Dan Graziano
Multiple Authors
NFL free agency is unpredictable. But that’s not going to stop us from trying to predict it.
With the NFL’s legal negotiating window set to open at noon ET Monday and the new league year starting at 4 p.m. ET next Wednesday, it’s time to start figuring out who’s going where and for how much money. So this represents what I think might happen next week with 20 of the top free agents, based on the reporting I’ve done on and around free agency so far.
Some of these projections will look silly a week from now. Some of them could look absolutely brilliant. But this is a snapshot of how the people around the NFL I’m talking to are sizing things up with a few days to go, knowing of course that a lot can change over the course of one frantic weekend. So enjoy. Get mad. Get your hopes up. But no matter what, get ready for some big contracts.
Jump to a player:
Willis | K.Walker | Etienne | Pierce | Evans
Shaheed | Doubs | R.Walker | Linderbaum
Hendrickson | Phillips | Oweh | Mack | Mafe
Franklin-Myers | Lloyd | Q.Walker | Brown
Watson | Cook | Others
Contract projection: Two years, $44 million with $32 million guaranteed
This would represent a $1 million-per-year improvement over the contract Justin Fields signed with the Jets last year. That deal paid Fields $20 million guaranteed in 2025 and guarantees $10 million of his $20 million salary in 2026. Willis doesn’t have nearly as much NFL game experience as Fields did this time last year, but he has better vibes around him than Fields did after his Pittsburgh benching and could have multiple teams interested. Willis has six career starts, including one last season, and he has thrown six TD passes to zero interceptions over the past two years (along with three rushing scores).
Predicted landing spot: Arizona Cardinals
Contract projection: Three years, $44 million with $22 million guaranteed
The Super Bowl MVP hits free agency with the benefit of a market full of teams looking for explosive playmakers at the running back position. With Breece Hall having set the market with a $14.3 million franchise tag from the Jets, Walker can play multiple teams off each other and land at just above that number with the first year (and a chunk of the second year) fully guaranteed. He ran for 1,027 yards last season and can make plays out of the backfield as a pass catcher (31 receptions).
Predicted landing spot: Washington Commanders
Contract projection: Three years, $39 million with $20 million guaranteed
Much like Walker, Etienne has multiple teams interested and can continue a surprisingly good year for the top of the free agent RB class. Jacksonville drafted two running backs in last year’s draft, so it can move on from Etienne. The 27-year-old was 11th in rushing last season at 1,107 yards.
Predicted landing spot: Tennessee Titans
Contract projection: Three years, $80 million with $55 million guaranteed
The franchise tag for Pierce would have been $27.3 million if the Colts had decided to use it on him rather than placing the transition tag on QB Daniel Jones. Indy would still like to have Pierce back, but after leading the league in yards per reception each of the past two years, he’ll have a market that could drive the price up beyond that mark. This puts him right behind the franchise number but with more guarantees than just one year.
Predicted landing spot: Los Angeles Chargers
Contract projection: One year, $15 million fully guaranteed
Evans will have other teams interested, and possibly even offering more money. But he has only ever played for the Buccaneers, and that relationship is strong enough that I’ll need to see him in a different uniform before I believe it. Like teammate Chris Godwin Jr. a year ago, Evans should test the free agent waters before deciding to stay in Tampa Bay. Injuries limited him to 368 yards last season, but he cracked 1,000 yards in each of his previous 11 years in the league.
Predicted landing spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Contract projection: Three years, $40 million with $20 million guaranteed
It sounds like Shaheed will have a market outside of Seattle, where he was a vital part of the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run as a receiver and a return man. His speed is enticing to a lot of teams, and those that swing and miss on Pierce could be very happy signing Shaheed at a lower cost. He had 687 receiving yards between the Seahawks and Saints, and including the playoffs, he scored three return TDs (two kickoffs, one punt).
Predicted landing spot: Washington Commanders
Contract projection: Three years, $49 million with $30 million guaranteed
Doubs is still 25 years old (turns 26 in April) and is viewed by teams as a receiver who can thrive in a number of different schemes. He could be the guy this year that you look at and say, “Wow, he got that much?” Doubs caught 55 passes for 724 yards and six touchdowns in 2025.
Predicted landing spot: San Francisco 49ers
Contract projection: Four years, $80 million with $50 million guaranteed
A three-year starter for the Packers and a proven left tackle who just turned 26, Walker should do very well in a league that’s always looking for good offensive linemen. His 93.8% pass block win rate was 11th among tackles last season. With 2024 first-round pick Jordan Morgan set to take over at left tackle in Green Bay, Walker gets to test the market and should land a deal similar to the one Dan Moore Jr. got from the Titans a year ago.
Predicted landing spot: Cleveland Browns
Contract projection: Four years, $90 million with $60 million guaranteed
This would be an average salary of $22.5 million per year, which would blow the top off the center market. Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey is currently the highest-paid center at $18 million per year. But by hitting unrestricted free agency at age 25 in an offseason where a ton of teams are looking for starting centers and guards, Linderbaum should cash in big-time thanks to a bidding war between multiple teams — one of which just had its 27-year-old center retire unexpectedly this week.
Predicted landing spot: Chicago Bears
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Contract projection: Three years, $84 million with $42 million guaranteed
Hendrickson is hitting free agency at 31 years old and coming off a season in which he played only seven games. But he had 17.5 sacks in each of the two seasons before that, and teams believe he can still be a difference-maker on a short-term deal. This one would guarantee him $28 million in 2026 along with $14 million of a $28 million 2027 salary. So, he’d finally get the future-year guaranteed money the Bengals wouldn’t give him. And perhaps he gets it while reuniting with former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo in Indianapolis.
Predicted landing spot: Indianapolis Colts
Contract projection: Four years, $92 million with $32 million guaranteed
Phillips comes with that injury history, but he played well for the Eagles after being traded to Philadelphia from Miami at the deadline — and they have at least some interest in trying to keep him. Two of his five sacks last season came in Philly. He’s a young free agent (still just 26), and that helps mitigate the injury risk a little. It’s possible he does a one-year prove-it deal somewhere if his market doesn’t do what he hopes it does. And it’s also possible a division rival snatches him away.
Predicted landing spot: Washington Commanders
Contract projection: Four years, $76 million with $42 million guaranteed
Oweh was a huge hit with the Chargers after they acquired him in a trade deadline deal with Baltimore. He had 7.5 sacks in 12 games in L.A., along with three more in the team’s playoff loss to the Patriots. Los Angeles has massive needs on the interior of the offensive line, and I already predicted a big WR deal from it for Pierce. But with Khalil Mack also hitting free agency, the Chargers might stretch to keep a mutually beneficial relationship alive.
Predicted landing spot: Los Angeles Chargers
Contract projection: One year, $18 million
At 35 years old, it feels like Mack has reached the year-to-year portion of his career. He can still be a huge help to a contender — he had 5.5 sacks in 2025 — and some team might see him as the player it’s been missing. In this case, we’re sending him to a team that will be looking to repeat as Super Bowl champs and is likely losing a number of key players on both sides of the ball in free agency.
Predicted landing spot: Seattle Seahawks
Contract projection: Three years, $48 million with $25 million guaranteed
Seattle is trying to keep as many of its free agents as it can, but the Super Bowl champs are likely going to lose some of them. With the Seahawks’ ability to draft and coach Mike Macdonald’s proven ability to scheme up pressure, I figure Mafe gets a payday somewhere else and the Seahawks trust in their ability to replace him. Mafe had just two sacks last season, but he had nine in 2023.
Predicted landing spot: New England Patriots
Contract projection: Three years, $40 million with $15 million guaranteed
Franklin-Myers turns 30 in September, so he might not get the attention some of the younger guys on the defensive line market get. But he has been a productive part of one of the best defenses in the league the past two years in Denver, and we have him reuniting with his former Jets coach, Robert Saleh.
Predicted landing spot: Tennessee Titans
Contract projection: Four years, $56 million with $40 million guaranteed
Hitting the open market at 27 years old following a second-team All-Pro season, Lloyd will generate interest from a number of teams looking to upgrade at the off-ball linebacker spots. This allows him to get a deal that just tops the one Zack Baun got from the Eagles in free agency one year ago, from the team he played for last year.
Predicted landing spot: Jacksonville Jaguars
Contract projection: Three years, $42 million with $20 million guaranteed
Opinions seem to vary on Walker, who’s only 25, had 128 tackles in 2025 and seems bound to leave Green Bay for a new team. Some think he could push for high-end linebacker money, in the high teens on average. Others have him closer to $10 million per year. We’ll split the difference and send him to a team that has money to spend and needs help everywhere on the defense.
Predicted landing spot: Las Vegas Raiders
Contract projection: Three years, $30 million with $15 million guaranteed
A surprisingly buzzy name at last week’s combine, the 26-year-old Brown should draw interest from multiple teams. He pulled in two interceptions last season in Jacksonville. And he should land a strong deal from a team looking for CB help but unwilling or unable to spend in the Riq Woolen/Jaylen Watson/Jamel Dean end of the market.
Predicted landing spot: Philadelphia Eagles
Contract projection: Three years, $50 million with $20 million guaranteed
The Chiefs have to keep somebody, right? Watson has been a good player for them (two interceptions last season), and keeping him doesn’t cost what they were going to have to pay Trent McDuffie on an extension.
Predicted landing spot: Kansas City Chiefs
Contract projection: Three years, $42 million with $20 million guaranteed
Another graduate of the Steve Spagnuolo Academy, Cook hits the market at 26 and with high-level playoff experience on his résumé. After he had 85 tackles for them last season, the Chiefs will try to keep him but might not offer enough.
Predicted landing spot: Houston Texans
Five other interesting situations
Taysom Hill, TE: One of the league’s truly unique players turns 36 in August. Would Sean Payton bring his old Swiss Army knife to Denver?
Brandon Aubrey, K: The Cowboys will likely put a second-round restricted free agent tender on him if they can’t sign him to an extension soon. Would some team be willing to give them a second-rounder and make Aubrey the league’s highest-paid kicker?
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR: A sneaky buzzy name the past few days, Robinson had 280 targets and 185 catches over the past two seasons with the Giants. Former Giants coach Brian Daboll is the new offensive coordinator in Tennessee, where the Titans need reliable dudes for Cam Ward to target.
David Edwards, G: A full-time starter at guard for Buffalo the past two years, Edwards is a free agent along with Bills center Connor McGovern. Buffalo probably can’t keep both, and with a ton of teams looking for guard and center help, Edwards is a name I’ve heard a lot lately.
K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge: He’s 26 years old and had a nice year for the AFC champion Patriots, who could be seeking big names at the edge rusher position. That could make Chaisson a solid get for some other team looking for upside.
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