The 2026 season-opening Australian Grand Prix was certainly one to remember. Heading into Sunday, we had concerns about the cars, the racing, and a seemingly dominant Mercedes — before the Grand Prix itself actually produced a fair amount of excitement, overtakes and competitiveness.
But of course, there’s still so much to recap and debate.
We’ve looked at some of the sweeping generalisations being made about the sport after the first race of the year and judged whether they’re overblown or not.
Max Verstappen could quit the sport altogether
Max Verstappen is not having a good time with these new cars — at all. That was clear from his first media session in preseason testing and his mood has not got any better at all. That feeling was not helped by a bizarre crash out of qualifying on Saturday. Verstappen has long teased the idea that he would walk away from F1 should he not like it. Are these cars the nail in the coffin?
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Verstappen did not respond directly to a question on this on Sunday night, but he also did not deny it when the suggestion was put to him by ESPN. When asked if Formula 1 should be worried he could quit, he said: “I think what they should worry about is the rules, just focus on that.”
Verstappen is clearly one of the drivers pushing hard behind the scenes for changes, and Formula 1 would be foolish not to listen to him. While easy to just assume drivers are complaining for the sake of it, Verstappen stressed after the race that he is being vocal because he loves the sport — he said he wants it to be “Formula 1 on steroids,” a nod to his comment earlier in the year that the new rules have made it “Formula E on steroids”. Either way, we shouldn’t downplay this possibility.
Verstappen looks set to race at the Nurburgring again this year in an endurance race and his love for all things motor racing is no secret. F1’s new energy-dependent cars have been introduced at a time when Red Bull has also embarked on a brave new project, one that is admittedly in a much better place than many predicted, even if it’s not the class leader yet. Red Bull might well be able to cut into the gap to Mercedes over the year, but the deficit is big. Formula 1’s options for improving these rules seem limited, so if a quick fix is not on the horizon and Verstappen remains uncompetitive for a while with Red Bull, it’s not a stretch to say he will simply look to go and do something else.
Astonishingly, he would only be 33 by the time the rules change again. Verstappen would always have a route back to the sport given his talent and we have to take his concerns seriously. If he walked, it would be a brutal blow to the sport.
2:19
Have the new F1 regulations been successful?
ESPN’s Nate Saunders and Laurence Edmondson debate if the new Formula One regulations are successfully working.
F1’s new cars will be underwhelming to watch all season
Let’s not sugarcoat it. Qualifying was brutal, absolutely brutal, and the race was a strange spectacle. The start was oddly chaotic and the George Russell and Charles Leclerc fight did give F1 a positive news story to spin, but as many drivers said later, their yo-yoing fight back and forth did seem slightly contrived and overly dependent on their available batteries. Is this how F1 is going to be from now on?
Verdict: OVERREACTION (we hope)
Formula 1, the FIA and the teams are already in discussions about how to tweak these rules. Admittedly, quick and significant fixes seem unlikely, as the problems are rooted in the very core of the 50-50 split within the hybrid turbos. But several drivers pointed out that Albert Park was actually one of the worst places for the new engines to have been rolled out in competitive trim for the first time, given the lack of heavy braking zones needed to properly harvest energy.
Discussions are ongoing to mitigate the effects of what’s become known as super-clipping. Startling videos of Oscar Piastri’s car dropping upwards of 60km/h on approach to Turn 9 went viral after qualifying. The FIA had a slightly farcical U-turn on its own decision around the active aerodynamic regulations during the weekend and it does seem as though the governing body is struggling to get its head around the right thing to do.
However, we have to have faith. Formula 1 is the engineering pinnacle of motor racing and quite often, solutions are found, especially when the sport gives itself a larger data set. We’ve added the bit in brackets here because even some of the most glass-half-full members of the paddock have been struggling to get in line with this one. We have to hope they can, otherwise it will be a very difficult year of Formula 1 indeed.
2:05
Who’s the favourite to win the F1 Chinese GP?
ESPN’s Nate Saunders and Laurence Edmondson preview the Chinese Grand Prix as George Russell leads the championship after winning the Australian Grand Prix.
Russell and Mercedes will have title wrapped up ‘in a few months’
Lewis Hamilton suggested his former team will have the title wrapped up by the time the FIA clamps down on the controversial engine trick Mercedes are supposed to have achieved with its engine. Russell and Mercedes revealed the full extent of their dominance on Saturday with a comfortable front row lockout, followed by a one-two made less comfortable by the fast-starting Ferraris.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Mercedes did look good, but Ferrari’s starts are going to be a fascinating factor for a while this year. The point of difference is so significant, it’s startling, and there’s going to be a lot of places this year where Mercedes’ qualifying advantage is wiped away by Turn 1. While the verdict on the new style of F1 overtakes might have been overly negative, Mercedes and Ferrari have a curiously contrasting set of strengths that suggest when in range together their fights will be very close indeed. Mercedes appears to have a rocket ship in straight lines, but reigning world champion Lando Norris reasoned after the race that Ferrari’s car is the best through the corners by some distance. Paddock sources have suggested the same to ESPN.
Then there’s that looming FIA clampdown. No-one knows how much of the compression ratio controversy is the significant factor in Mercedes’ mega start to the year. Hamilton even said himself he hopes it is not and added he would be disappointed were that the case and the FIA had allowed it to stay inside the car.
Whatever the truth with Mercedes’ engine, we can’t ignore Ferrari’s situation this year. We saw another questionable strategic decision on Sunday, but the mood around the team has been very good for a while now. Charles Leclerc looks as good as ever, while Hamilton was right on his tail by the end of Melbourne’s race. It’s one race, and Ferrari might be playing catch-up early on, but there are enough factors in play here for us to be sure Ferrari is going to make Mercedes work for every win it goes for this year.
Aston Martin might be in a hole all season
Aston Martin’s opening race was a week of astonishing admissions and press conferences. First, the revelation that its car vibrates so much from the engine that Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll risked permanent nerve damage if they drove too long, then that those same vibrations had destroyed two of the four batteries the team can use (without incurring penalties) this year. Baffling stuff. Its car is still very slow and could not even get halfway through the first race of the year without needing to visit the pits.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The promise and potential of the Aston Martin project is still enormous, but it’s so difficult to imagine a major turnaround in 2026. Aston Martin is in a deep, deep pit of trouble and its rivals are not standing still. The green cars are weeks behind where the rest were in preseason testing and with every race it is not able to even do a race distance, that gap only increases.
What was most shocking about Melbourne was the sheer scale of Honda’s problems. The battery issue is mad. F1 teams are expected to use two batteries per car over the course of a season, but Honda blew through one on each car before the first qualifying session of the year.
Penalties later in the year will be forthcoming for that at some point. New team boss Adrian Newey is pushing hard for Honda to improve behind the scenes but his cajoling already seems to be causing internal frustration, even if both sides of the coin are publicly reaffirming the strength of the partnership. Honda must also be wondering if the famously impatient Lawrence Stroll even has the stomach for a project which could be two or three years off schedule.
We wish this was a different answer, but there’s no two ways about it: Aston Martin is in for a miserable year. It shouldn’t always be as miserable as the Australian Grand Prix, but it was supposed to be moving up the order in a big way this year. That was a false dawn. If you want to know why this verdict is so frustrating, go and find yourself an onboard of Alonso’s start and his first lap. Spellbinding stuff — the guy still has it. Whether he ever gets the car again to showcase it is a difficult one to know.
Audi will be F1’s fifth best team this year
Audi had a superb debut in Melbourne, with Gabriele Bortoleto claiming eighth position. The German manufacturer took over the Sauber team at the end of last year and Sunday’s race was the first time an Audi had competed in any F1 race, which is remarkable given its stature and its history in motor racing.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Full credit to Jonathan Wheatley, Mattia Binotto and the rest — Audi looks well ahead of where most experts had them a year or two ago. Some in the paddock last year spoke about the incoming Audi project with the same doom and gloom now taking place at Honda, but F1’s newest engine builder appears to be in great shape.
The gap between the big four and the midfield is enormous and breaking that will be a multiple-year job for any team, but Audi seem far and away the best equipped to do it. First of all, Mercedes’ customer teams are already raising concerns that their supplier has a much better understanding of the class-leading engine than they do — which is bad news for Alpine and Williams. The latter appear to be in a real mess as well. We know Aston Martin and Honda are going to be at the lower end of the championship this season, and you would back a manufacturer team to beat Haas over the course of the season, even if the American outfit has made a good habit of punching above its weight this year.
With all that considered, and with the strong position Audi appears to have put itself in, and then the fact it has the rapidly improving Bortoleto and the ever-consistent Nico Hülkenberg at the helm, it already looks like it could be one of the feel-good stories of F1’s new era.
Some quickfire verdicts
Isack Hadjar can break the curse of the second Red Bull seat
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
What a stellar debut Hadjar had — the occasion did not appear to be too big to him and he delivered everything he needed to. We’re not sure he can beat Verstappen over a season, but the curse was never about that — it was simply about delivering results anywhere close to the other car. Hadjar will be superb in 2026.
Carlos Sainz or Alex Albon will leave Williams
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The vision James Vowles had for Williams hinged on 2026, but the team finds itself brutally off the pace. You can see it on the faces of both drivers: this is not what they signed up for. Williams has two of the better talents of the grid and they might well garner some interest elsewhere.
Audi was interested in Sainz but he was not convinced enough about the project to commit — that might change if our own prediction comes true. It’s hard to see where Albon might go, but there can be nothing worse for a struggling team than two drivers who feel like they were sold a bag of goods.
Cadillac will be three laps off the pace all year
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Cadillac’s first race was hardly a barnstormer, but it was never meant to be. The team is still having big growing pains — and some little ones, like a car shedding its wing mirrors during the race — and reliability issues, and was a long way down on the rest by the end of Sunday’s race. Everyone in F1 knew Cadillac was going to have a steep learning curve joining the grid in line with a new set of regs, but Graeme Lowdon has built a very talented team of people and the running we have seen from Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas so far has justified going for experience over anything else.
3:09
Can George Russell win the F1 championship this year?
ESPN’s Nate Saunders and Laurence Edmondson react to George Russell winning the Australian Grand Prix in Formula One.
McLaren could be a distant third or fourth
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
After seeing Zak Brown and Andrea Stella build the benchmark team over the last few years, it was startling to see the papaya cars so off the pace in Melbourne.
Stella has already hinted that McLaren is still significantly behind on understanding its Mercedes engine the same way Toto Wolff’s team does, but has also said the team is a bit behind on its car too — although that might be a charitable way of softening the criticism of the team’s engine partner, as McLaren’s cars of the last few years have been the class of the field.
In an era which appears to be massively defined by the new hybrid engines, we can see a world where McLaren is just simply playing catch-up for far too long. It’s brave to bet against the reigning world champions, but the new rules set seems especially tough on customer teams at present.
Kimi Antonelli can win three or more races
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Kimi Antonelli had a bizarre opening race, with a massive crash in final practice having no real impact on his qualifying thanks to the supreme work of his team to fix his car. It said a lot about Mercedes’ engine that it was able to be so good after that rebuild job.
Ignore the erratic moments though — Antonelli is lightning quick and one of the grid’s most exciting young talents. Russell will be a tough nut to crack over the course of a season, but he hardly wiped the floor with his teammate on Sunday, especially considering Antonelli spent the first portion of the race battling back from a shoddy start. Watch this space — the Italian teenager is going to be on the top step of the podium a fair few times.
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