Edward Cabrera. If they click, they can form a pretty good offensive foundation in Miami. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 70-92 | (Doolittle’s odds: 4% playoff | 0.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: JJ Wetherholt’s arrival.
Wetherhold made the Cardinals’ roster out of spring training and, barring injury, he’ll be a fixture in the lineup going forward.
The No. 7 pick of the 2024 draft, Wetherhold batted .306 with 17 home runs and 23 steals in 109 games across Double-A and Triple-A last season. The 23-year-old infielder is projected to play second base in St. Louis to create a middle-infield duo with Masyn Winn that the Cardinals hope will propel their rebuild. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: JJ Wetherholt, NL Rookie of the Year. There is a clear scenario in which the teetering Cardinals franchise generates a lot of enthusiasm for the seasons to come. That scenario has Wetherholt in the middle of it, as the late-hot-stove deal that shipped Brendan Donovan to Seattle cleared the path at second base for Wetherholt.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested that the rookie might already be the Cardinals’ best hitter. It’s a new era for the Cardinals, and though expectations for 2026 are modest, an NL Rookie of the Year run for one of the game’s top prospects would suggest that the Redbirds won’t be down for long. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: This is probably the last chance for Nolan Gorman as a starter in St. Louis. After hitting 27 home runs in 119 games in 2023, he hit just .203 in 2024 and .205 in 2025 as the strikeouts piled up.
He did a much better job in spring training of putting the ball in play after spending two weeks last offseason with Nolan Arenado’s personal hitting guru. Let’s predict that carries over to the regular season, and he hits .250 with 35 home runs. — Schoenfield
How their season can be a success: A Rookie of the Year campaign by Wetherholt would certainly be a good start. But let’s cast the spotlight on two other names: shortstop Masyn Winn and center fielder Victor Scott II. They’re elite defenders at premium positions. But if they could tap into a little bit more offense, the Cardinals would really be in business.
Winn, who just celebrated his 24th birthday, has slashed just .261/.312/.391 in two full seasons. Scott, 25, was a .216/.305/.296 hitter in his first full year in 2025. They’re still young enough in their careers to make you think they can unlock a little more with the bat. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 68-94 | (Doolittle’s odds: 2% playoff | 0.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The franchise’s lack of direction.
The Angels have not reached the postseason since 2014, the longest active drought in the majors. They have not won a postseason game since 2009. They somehow failed to capitalize on Shohei Ohtani’s six years in Anaheim and Mike Trout’s marvelous career. And yet, owner Arte Moreno refuses to launch a thorough, down-the-studs rebuild.
Despite the lack of success, the Angels’ farm system ranks 27th in baseball, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, and Logan O’Hoppe are young players who could serve as a long-term foundation, but the roster is an odd amalgamation after the front office acquired several veterans over the winter. Adding to the uncertainty, longtime team president John Carpino, Moreno’s closest confidant, retired last month. The Angels continue going nowhere. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Mike Trout, AL MVP. Let’s dream a little, shall we? It is, after all, springtime in the baseball world. The betting markets don’t rank any Angels particularly high in the awards races, so Trout it is.
We’ve heard tales of a revved-up sprint speed, a return to center field and improved health. Could we really be in for a Trout renaissance? It’s OK to be skeptical but man, would that be fun. It’s not that we’ve forgotten how great Trout used to be, but we could always use a healthy reminder. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Does Trout have anything left in the tank for his age-34 season? Is he really going to stick in center field on a regular basis? Let’s turn back the clock for a reminder of Trout’s greatness. Trout plays 100 games in center, 140 overall for the first time since 2018, and blasts 35 home runs to finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting.
How their season can be a success: Angels starters posted a 4.91 ERA last season, third highest in the majors. Avoiding another embarrassing season in a long string of them will require more production from their starting rotation. It means Jose Soriano, the Opening Day starter, needs to make a leap in his age-27 season. It means Grayson Rodriguez needs to stay healthy and show flashes of what he showed in Baltimore in 2023 and 2024. It means Reid Detmers needs to prove himself worthy of staying in a rotation. And it means someone from the group of Jack Kochanowicz, Ryan Johnson, George Klassen and Caden Dana needs to emerge. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 61-101 | (Doolittle’s odds: 0% playoff | 0.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Munetaka Murakami’s transition to MLB.
Murakami is one of the top sluggers in NPB history, setting the single-season home run mark for Japanese-born players with 56 in 2022 at just 22 years old. But concerns about his high strikeout rates — namely against elite velocity and secondary pitches — and defense led to an underwhelming free agent market. The White Sox, who are still in rebuild mode, swooped in to give him a two-year, $34 million contract.
Murakami spent most of spring training playing with Team Japan, going 6-for-16 with two home runs and a 1.257 OPS in the WBC. Most of that production, however, came against non-MLB pitchers. He’ll be tested this season. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Munetaka Murakami, AL Rookie of the Year. You might refer to the observations about Kazuma Okamoto’s bid in the Toronto section above, as it all applies here. Murakami, at least, is younger than Okamoto. Murakami will be a bedrock player in the middle of the White Sox lineup from the season’s outset, and if he stays healthy and mashes 25 to 30 dingers, he’ll get some support. – Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The White Sox improved by 19 wins from 2024’s all-time disastrous season. Though that still meant 102 losses, buried in that result was the fact that the White Sox were solid during the final three months, getting outscored only 375 to 360. And they were just 15-36 in one-run games overall.
With Grant Taylor, who didn’t allow a home run in 63 innings between Double-A and the majors, throwing 100 mph, look for the late innings to get better and the White Sox to improve another 19 wins. — Schoenfield
How their season can be a success: The White Sox have the makings of a fun offense behind young hitters such as Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas, Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel. But they need their rotation to keep them in games to avoid a third consecutive last-place season. Sean Burke and Noah Schultz taking steps forward will be vital, but Erick Fedde and Anthony Kay stabilizing the rotation will be just as important. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 58-104 | (Doolittle’s odds: 0% playoff | 0.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: The new front office’s overhaul of the organization from top to bottom.
The Nationals hired 36-year-old Paul Toboni to run baseball operations, and he quickly transformed the organization with a fresh look and out-of-the-box decisions. First, he hired 33-year-old Blake Butera as manager. Then, Toboni hired 31-year-old Anirudh Kilambi as general manager and made a series of other analytically focused hires.
Behind the scenes, the organization, with heavy investment from ownership, is fully embracing the technology necessary to consistently compete, catching up to most of its peers’ advances.
On the field, the Nationals, after trading All-Star lefty MacKenzie Gore and making minor additions this offseason, do not expect to contend for their first postseason spot since winning the World Series in 2019. They’re still in rebuild mode, but with a very different look. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Blake Butera, NL Manager of the Year. Let’s face it: The Nationals don’t have a lot of prime awards candidates. James Wood is a heck of a player and still getting better, but he’d have to go full Roy Hobbs to contend for an MVP in the current NL landscape while toiling at the bottom of the NL East. Thus, Butera has the clearest path to an award. As you can see, the Nationals’ projection is not that great. If they overachieve — by a lot — Butera might get some recognition. Incidentally, Butera is 33 years old. Pat Murphy, the winner of the last two NL Manager awards, is 67. You’ve got to love baseball. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Nationals have had five straight seasons with at least 90 losses. Make it six. Except it will be even worse: They lose more games than the Rockies and finish with the worst record in the majors. CJ Abrams and Zack Littell get traded. At least James Wood hits 40 home runs. — Schoenfield
How their season can be a success: If James Woods proves to be not just a good player, but a potential face of this franchise. The Nationals are basically seven years into this rebuild, with a new front office in charge. MacKenzie Gore has already been traded, and CJ Abrams should soon be, too.
This team — this fan base — needs someone to cling to. Wood was a dynamo in the first half last year, slashing .278/.381/.534 with 24 home runs in 95 games. But the strikeouts caught up to him, and his slash line fell to just .223/.301/.388 after the All-Star break. Still, he’s only 23 years old, with absurd power and an ability to draw walks. He’s by far the Nationals’ best hope. — Gonzalez
Projected record: 54-108 | (Doolittle’s odds: 0% playoff | 0.0% WS)
The thing we’ll be talking about most this season: Will they flirt with the wrong kind of history again?
With an 8-42 record after 50 games last year, the Rockies were on pace deep into May to break the mark for most losses in major league history that the White Sox set in 2024. The Rockies recovered to finish two losses better, but still finished with a run differential of minus-403, the worst ever.
Colorado finally hit the front office reset button, hiring longtime executive Paul DePodesta as president of baseball operations to replace general manager Bill Schmidt to course correct. DePodesta told ESPN’s Alden González that he is embracing the challenge of solving the crisis that is pitching in Denver. DePodesta didn’t overhaul the roster over the winter, instead signing four players to contracts of one or two years and making minor trades. The Rockies will look to avoid disaster. — Castillo
Most likely 2026 award winner: Paul DePodesta, MLB Executive of the Year. The label is “most likely,” not “likely.” That feels like a key distinction to make here. The scenario in which DePodesta wins this award is easy to imagine: The Rockies overachieve massively, and do so because DePodesta’s experiments in solving the Coors Field enigma pay off in obvious ways. However it plays out, the Rockies are already more interesting than they have been in several years. — Doolittle
One (realistic) bold prediction: Hunter Goodman was the Rockies’ All-Star rep last year — and a worthy selection as he finished with 31 home runs in his first full season in the majors. The power is legit as he homered 18 times on the road. Just seven primary catchers have hit 40 home runs in a season, including Cal Raleigh last season and Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza, who each did it twice. Goodman joins that select company with a 40-homer season plus another All-Star selection. – Schoenfield
How their season can be a success: DePodesta has emphasized the importance of embracing the difficulties of playing baseball at mile-high altitude and the need to push the boundaries on how to succeed at it. Just as important to him, though, is getting the most out of his young players. So, for the Rockies, the best success would be the conventional kind — a young starting pitcher such as Chase Dollander, and young position players such as Kyle Karros and Jordan Beck taking big steps forward, with Charlie Condon not far behind them. That group, along with Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, needs to form the nucleus after a wretched stretch. — Gonzalez
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