Bill Barnwell
Multiple Authors
NFL free agency is almost upon us. As the league attempts to maneuver through the snowstorm blanketing the East Coast and descend on Indianapolis for the combine, there are going to be plenty of discussions about which players are about to sign where and for how much money. Most organizations have spent the early parts of the offseason sorting out the players who are coming available, and we’re now two weeks away from teams being able to negotiate and agree to terms with them. The legal negotiating window opens at noon ET on March 9, and free agency officially opens at 4 p.m. ET on March 11.
So, I’m here to produce my annual free agent tiers. This week, I’ll be going position by position on the offensive side of the ball. Next Monday, I’ll do the same on defense.
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The goal isn’t to land players on specific teams (although I’m going to lob out a few suggestions along the way) but instead to get a baseline of what the market looks like from a team perspective. How many real starters are available at each position? Which positions might benefit from having some cap casualties hit the market over the next couple of weeks? Where can teams be patient? And where should they be more aggressive, knowing that there’s a huge drop-off from their favorite option to everyone else?
Naturally, I have my own opinions about players, like everybody else does, but this is generally more about where I think the league will land on certain guys as opposed to how much I think the market should bear for an individual player. I’ll also include restricted free agents and where they would fall, although those players are extremely unlikely to move this offseason. Let’s begin at QB.
Jump to a position:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Franchise players
Tier 1 quarterbacks hit free agency about once every two decades. There are none on the market this season.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
While acknowledging that Joe Flacco eventually landed in the Pro Bowl Games after others opted out or declined their invitations, there aren’t any QBs who should be considered Pro Bowlers based on the merit of their play on the open market at the moment.
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Daniel Jones, Colts
Potential cap casualties: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Jones’ season ended prematurely yet again after he tore an Achilles in November, but he was a revelation for a dominant Colts offense during the first half of the campaign. It’s tough to imagine Jones playing quite as well over a full year in 2026, especially since he’ll be recovering from the injury, but both Jones and the Colts should be incentivized to see if a reunion produces similar results. It would be a surprise if Jones landed a multiyear guarantee in free agency, but it takes only one team (or a well-timed bluff from an agent) to make that happen.
Tagovailoa’s tenure with the Dolphins is likely to come to an end, with Miami paying Tagovailoa $52 million in cash to play somewhere else in 2026. He has his issues, including inconsistent arm strength, an inability to create out of structure and a worrisome track record of concussions, but he’s also two years removed from leading the league in passing yards and one from leading it in completion percentage. As the point guard in a short-to-intermediate passing game, Tagovailoa’s accuracy helps play him up into competent starter territory.
Tagovailoa with an upper-middle-class QB contract was a problem. Tagovailoa at the veterans minimum — which is what a new team would likely pay him in 2026 — could turn out to be a very useful contributor in the right scheme. It’s also incumbent on Tagovailoa to pick the right landing spot to rebuild his value in advance of potentially landing a starting job in a more advantageous situation in 2027. Could he be the quarterback for the Chiefs in September before Patrick Mahomes returns from his knee injury?
Projected average annual salary: $30-45 million for Jones, $1.5 million for Tagovailoa
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams; Aaron Rodgers, Steelers; Malik Willis, Packers
Potential cap casualties: Kirk Cousins, Falcons; Justin Fields, Jets; Geno Smith, Raiders
Someone’s going to take the plunge on Willis, who was virtually unplayable before looking eminently comfortable in three spot starts for an injured Jordan Love over the past two seasons. Willis has averaged a whopping 10.9 yards per pass attempt and 6.2 yards per rush in Green Bay, comfortably shouldering a meaningful role in the offense even while taking over midgame, as he did against the Bears late last season.
Is he a Matt LaFleur creation? That’s too simplistic of an argument for me. LaFleur did an excellent job of building both quarterback run staples and play-action concepts off those ideas for his young quarterback, but Willis had to execute those plays at a high level, too. (We’re long past the point where simply introducing those plays is going to flummox professional defenses.) By leaving the Packers, Willis enters an uncertain world where his new team might not have a clue. The logical thing would be for that offense to install the same concepts that worked for Willis elsewhere and go from there, but, well, this isn’t always a rational league.
Garoppolo and Rodgers are heading in opposite directions. Garoppolo’s value goes up each year as he doesn’t play, safely ensconced in a great offense behind Matthew Stafford. Rodgers’ value goes down as he continues to step onto the field, with the future Hall of Famer offering virtually no ceiling for a Steelers team that remains desperate to make the playoffs and entirely incurious about what it would be like to go any further. For these Steelers, the mid-40s version of Rodgers is the perfect quarterback.
With the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers and Vikings all potentially in the market for new starting quarterbacks this offseason, there should be at least one Week 1 starting job available for Cousins, Fields or Smith. It’d be easiest for the last team in the game of musical chairs to talk itself into Cousins, who has the lengthiest track record of playing reasonable football and was fine for the Falcons in 2024 before injuries led to his benching. Personally, I might have more faith in Smith looking like a passable starter behind a competent offensive line, something he hasn’t seen since 2023.
Projected average annual salary: $20-30 million for Willis, $8-16 million for everyone else
2:54
Why Terron Armstead can see Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins parting ways
Terron Armstead joins “The Rich Eisen Show” and weighs in on whether Tua Tagovailoa should leave the Miami Dolphins.
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Joe Flacco, Bengals; Marcus Mariota, Commanders; Gardner Minshew, Chiefs; Mitchell Trubisky, Bills
Mariota has done very well as the backup to Jayden Daniels in Washington. He has posted a 56.9 Total QBR over two years in Washington, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over that span. He’s one of the four best backup quarterbacks in the NFL, which is enough to earn what would be starter money at a handful of other positions.
Projected average annual salary: $6-12 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Kyle Allen, Lions; Teddy Bridgewater, Buccaneers; Sam Howell, Eagles; Tyler Huntley, Ravens; Trey Lance, Chargers; Kenny Pickett, Raiders; Tyrod Taylor, Jets; Skylar Thompson, Steelers; Carson Wentz, Vikings; Russell Wilson, Giants; Zach Wilson, Broncos
The Seahawks, Vikings and Eagles have all traded for Howell over the past couple of years, but he has thrown just 14 passes over that time frame, with the Vikings preferring to add Wentz over the possibility of playing Howell. Wentz led the league in both interceptions and sacks in his lone year as a starter with Washington.
Pickett has also bounced around the league over that same stretch, finishing fourth in Cleveland’s four-man rumba for three spots last summer. He’s 16-11 as a starter without exhibiting any sort of sustained offensive proficiency.
Projected average annual salary: $1.2-4 million
Running backs
Tier 1: Franchise players
We might see a running back or two earn the franchise tag because $14.5 million is pretty reasonable relative to what a back might earn as part of a multiyear guarantee. But I’m not sure there are any true franchise-caliber backs in the vein of Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey entering free agency.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Breece Hall, Jets
The spectacular seasons produced by Barkley and Derrick Henry in 2024 served to remind teams that getting talented running backs out of hopeless situations can produce outsized results. There wasn’t really a free agent RB in the 2025 class who fit that profile, but Hall and the bereft offenses he played in during his four years with the Jets would qualify. From 2023 through 2025, the average Hall carry was expected to gain just 3.9 yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That was the fourth-lowest average for backs with 600 attempts or more over that span.
The Jets didn’t trade Hall to the Chiefs for a middle-round pick when they had an opportunity at the deadline, suggesting that they saw their lead back’s future in green. Given that the franchise tag is $14.5 million and the transition tag comes in at only $11.7 million, keeping Hall around would be financially reasonable. But if Hall gets the chance to hit the open market, he should run away and never look back.
Projected average annual average salary: $12-15 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars; Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
Walker is the most notable name in this mix after winning Super Bowl MVP. Teams are going to be able to talk themselves both into and out of the Seahawks RB. As the broadcast mentioned during the title game, Walker is inconsistent as a receiver and isn’t even an average pass blocker, which will keep teams from employing him as an every-down option. It’s notable that after the Zach Charbonnet injury, the Seahawks used George Holani on 33.3% of the snaps in the Super Bowl instead of simply giving Walker all three downs.
2:05
Will Kenneth Walker III still be with the Seahawks next season?
The “Get Up” crew debates whether the Seahawks should do all they can to keep Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III.
On the other hand, Walker is capable of creating explosive plays if given a little bit of a window, with the acceleration to burst through the second level and the vision to create extra yardage on gap runs. Those explosives can be the difference in otherwise close games, with the first half of the Super Bowl as a notable example. Walker has fumbled only once in each of the past three seasons, which also helps alleviate some of the inefficiency that comes with his home run-hitting style.
Walker’s success on this second contract is going to come down to a handful of potential big plays each year. If those runs go for 12 yards, Walker’s going to be underwhelming relative to other veteran backs who offer more consistency and a wider range of skills. If those runs go for 30 or 40 yards, though, Walker’s going to put together a 1,400-yard season and make it to the Pro Bowl. Some team is going to take that bet.
Projected average annual salary: $8-12 million
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons; J.K. Dobbins, Broncos; Rico Dowdle, Panthers; Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers; Brian Robinson Jr., 49ers; Rachaad White, Buccaneers
Potential cap casualties: James Conner, Cardinals; Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings
Exclusive rights free agents: Kimani Vidal, Chargers
There are a few big names and former starters here, but I wonder whether there might be more interest in some of the players who haven’t been starters for very long, mostly because they’re younger and have taken fewer hits. Allgeier had a 1,000-yard season as a rookie with the Falcons before Atlanta drafted Bijan Robinson. He remained competent as both a runner and receiver in the 1B role, hasn’t fumbled once as a pro and has touched the ball only 511 times over the past three years.
Likewise, Gainwell was always a part-time back during his time with the Eagles, but by the end of his lone year in Pittsburgh, he had emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ most frequent target. Offenses probably don’t want to build as much of their passing game out of swing screens and checkdowns to Gainwell as the Steelers did, but he can catch the football and posted a 47.4% success rate as a runner last season, the sixth-best rate in the league among backs with 100 carries or more.
Projected average annual salary: $3-7 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Austin Ekeler, Commanders; Najee Harris, Chargers; Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
Potential cap casualties: Antonio Gibson, Patriots; Joe Mixon, Texans; Devin Singletary, Giants
Restricted free agents: Emari Demercado, Cardinals; Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos; Keaton Mitchell, Ravens; Chris Rodriguez Jr., Commanders; Sean Tucker, Buccaneers; Emanuel Wilson, Packers
Injuries are the trend throughout this tier, as Ekeler, Gibson, Harris and Mixon are all coming off seasons either compromised or completely washed away by serious injuries. Pacheco was on the field in 2025, but he hasn’t been the same since fracturing his fibula in 2024, with the Chiefs not getting the same physicality or explosiveness from the seventh-round pick that they saw earlier in his career. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry over his first two years and is down nearly a full yard over the past two.
Restricted free agents almost never change hands in the modern NFL, but there are some candidates who will at least inspire conversations in buildings this spring. Mitchell has battled injuries and wants to break every run to the outside, but he has been extremely explosive in limited time with the Ravens. Tucker has had a couple of league-wide RB1 weeks when given an opportunity to touch the ball in Tampa Bay over the past two years. And Rodriguez was a valuable part of Washington’s running back rotation and has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over his three pro seasons.
These guys would have a market as unrestricted free agents, but it’s difficult to imagine another team sacrificing draft picks to add them this offseason.
Projected average annual salary: $1.5-3 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Ameer Abdullah, Colts; Michael Carter, Cardinals; Ty Chandler, Vikings; Nick Chubb, Texans; AJ Dillon, Eagles; Jerome Ford, Browns; Hassan Haskins, Chargers; Khalil Herbert, Jets; Travis Homer, Bears; Kareem Hunt, Chiefs; Alexander Mattison, Raiders; Jeremy McNichols, Commanders; Raheem Mostert, Raiders; Kene Nwangwu, Jets; Dare Ogunbowale, Texans; Jaret Patterson, Chargers; Dameon Pierce, Chiefs; Miles Sanders, Cowboys; Zamir White, Raiders
Can one of these guys serve as a team’s RB2? For backs like Chubb, Hunt and Sanders, who haven’t played regular special teams snaps in years (or at all), finding a spot where they can serve as the primary backup is their path to staying in the league. Third backs typically need to be at least capable special-teamers to be active on a weekly basis, which discourages front offices from rostering vets in those roles.
Projected average annual salary: $1-1.5 million
Wide receivers
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: George Pickens, Cowboys
I wrote at length about the wide receiver market a few weeks ago and will refer back to the longer profiles I wrote there on many of these guys. Pickens was a first-team All-Pro for me in his debut season with the Cowboys, as the massive upgrade in quarterback and offensive scheme unlocked much of his untapped potential. Without the franchise tag, Pickens’ play would attract offers in the $35 million range, making the tag an easy call for the Cowboys.
Projected average annual salary: $28.8 million
1:27
Fowler: The Cowboys-Pickens situation could get messy
Jeremy Fowler, Damien Woody and Tim Hasselbeck discuss the future of George Pickens with the Dallas Cowboys.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Alec Pierce, Colts
The tag could also be in play for Pierce, who offers tantalizing downfield ability in the sort of way we might not really have seen since the DeSean Jackson days in Philadelphia. Teams will see his 2025 breakout as evidence that Pierce needed better quarterback play to blossom, and although Daniel Jones was a massive upgrade on Anthony Richardson Sr., there will be a fair number of coaches who see their signal-caller as a better deep ball thrower than Jones.
With the tag at $28.8 million, a Colts team that has a lot of work to do elsewhere might have to pick between tagging Pierce or moving on from Michael Pittman Jr., who is in the final year of his deal. If Pierce does become a free agent, he might not crack $29 million per year in average salary, but there are going to be a lot of teams that see his combination of size and speed and wonder if they can get even more production out of him.
Projected average annual salary: $21-25 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Romeo Doubs, Packers; Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Potential cap casualties: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers; Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
As I just explained, Pittman could be on the move. And it would be truly shocking if Aiyuk wasn’t on the move this offseason, as his relationship with a 49ers team that seemed hesitant to give the 2020 first-round pick a contract extension in the first place has quickly gone south. It’s tough to really gauge where Aiyuk is at in his recovery from a torn ACL or what his future holds, so putting him here is more of a placeholder than an evaluation of what the soon-to-be 28-year-old can do when healthy.
Evans is coming off his first sub-1,000-yard campaign as a pro, with injuries ruining the future Hall of Famer’s season. It was a bit of a surprise when he didn’t have a huge market in free agency two years ago, and the 6-foot-5 wideout returned to the Bucs for just $41 million over two years. Evans responded with one of the most efficient seasons of his career on a route-by-route basis in 2024, but injuries have cost him 12 games over the past two seasons.
It’s tough to imagine Evans wearing any other jersey, and when dealing with franchise icons, ownership has a habit of getting involved to keep a player around. If Evans does leave, though, one logical landing spot would be Las Vegas, where former Bucs executive John Spytek is the general manager, and presumptive first pick Fernando Mendoza needs playmakers.
Projected average annual salary: $12-21 million
0:46
Riddick: Mike Evans will be in high demand
Louis Riddick and Booger McFarland react to Mike Evans playing in 2026 and being set to be a free agent.
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Keenan Allen, Chargers; Tyreek Hill, Dolphins; Christian Kirk, Texans; Rashid Shaheed, Seahawks
Potential cap casualties: Darnell Mooney, Falcons; Calvin Ridley, Titans
Exclusive rights free agents: Jalen Coker, Panthers
Allen spent most of last offseason unsigned before eventually returning to the Chargers on a one-year deal for $3 million plus incentives. He quickly returned to form, topping his 2024 totals for receptions (81) and receiving yards (777) despite running 62 fewer routes than he did with the Bears. Allen suggested that he preferred to stay in Los Angeles after his contract expired in Chicago, which obviously limits his market.
All’s well that ended well for Shaheed in Seattle, with the former Saints wideout helping his new team win the Super Bowl via his work as a returner and in the run game. Shaheed narrowly topped 22 receiving yards per game as a Seahawks player, though, making him the sort of reverse Kenneth Walker by virtue of adding little value in what should be his primary role. I’d like to see Shaheed get a full offseason with an offense to see what he can do, and he adds meaningful value as a returner, which should compensate for the relative lack of receiving work. He and Walker might end up in the same financial ballpark, which could create a pick-one-or-the-other scenario for GM John Schneider.
Projected average annual salary: $6-12 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Tutu Atwell, Rams; Calvin Austin III, Steelers; Hollywood Brown, Chiefs; Jahan Dotson, Eagles; Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Broncos; Jalen Nailor, Vikings; Tyquan Thornton, Chiefs; Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dolphins; Olamide Zaccheaus, Bears
This tier’s really more about trying to land a particular archetype than about any sort of dramatic separation of skill. Zaccheaus is a useful blocking wide receiver whom coaches love to have as they install their run game. Atwell and Thornton are the speed threats, with Thornton coming off his best year as a pro with the Chiefs. Brown had a 16-target game in the opener after Xavier Worthy went down early but topped six targets exactly one time the rest of the way — although he did play 16 games for the first time since 2021.
Projected average annual salary: $2-6 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Braxton Berrios, Texans; Kendrick Bourne, 49ers; Dyami Brown, Jaguars; Noah Brown, Commanders; Treylon Burks, Commanders; Brandin Cooks, Bills; Gabe Davis, Bills; Greg Dortch, Cardinals; Devin Duvernay, Bears; DeAndre Hopkins, Ravens; Van Jefferson, Titans; Tyler Johnson, Jets; Zay Jones, Cardinals; Tyler Lockett, Raiders; Scotty Miller, Steelers; Skyy Moore, 49ers; David Moore, Panthers; Gunner Olszewski, Giants; Tim Patrick, Jaguars; Kalif Raymond, Lions; Hunter Renfrow, Panthers; Josh Reynolds, Jets; Sterling Shepard, Buccaneers; JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Steelers; Tylan Wallace, Ravens; Cedrick Wilson Jr., Dolphins
Potential cap casualties: Curtis Samuel, Bills
Restricted free agents: John Metchie III, Jets
I hope we haven’t seen the last of another future Hall of Famer in Hopkins, who averaged 1.8 yards per route run while running about 11 routes per game for the Ravens. Was he being saved for a playoff run that never happened? There’s a luxury in rostering a player like Hopkins when he won’t play on special teams and might not even do much in practice a fair amount of the time, which is why he might not sign until later in the year, if at all.
There are a few other quietly intriguing players here. Bourne had that out-of-nowhere 142-yard game when the 49ers upset the Rams in early October, went for 142 more the following week against the Bucs, then never topped 44 yards again the rest of the way. Cooks wasn’t doing much in New Orleans before seemingly becoming Josh Allen’s favorite downfield target down the stretch and into the postseason; he was open for plenty of opportunities but caught only 10 of 22 passes thrown in his direction, including most famously missing out on a jump ball with Ja’Quan McMillian that helped end Buffalo’s season.
Projected average annual salary: $1-2 million
Tight ends
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons
I know. Pitts is not going to win many awards for most complete football player. He’s not going to offer much physicality as a blocker. He’s going to go missing from games for stretches of time. And he’s not a serious threat in the red zone — although he has very pleasingly increased his touchdown total by one each year, starting with one in his rookie season and advancing to five in his fifth campaign.
And heck, even in 2025, Pitts’ resurgent year was really a product of a three-game stretch without Drake London in the lineup, during which Pitts managed 24 catches for 338 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged nearly 113 receiving yards in those contests and just over 42 receiving yards per game in the other 14 matchups. Is it worth paying Pitts to be a franchise tight end when he was really that guy for only three games?
Well, have you seen the tight end position recently? Pitts was second among all tight ends in receptions (88), receiving yards (928) and first downs (51) in 2025, and he was 10th in yards per route run (1.8). It’s fair to point out that Pitts really accelerated only after London went out injured, but how many teams have a tight end who could step in and do a credible job as their top receiver if their lead wideout went down?
If you think of Pitts as a glorified wide receiver, well, he’s still probably good value in this ballpark. The franchise tag for tight ends in 2026 is projected to come in at $16.3 million, but the transition tag will be only $13.9 million. Adjusting for cap inflation, that’s roughly what guys like Darnell Mooney and Gabe Davis were getting when they inked three-year, $39 million contracts two years ago in free agency. Pitts is coming off a far more productive year than either player, and he’s still only 25 years old.
I would have my reservations about paying Pitts, but I can certainly see the argument for why the Falcons — or another team — would do so.
Projected average annual salary: $13-16 million
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
There’s a gap between Pitts and the rest of the field …
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Dallas Goedert, Eagles; Travis Kelce, Chiefs; Cade Otton, Buccaneers
Otton is one of the few tight ends who might be able to suggest he could take over the lead role in an offense for a brief stretch of time, given that he had a run as a power slot after Chris Godwin Jr. and Mike Evans both went down in 2024. He racked up 25 catches, 258 yards and three scores over a three-game span, but that’s a relative outlier in his pro career. With the Bucs facing so many potential free agents, some are going to inevitably fall through the cracks, and Otton’s ability to play in line and operate out of the slot will appeal to teams that want to operate out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) more often in 2026.
Goedert is 31 years old and hasn’t topped 600 receiving yards in a campaign since 2022, but he was really the only Eagles player who benefited from Kevin Patullo’s ascension into the offensive coordinator role in 2025. Patullo seemingly got Goedert wide open on a vertical route up the seam for a big gain each week and schemed up 11 touchdowns for the veteran tight end, more than double his career high. Teams obviously can’t count on that sort of red zone performance again, but Goedert is aging relatively gracefully as far as tight ends go.
Kelce’s not leaving Kansas City, which means he’ll be negotiating with one team and won’t have the benefit of getting offers from other organizations. The Chiefs are also very willing to pay their legendary tight end a premium, given that there’s a 0% chance any other team would have paid Kelce $17 million in 2025. Kelce obviously doesn’t need the money and isn’t going to catch Tony Gonzalez’s career receiving yardage record for tight ends, but you can’t really ask the greatest tight end in NFL history to play for a little over the league minimum, you know?
Projected average annual salary: $9-13 million
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Isaiah Likely, Ravens; David Njoku, Browns; Chig Okonkwo, Titans
Potential cap casualties: Dawson Knox, Bills; T.J. Hockenson, Vikings; Cole Kmet, Bears; Jonnu Smith, Steelers
A lot of big names here, including some significant cap casualties. Smith’s $7 million salary in 2026 is non-guaranteed, and after racking up just 222 receiving yards in his first year with the Steelers, the veteran lost his biggest booster when offensive coordinator Arthur Smith left to join Ohio State. Kmet and Knox are useful second tight ends who would both make at least $10 million in 2026, none of which is guaranteed. The Bears and Bills probably want their respective veterans back, but they’ll try to squeeze at least a modest pay cut out of them, given that neither has been productive enough to earn that same sort of money if they hit the open market.
Hockenson looked like a success story for deposed general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah after being acquired from the Lions, but his breakout in Minnesota between 2022 and 2023 was more a product of increased volume and route share than improved efficiency. Hockenson then tore an ACL during the 2023 campaign, and in a broken passing game last season, he averaged 1.2 yards per route run. He is still only 28 years old, but his $16 million in 2026 cash compensation is the most for any tight end in football by more than $3 million, and none of it is guaranteed.
I wouldn’t be stunned if Likely and Okonkwo exceeded my expectations and ended up making eight-figure average salaries, given that there will be teams that want to lean into more multi-tight end sets after seeing what the Rams did in 2025. Likely has never topped 500 receiving yards in a single season and is coming off a year that was impacted by a broken foot, but there will be other teams that see him as a potential difference-maker if given the true TE1 role in an offense. Remember that the Bears gave Trey Burton a four-year, $32 million contract after he won the Super Bowl with the Eagles despite the fact that Philly’s backup tight end had racked up just 629 receiving yards over his first four seasons.
Projected average annual salary: $6-11.5 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Daniel Bellinger, Giants; Grant Calcaterra, Eagles; Greg Dulcich, Dolphins; Noah Fant, Bengals; Connor Heyward, Steelers; Tyler Higbee, Rams; Taysom Hill, Saints; Austin Hooper, Patriots; Charlie Kolar, Ravens; Foster Moreau, Saints; Adam Trautman, Broncos; Darren Waller, Dolphins
Restricted free agents: Jake Tonges, 49ers
Dulcich quietly got back on NFL radars in 2025. The Dolphins picked him up off waivers from the Giants at the end of camp, and although he didn’t play at all until Week 8, the former Broncos third-round pick had 335 receiving yards over Miami’s final nine games of the season. From Week 9 onward, Dulcich averaged 2.7 yards per route run, which was second behind George Kittle among tight ends who ran 100 routes over that span. He’s obviously not Kittle as a receiver or blocker, and Dulcich has been waived in each of the past two seasons, but somebody’s going to pay a little bit to see whether that late-season performance was real.
Projected average annual salary: $2-5 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Mo Alie-Cox, Colts; Pharaoh Brown, Cardinals; Harrison Bryant, Texans; Tyler Conklin, Chargers; Josiah Deguara, Cardinals; Zach Ertz, Commanders; John FitzPatrick, Packers; Kylen Granson, Eagles; Chris Manhertz, Giants; Quintin Morris, Jaguars; Donald Parham Jr., Steelers; Durham Smythe, Bears; Ian Thomas, Raiders; Jelani Woods, Jets; Shane Zylstra, Lions
Any of these guys would cause an announcer to be very surprised if they caught a touchdown pass in 2026. Ertz is the lone exception, but the 35-year-old tore an ACL last season and might not be able or willing to play again in 2026.
Projected average annual salary: $1-2 million
Offensive linemen
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: Tyler Linderbaum, Ravens
Linderbaum is approaching free agency only because of an unnecessary, anachronistic quirk in the league’s franchise player rules. Offensive tackles get paid about 40-50% more than comparable centers, but the league lumps all linemen together for the purposes of fifth-year options and franchise tags. Linderbaum’s $23.4 million fifth-year option would have paid the 2022 first-round pick $5.4 million more than any other center in football, which is why the Ravens declined that figure. And the 2026 franchise tag for linemen is $27.9 million, which would be nearly $10 million more than Creed Humphrey’s league-high deal at the position.
Most teams use the franchise tag values to help structure and scale contracts. The Ravens obviously hoped to sign Linderbaum to an extension after declining that fifth-year option, but without the tag to help keep his value in line, Linderbaum had every reason to decline their offers and hit the market to negotiate with 31 other teams. (And now you know why NFL owners are never going to get rid of the franchise tag.)
The proliferation of former Ravens coaches and executives around the league has only increased Linderbaum’s value. The Chargers employ former Ravens executive Joe Hortiz as general manager and need help at center. The Giants, who hired former Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh and handed him significant power as part of the deal, could sign Linderbaum and move John Michael Schmitz Jr. into a utility role. Former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken earned the top job in Cleveland, and the Browns have literally an entire offensive line hitting free agency. These teams could all be having serious thoughts about signing Linderbaum.
Defensive linemen can physically overwhelm Linderbaum in pass protection at times, but his athleticism and ability to work on the move as a puller will be very appealing around the league. He won’t get to that franchise tag figure, but it would be a surprise if Linderbaum wasn’t the highest-paid center in NFL history within the first 24 hours of free agency opening.
Projected average annual salary: $20-26 million
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Linderbaum’s unique status makes him the only Pro Bowl-or-better-caliber lineman to hit free agency.
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: G Joel Bitonio, Browns; G David Edwards, Bills; G Daniel Faalele, Ravens; C Connor McGovern, Bills; G Isaac Seumalo, Steelers; G John Simpson, Jets; OT Braden Smith, Colts; G Wyatt Teller, Browns; G Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jets; OT Rasheed Walker, Packers; OT Jonah Williams, Cardinals
Potential cap casualties: C/G Elgton Jenkins, Packers; OT Jawaan Taylor, Chiefs
If there’s a player who isn’t a household name in position to get paid more than the vast majority of fans expect this offseason, it’s Walker. There are at least four teams that should be in the market for a starting left tackle this offseason. Walker is the only one available. He’s 26 years old and hasn’t missed a game in three years while protecting Jordan Love’s blind side in Green Bay.
Dan Moore Jr., a below-average left tackle during his time in Pittsburgh, signed for the fifth-largest average annual salary and the third-highest guarantee of any free agent a year ago when he joined the Titans. Jaylon Moore, a backup with 12 career starts in San Francisco, signed for two years and $30 million with the Chiefs. There’s a legitimate chance that Walker, a better tackle than either of the (unrelated) Moores, gets the largest guarantee of any free agent this offseason on a deal that’s worth something in the ballpark of $25 million per year.
And yet, there have to be some flashing red lights here. The Packers don’t seem all that concerned about letting Walker waltz out the door. He has committed 27 penalties over three years as a starter, including seven holding calls. At the same time, Walker ranks fifth in pass block win rate over the past three years, and his sack allowed rate (1.2%) and quick pressure allowed rate (2.0%) are both better than league average when we look at left tackles with 1,000 or more pass-blocking snaps over that time. In a league where teams can never have enough at tackle, Walker is going to attract truly high-end offers in a couple of weeks.
One of his teammates is an interesting potential cap casualty. Jenkins excelled at guard for years, and the Packers’ offense collapsed in the 2024 wild-card loss to the Eagles after Jenkins got hurt in the first quarter. The Packers moved the veteran to center this offseason, and Jenkins struggled in the new role before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in another loss to the Eagles.
Jenkins is due $19.5 million in 2026, none of which is guaranteed. He’s now on the wrong side of 30, and Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst is more aggressive about moving on from veterans as they approach or pass 30 than anybody else in the NFL. Jenkins’ days in Green Bay are probably numbered, and I would expect another team to move the veteran back to guard and reap the benefits.
Projected average annual salaries: $15-25 million (tackle), $12-19 million (guard), $9-16 million (center)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: G Spencer Burford, 49ers; OT Jack Conklin, Browns; G James Daniels, Dolphins; OT Jermaine Eluemunor, Giants; G Zion Johnson, Chargers; OT Braxton Jones, Bears; G Rob Jones, Cowboys; C Cade Mays, Panthers; OT Trey Pipkins III, Chargers; C Ethan Pocic, Browns; G/OT Jamaree Salyer, Chargers; G Kevin Zeitler, Titans
Potential cap casualties: G Mekhi Becton, Chargers; C/G Graham Glasgow, Lions; G/OT Tytus Howard, Texans; C Ryan Kelly, Vikings; OT Terence Steele, Cowboys
This is the most dangerous tier of linemen for NFL executives. It’s one thing to pay a solid or good player like he’s great in Tier 2 or Tier 3. At least you’re landing a starter. It’s reasonable enough to take a swing on a couple of veterans in Tier 5 and Tier 6. Even if you strike out, well, you’re not counting on those guys to succeed, and they’re not making all that much money.
But Tier 4 is where teams find linemen who aren’t close to being sure things and end up paying them meaningful money, guaranteeing starter roles and ultimately getting disappointed. With so few young, talented, experienced offensive linemen hitting the market, there’s typically a frantic rush to get Tier 4 players after those better options are signed, which leads to some hopeless contracts.
What makes things so difficult is that it’s entirely possible to talk yourself into players in this tier panning out. Guys like Conklin and Zeitler have been Pro Bowlers in the past, although Conklin’s athleticism has been shredded by knee injuries and Zeitler didn’t look like the same guy with the Titans as a 35-year-old. Burford, a disappointment earlier in his career, had his best pro campaign after the 49ers installed him at left guard. Mays filled in for an injured Austin Corbett and had a career year at center for the Panthers. Braxton Jones was a passable, low-end starting left tackle when healthy for most of his run with the Bears.
You want to believe! And sometimes, of course, these guys do live up to expectations and serve as solid starters. It’s just a very painful place to be when you get to Week 1 having paid a guy real money to start and already want to bench him before Week 2.
Projected average annual salaries: $4-12 million (tackle), $3-10 million (guard), $2.5-8 million (center)
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: G Kayode Awosika, Lions; OT Larry Borom, Dolphins; OT Trent Brown, Texans; G/OT Brady Christensen, Panthers; C/G Austin Corbett, Panthers; C Luke Fortner, Saints; OT Charlie Heck, Buccaneers; G Ed Ingram, Texans; G Teven Jenkins, Browns; OT Fred Johnson, Eagles; G/OT Josh Jones, Seahawks; OT Joseph Noteboom, Ravens; G Chris Paul, Commanders; G/OT Trevor Penning, Chargers; C/G Danny Pinter, Colts; C/G Sean Rhyan, Packers; OT Cam Robinson, Browns; OT Elijah Wilkinson, Falcons; G/OT Andrew Wylie, Commanders
Potential cap casualties: C/G Nick Allegretti, Commanders; C/G Bradley Bozeman, Chargers
Exclusive rights free agents: OT Theo Benedet, Bears
You’re going to see a fair number of combo centers, guards and tackles at this tier because a lot of players are holding on to jobs by playing multiple roles. Being able to play inside or outside or as a sixth/seventh offensive lineman might be the difference between winning a roster spot or bouncing around practice squads. Guys like Brown, Noteboom and Robinson aren’t good ideas at left tackle this late in their careers, but if they can fill in for a week, that might be enough to separate from other tackles who can play only on the right side.
There might be a younger player or two who gets paid something closer to starter money in this mix. Fortner was dumped by the new Jaguars regime, but he had a solid year filling in on the interior of the Saints’ line when Erik McCoy went down injured. Ingram was a major liability during his time with the Vikings and continued to struggle in pass protection with the Texans, but there were some bright spots for the 2022 second-round pick, including a de-cleating of Colts linebacker Germaine Pratt in November.
In most cases, though, these are veteran backups being paid to offer some sense of security off the bench.
Projected average annual salaries: $2-6 million (tackle), $2-4 million (guard), $1.5-3 million (center)
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: C/G Ryan Bates, Bears; OT Kelvin Beachum, Cardinals; C Trystan Colon, Lions; G Liam Eichenberg, Dolphins; OT George Fant, Commanders; OT Stone Forsythe, Raiders; C Matt Hennessy, 49ers; G Will Hernandez, Cardinals; OT D.J. Humphries, Rams; G Mike Jordan, Bengals; OT Kendall Lamm, Dolphins; OT Vederian Lowe, Patriots; OT Max Mitchell, Jets; OT Thayer Munford Jr., Patriots; G/OT Evan Neal, Giants; OT Yosh Nijman, Panthers; OT Chukwuma Okorafor, Jets; G Dylan Parham, Raiders; G Lucas Patrick, Bengals; G/OT Andrus Peat, Steelers; G/OT Matt Pryor, Eagles; G Dillon Radunz, Saints; G Dalton Risner, Bengals; C Austin Schlottmann, Giants; OT Trent Scott, Commanders; OT Justin Skule, Vikings; G Cole Strange, Dolphins; OT Brett Toth, Eagles; OT Olisaemeka Udoh, Titans; G Greg Van Roten, Giants; G Cordell Volson, Bengals; OT Landon Young, Saints
Potential cap casualties: G Alex Cappa, Raiders; OT James Hudson III, Giants
Restricted free agents: OT Austin Deculus, Chargers; G Jordan Meredith, Raiders
Many of these players suited up for meaningful snaps in 2025, but it’s tough to see teams looking at their tape and believing they’re ready for another go-around in 2026. Many were notable for being the most frustrating member of their respective offensive lines. Hudson, who began the season as the starting left tackle for the Giants, was benched after committing four penalties in a two-minute span in Week 2. He didn’t play another offensive snap until Week 18.
Projected average annual salaries: $1-2 million
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