3 immigration numbers to know from our new poll: From the Politics Desk

This is the online version of From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Scott Bland breaks down the big takeaways from the latest NBC News Decision Desk Poll. Plus, Andrea Mitchell previews this week’s Munich Security Conference.

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— Adam Wollner

3 immigration numbers to know from the NBC News Decision Desk Poll

By Scott Bland

The new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey dug into U.S. adults’ attitudes about President Donald Trump and his immigration policies this month — and found some major changes compared with how things looked in 2025. Here are three things that stood out.

1. Trump’s approval on immigration has converged with his overall approval. Immigration and border security was one of Trump’s strong suits all through the 2024 campaign and the first year of his second term. Even when those numbers started to move into negative territory, they still remained above his overall ratings. But that wasn’t true in this poll, taken after immigration officers shot and killed two American citizens in Minneapolis in January. Trump’s approval on immigration and border security dipped to 40%, essentially even with his overall approval, which dipped to 39%.

2. Trump is getting more intense opposition on immigration, too. It’s not just that Trump’s approval on how he’s handling immigration and border security dropped from 47% in the August NBC News Decision Desk Poll. The share of adults who “strongly disapprove” leaped by 11 points. Among self-identified independents, the share strongly disapproving rose 15 points from August to now.

3. Americans want changes to ICE — the question is how far to go. A large majority of respondents said they wanted to see the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency changed, with a plurality (43%) saying they want reforms and 29% saying they want the agency abolished. Another 29% said they want it to keep operating as it is.

Among Democrats, there was a nearly even split on reform versus abolition — as the issue becomes a litmus test in party primaries as the 2026 midterms heat up.

Trump’s ‘wrecking ball politics’ loom large over Munich Security Conference

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

The central figure dominating this week’s annual gathering of world leaders, diplomats and members of Congress in Munich won’t even be there. But President Donald Trump is already the hot topic as participants begin arriving for a yearly security conference.

The conference is usually a forum for discussion and (mostly) polite debate, but conference leaders say this year they had to confront “the elephant in the room head-on,” what they are calling “the period of wrecking ball politics” in a 120-page report ahead of this week’s event. And they say the president of the United States is the “most prominent demolition man.”

Trump is a man who is proud of his ability to demolish buildings he wants to raze to clear the land for pet projects, like his ballroom. No one knows whether he has been briefed on the report of the Munich leaders who see him as willfully tearing down 80 years of postwar international laws and institutions.

The first shot in the verbal war now brewing in Munich came a year ago from Vice President JD Vance. Leading the U.S. delegation, he lectured the Europeans that the real threat they faced was not from Russia or China, but from themselves — accusing them of putting Western culture at risk by permitting too much migration. His German hosts were stunned.

Then the administration issued a national security directive downgrading Europe as a top priority in favor of focusing more on the Western Hemisphere. That was followed by the U.S. military operation to attack alleged drug running boats in the Caribbean, a policy widely criticized in Europe. And, finally, the extraction of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and the anointing of his hard-line vice president, Delcy Rodríiguez, to succeed him.

But if America’s chief executive is troubled by European polls showing widespread public anger over his threats to take over Greenland, a Danish territory and NATO ally, and his comments that Canada should be the 51st state, he is showing no sign of backing off. Nor has he apologized for his Davos speech disparaging NATO’s willingness to sacrifice for the U.S. — even though Denmark and other allies had lost a significant number of troops fighting for America in Afghanistan. It was a remark not easily forgiven by the Danish people, sparking protests in Copenhagen.

Trump shows no sign he plans to mend fences with allies. To the contrary, this week, he posted a photo of European leaders in the Oval Office last summer — but added a doctored map making it look as though Greenland, Canada and Venezuela were all part of the U.S. And now he is threatening to block a bridge Canada built to create a link with Michigan, even though it didn’t cost the U.S. government a cent.

European leaders say they want to diversify their trade deals to China and South America, hoping to become less dependent on the unpredictable U.S. president. But privately, many acknowledge that could take years. And the U.S., with or without Trump, is still the most dominant superpower — no matter what they say about him in Munich.

🎤 On the Hill: Attorney General Pam Bondi lashed out at judges and lawmakers at a contentious House Judiciary Committee hearing, with the Justice Department’s handling of its Jeffrey Epstein records and its attempts to prosecute critics of Trump causing the most tension. Read more →
🧳 Jobs report: The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the labor market added 181,000 jobs in all of 2025, far fewer than the 1.46 million jobs that were added in 2024. But hiring increased by 130,000 roles last month, significantly more than the 55,000 additions economists had expected. Read more →
✈️ Clear for takeoff: The grounding of aircraft at El Paso International Airport in Texas early this morning was in response to the U.S. military’s testing technology that can be used to take down drones. Read more →
⚖️ In the courts: The Trump administration failed to indict Democratic lawmakers over a video urging members of the military and intelligence communities not to comply with unlawful orders. Read more →
🔎 Vote watch: Trump has instructed the CIA and other spy agencies to provide intelligence about the 2020 election to Kurt Olsen, a former campaign lawyer who led efforts to try to overturn that year’s election. Meanwhile, a federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking Michigan’s voter roll data.
💰 Battle for the Senate: Campaign contributions from corporate political action committees emerged as a dividing line among Democratic Michigan Senate candidates at a forum hosted by the United Auto Workers. Read more →
🗳️ Race for the House: J.P. Cooney, a former deputy to ex-special counsel Jack Smith, announced that he is launching a congressional bid as a Democrat in Virginia. Read more →