Two bets and an Eliminator pick for the men's tournament games Saturday

Mar 20, 2026, 02:29 PM ET

The 2026 men’s basketball tournament rolls into the second round Saturday with some giant matchups. Which are the games to bet on?

Throughout the tourney, I will provide my best bets for each round as well as my picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of Friday’s publication and subject to change.

Saturday’s best bets

(3) Michigan State -4.5 (-112) vs. (6) Louisville
Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET

The Spartans’ defense is the key here. Offensively, I don’t expect Michigan State to duplicate its 59% shooting from the field recorded against North Dakota State. But the Spartans’ defense will be equally menacing. It should be no surprise that Louisville shot 54% from the field and 52% from the 3-point range, but that won’t be the case against the Spartans’ D, which is 13th in adjusted efficiency. Louisville has played against a team in the top 20 in defensive efficiency six times this season and it has lost five times, with the only win coming over offensively inept Cincinnati. The Cardinals almost blew a 23-point lead in the second half. I’ll play against the 3-point variance of Louisville here and back the Spartans.

(1) Duke team total OVER 75.5 (-125) vs. (9) TCU
Game time: 5:15 p.m. ET

Duke survived a major scare from 16-seed Siena to advance. Duke also put forth it’s fourth-lowest shooting percentage from the field this season and its worst 3-point shooting percentage (19%) against the Saints. That will normalize and regress to the mean against TCU. The Horned Frogs are not a great D in terms of opposing shooting percentage, ranking 154th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Blue Devils should also feast inside as the more dominant rebounding team. TCU goes fast on offense, averaging just 16.7 second per possession, which is 75th in the nation. If the Horned Frogs are scoring, it will force Duke to continue pushing the pace. After a disappointing performance in the round of 64, I expect a focused effort from Duke on the offensive end.

Saturday’s Eliminator pick

Vanderbilt

The Commodores’ elite shooting and inside presence are worth backing. It’s telling that the lower-seeded team is favored here. I’m also willing to play against Nebraska’s 3-point variance and the high of its first-ever NCAA tournament win.

How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge

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